Rd 22 Scenarios

[Mike_B]

Come Sunday afternoon, we will know exactly what our fate will be win, lose or draw our game. With all the other teams in the 8 bar Collingwood playing before us, we will know whether we have a chance at making the top 4 and who our opponent would be if we do.

If either Melbourne or Freo lose, we can still make the top 4, if both win, the best we can do is 5th.

However, even if we can't make top 4 come Sunday, we will also know whether we are guaranteed a home final in week 1, or if we need a win to make sure of that. If St Kilda beat the Lions on Sat night, we will be sitting in 6th, battling it out with Collingwood for the other home final. You would expect Collingwood to beat the Roos so if that were to happen as well, we would need to win to finish 5th and play the Dogs at home in Week 1. Lose, and we will head to Melbourne to play either St Kilda or Collingwood (their percentage is VERY close, so it could be either side depending on margins next weekend).

[swans05]

assuming we win
both freo & melbourne win we finish 5th and play Bulldogs
1 of freo or melbourne win we finish 4th, both wce and adel win we play west coast at subi. wce lose adel win we play adelaide at aami, both lose we play wce at subi
both freo and melbourne lose we finish 3rd, both wce and adel win we play adelaide at aami, adel win wce lose we play wce at subi, both lose we play adel at aami
Most likely is West Coast at subi in round 1 on todays effort should beat them

[573v30]

Given the "red hot" form Freo have, it's hard for them to lose even if they tried as Port are much weaker in key match-ups.

Adelaide vs. Melbourne is the ultimate decider: Adelaide have lost the last 3 and with more injuries on the way, they're chances of winning the flag have been severely reduced. Melbourne haven't looked convincing either and their record at AAMI is crap. They couldn't beat the Cats without Neitz and the Crows defence will be too good for a Neitz-less Demons forward line.

Swans should beat Carlton comfortably and if Fev doesn't play, half their score is gone. Melbourne should lose next week and the Saints will probably humiliate the Lions (face it, they're @@@@). A top 4 spot has got to be ours...

[tawfiq]

dont know about adeliade beating melbourne, a couple of weeks ago it wouldve been guaranteed, but with their current form and injuries to several key players, melbourne does have a good chance, having said that, after their games this week both teams will be out to redeem themselves and both will have sore tired legs

[Thunder Shaker]

We play Carlton. Carlton have not won in Sydney since 1993 (six wins at home against them since). Carlton have not beaten us this century (last win 30 April 2000, eight wins in a row against them since, which is a club record against Carlton). I think we can assume a home win against them is likely, notwithstanding our mediocre home record this year.

Obviously, we need to win this game. A win won't guarantee top four and the double chance, but a loss will jeopardise a home final.

Our best chance of a top-four finish is for Adelaide to beat Melbourne at home. However, Adelaide's season has fallen apart in the last five weeks, with only one win in that time. The Crows also have injury concerns and will need a bit of luck to beat Melbourne at home.

Fremantle look very good right now. The days of Fremantle being the tipsters' nightmare appear over, with eight wins in a row. I don't see them losing at home against the Power.

So, much as I hate to say this, we will be barracking hard for both Adelaide-based teams this weekend. Go the Crows! Go the Power!

[floppinab]

Go the Power!

eeeaawwww I feel so dirty

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by floppinab

Go the Power!

eeeaawwww I feel so dirty

They have the later game. If Adelaide beat Melbourne we can barrack for Fremantle instead.

[Bart]

Originally posted by tawfiq
dont know about adeliade beating melbourne, a couple of weeks ago it wouldve been guaranteed, but with their current form and injuries to several key players, melbourne does have a good chance, having said that, after their games this week both teams will be out to redeem themselves and both will have sore tired legs

Dees have not won at AAMi since 2001. Lost last 8 games there by an average margin of 46 points

[swantastic]

Originally posted by Bart
Dees have not won at AAMi since 2001. Lost last 8 games there by an average margin of 46 points

Lets hope the trend continues.

[robbieando]

Originally posted by Bart
Dees have not won at AAMi since 2001. Lost last 8 games there by an average margin of 46 points

Including the last three games against the Crows at AAMI all have been lost by at least 70+ points (including a 90 point loss last year). So not a happy hunting ground for the Dees. But if they are going to turn around history you would think all the factors are pointing in their favour this week of all weeks.

[dimelb]

When it comes to football matches, history is bunk, form and injuries are everything. We'll finish fifth.

[Young Blood]

Looking ahead a few more weeks (gasp!) if we make it into the prelim final, it's most likely to be away to Adelaide or Freo.

Assume all the clear favourites win this week: us, Dogs, St K, Coll, Freo & WCE.

If Melb win against the Crows, we finish 5th. Beat WB in first final, travel to play loser of WCE & Melb. Win that, into a prelim against Adelaide or Freo. A tough path just to qualify for the GF.

If Adel win, we finish 4th. Travel to WCE in week 1. Sound familiar?
- if we beat WCE, we get a home prelim, against Adel/Freo/StK/Coll/Melb.
- if we lose, we play St K/Coll/Dogs at home in week 2. Win that, we're again into a prelim against Adel or Freo.

Not surprisingly, our best chance of back to back is for Adelaide to reawaken enough to beat Melbourne this week, and then for us to get over WCE. But I fear that any other path might put the premiership out of our grasp. Having to travel to Adelaide or Freo and win, and then back up in the grand final would be a tough ask indeed - much harder than last year when we had the prelim in Melbourne.

The only upset this week that would significantly aid our cause would be for Port to beat Freo, which would put us and a Melbourne team in the top 4 (the latter raising the possibility of a Melb PF if we lose in week 1).

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by dimelb
When it comes to football matches, history is bunk, form and injuries are everything. We'll finish fifth.

I tend to agree in this case.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by Young Blood
The only upset this week that would significantly aid our cause would be for Port to beat Freo, which would put us and a Melbourne team in the top 4 (the latter raising the possibility of a Melb PF if we lose in week 1).

Go Port

[Zlatorog]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I tend to agree in this case.

Me too.