Our record against top 8 teams

[BeeEmmAre]

Originally posted by PerthSwannie
I think we are in deep poop this year. Our win/loss against the top 8 is poor. The next 2 weeks will show how well we are doing at home(even though they are bottom 8 teams. At least our away record is OK!!

I`m not feeling comfortable about it all.

Another seat on the bandwagon available. Who wants it?

[NMWBloods]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Our record against top 8 teams

Originally posted by barry
Are you seriously concerned about our loses to st Kilda and collingwood going into the finals ?
I'd feel pretty comfortable against both those sides at the moment.

Only because they seem to be struggling more than us now, but we've seen before how quickly it can turn around.

I'm not highly confident against any of the other finals sides at the moment.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by BeeEmmAre
Another seat on the bandwagon available. Who wants it?

Real supporters don't get on bandwagons...

[PerthSwannie]

Originally posted by BeeEmmAre
Another seat on the bandwagon available. Who wants it?

Hey!

Who said I was giving up my seat. I`m just buckleing up the seatbelt for the finals ride.

YEEeeeeeeeeeeeeHAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

[barry]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Our record against top 8 teams

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Only because they seem to be struggling more than us now, but we've seen before how quickly it can turn around.

without Mcguire, St Kilda's entire structure is collapsing. If they have to play Rix as a CHB, then its dire. Plus our finals thrashing of the last year caused many scars.
Collingwood caught us at a bad time. Fully focussed I think we have them covered.

I'm not highly confident against any of the other finals sides at the moment.

Realistically, I'm as confident as I was last year.

WC: We can match them. Have done for 3 years. Lynch's form is the only worry. Quite a big worry really.
Adel: Our worst matchup, luckily seem to be in free-fall. Burton and Rucuito out are massive blows to their structure.
Melbourne: A bit of a front runner. I think the pressure of a final (hopefully played here in sydney) would expose them.
St Kilda: Like I said. There flag hopes broke with McGuires leg.
WB: We run AND we are tall. They only run. No fear there.
Freo: I think we can cover Freo. They are playing like us in 2005 (total team committment). Still think we have the matchwinners.
Collingwood. See above. Could beat us, but rely on Rocca and Tarrant to much, and they are too inconsistant.

We'll need to play exceptional football from 4th, but doable.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Our record against top 8 teams

Originally posted by barry
without Mcguire, St Kilda's entire structure is collapsing. If they have to play Rix as a CHB, then its dire. Plus our finals thrashing of the last year caused many scars.
Collingwood caught us at a bad time. Fully focussed I think we have them covered.

I agree, but I also expected that to be the case earlier in the year, particularly as they were in a flat spot too. I think StKilda is finished unless their opponents completely underestimate them.

Realistically, I'm as confident as I was last year.

I'm probably much the same, which is disappointing as I expected earlier in the season that we had taken our game up a level.

WC: We can match them. Have done for 3 years. Lynch's form is the only worry. Quite a big worry really.

It is because the main thing that WC did not have was a key forward. With Lynch in his current form I think they probably would have won the GF last year.

Adel: Our worst matchup, luckily seem to be in free-fall. Burton and Rucuito out are massive blows to their structure.

Also no Perrie, McGregor and Hart.

Melbourne: A bit of a front runner. I think the pressure of a final (hopefully played here in sydney) would expose them.

I think it depends on injuries. If they have a full side back in for finals I wouldn't underestimate them.

St Kilda: Like I said. There flag hopes broke with McGuires leg.
WB: We run AND we are tall. They only run. No fear there.

On a big ground they have the potential to outrun us.

Freo: I think we can cover Freo. They are playing like us in 2005 (total team committment). Still think we have the matchwinners.

They have a pretty balanced side now. Their main problem will be experience and keeping their head. I'm not sure if they can do that.

Collingwood. See above. Could beat us, but rely on Rocca and Tarrant to much, and they are too inconsistant.

Collingwood really seem to be struggling, but they always give us a close game.

We'll need to play exceptional football from 4th, but doable.

Yes, but we need a huge improvement, not just over our current form but over last year as well.

[SimonH]

On current form, the flag is the Weagles' to lose. Amazing because for a run of about 8 weeks this year (finishing when they played us), they played utterly mediocre football. But as Adelaide has proved, 'current' form in minor rounds doesn't mean an awful lot when it comes to winning premierships. Form in 4 weeks' time counts for plenty.

I think only an extreme optimist would back any of the Woods, St Kilda or Dogs to be premiership threats. (However, if the Woods finally find something and tear Carlton a new one next week, and we don't do the same to Brisbane, we could find ourselves in some real difficulties keeping on top of their percentage.)

I think the same has to be said for Fremantle, despite their blistering form. If you look at premiers (and also grand finalists) for years back now, the common denominator is 'consistent finals appearances in previous years'. Teams do not come from not making the finals for the previous couple of years, to become grand finalists (much less premiers).

Melbourne are an absolute wildcard, not least because where they finish is in their own hands. Think of this: if they win next week (Geelong) and then beat Adelaide in Adelaide in R22, the following week they'll be turning up to play Adelaide in Adelaide! How high would their confidence be (and how shattered Adelaide's confidence) for that game? They could almost sniff a grand final from that position. On the other side of the ledger, if they finish 5th-8th, their finals fadeouts in recent years would mean that you'd probably back them to go out in the 1st week.

If Sydney can make the top 4 (which relies not only on 2 good-sized wins from us, but at least one of Freo and Melbourne losing a game), then I think the real question in relation to our ability to make the grannie, is whether we can beat Adelaide. Because even though it's possible that everything works out vaguely analogous to last year and we don't have to play them, something tells me that Sydney will need to beat Adelaide to go back-to-back.

Of course, as others have no doubt pointed out, it still remains possible that we could miss the 8 entirely. For those who believe in the power of coincidence, this is one of those eerie ones: going into the same fixture (Brisbane at Homebush) roughly this time last year, Sydney were gunning for a top 4 position, but it remained remotely technically possible for us to miss the 8. See this (fortunately, needlessly pessimistic) thread.

PS Across an entire year, I think that a team's W:L record (and as a supplementary, its percentage) is a better guide than its W:L record against 'top 8 teams'. How well teams play against other sides, i.e. their net win:loss record, is not necessarily a guide to how well they played in their game against Sydney (e.g. Essendon were fairly reasonable in our first meeting, Roos played pretty well against us, Freo were shocking). And if we had a magic W:L ratio against top 8 sides but were still on 12:8, that would mean that we'd dropped plenty against bottom 8 sides, which would create plenty of cause for concern as well. A rough but more reasonable guide to our finals prospects is to check our percentage against top 8 sides, i.e. ensure that we don't consistently get shellacked when we play quality opposition. Which generally we don't.