What the stats say for Saturday

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  • SimonH
    Salt future's rising
    • Aug 2004
    • 1647

    #16
    Bringing three kind-of independent chains of thought together:
    a) the ol' Blighty bottom 6 theory
    b) the '4 players who are playing their first GF' story that's had a run this week, and
    c) the 'who will stop Judd and Cousins in the 3rd and especially 4th quarters?' issue,

    I actually reckon that a good nomination for the 6 players who we're relying on to win us this thing are:
    Nick Malceski: Really hurts oppositions, breaks lines, quality disposal, makes it impossible for the opposition to stop our run off half-back merely by playing an 'attacking tagger' on Tadhg. If you were going to pick one guy to come from the clouds and be the hero, you'd back Mal all the way.
    Jarrad McVeigh: Put simply, we cannot win if Cousins, Judd and Kerr all have a day out. At least one of them must be held down; we're relying on McVeigh to repeat the dose from 3 weeks ago, at least for the first 3 quarters.
    Ted Richards: Saw him referred to today as 'The Barometer': when he's playing well, Sydney is playing well (although you could easily argue that the causative relationship is the other way around). If he's dropping back into the hole taking marks in front of Lynch, Hansen et al, West Coast heads will drop.
    Stephen Doyle: Dean Cox had 27 disposals last week. Can you believe it? Compared with Adelaide's ruck division, the effect was that the Weagles had another quality player in the midfield. Darren Jolly will have to work his arse off to stop Cox from dominating again, and so will definitely need strong back-up to ensure he doesn't wear himself out; plus Donk should be thrown forward every now and again to put the Weagles' defensive structure out. He'll at least look more dangerous than Gardiner did in '05!
    Nic Fosdike: He's quick. He's a pretty useful tackler. He looked very sharp against Freo. He has a happy history of stepping up in the GF. He's the midfielder who tends to spend the most time on the pine. You want a guy to wear Cousins or Judd like a glove in the 3rd and/or 4th quarters, if their existing opponent is starting to tire? Fossie's gotta be your man.
    Nick Davis: Again, a lot of time on the bench so will be fresh come the business end. Did some really important stuff in the clinches in the 4th quarter in the 2005 GF. You wouldn't use him as a specialist tagger, but rather a counter-attacker: if he's bursting out of the packs when the Weagles' midfielders are tiring at the end, it's them trying to stop us rather than vice versa.

    I wouldn't suggest that the above are our bottom 6. But we're relying on the reliables-- Kirk, JBolt, BBBH, Leo Barry, CBolt, ROK etc-- to maintain their form and do what we know they can do. The above is more of a list of the 'unknown quantity' players: if they all play to the best of their ability, we'll give it an almighty shake.

    Comment

    • Norris Lurker
      Almost Football Legend
      • Jan 2003
      • 2979

      #17
      West Coast are going with the symmetrical approach.

      In 2005, West Coast beat Sydney by a kick at Subiaco in the qual final. Sydney got through to the grand final after coming from behind to win an interstate prelim final. A West Coast player won the Brownlow. Sydney won the flag.
      In 2006, Sydney beat West Coast by a kick at Subiaco in the qual final. West Coast got through to the grand final after coming from behind to win an interstate prelim final. A Sydney player won the Brownlow...

      The symmetrical approach can be seriously flawed however. Best illustrated in 1984-85 when Essendon and Hawthorn had symmetrical seasons in the buildup. But on grand final day, the symmetry was blown away when the Bombers blitzed the Hawks to go back to back.

      Follow me on Twitter - @tealfooty

      Comment

      • Zlatorog
        Senior Player
        • Jan 2006
        • 1748

        #18
        100% agree. That is why I don't believe in those patterns and stats. It'll all go down to who wants premiership more. Our guys or teh opposition.

        Comment

        • cowcar
          Pushing for Selection
          • Aug 2005
          • 89

          #19
          Tough one this. But there is one factor I haven?t seen mentioned, and that is the amount of travel the Weagles have done in the last few weeks, as well as games. Their game against the crows was a tougher game than the Swans Freo (not saying the swans freo wasn?t a tough game, but by about 5 mins into the last quarter, it was over). Which will have a big impact on them overall.

          Something the media hasn?t picked up on yet, has been BBBH?s form in the finals. Last year, he was focused on in the lead up to all the finals? and whilst he played well, his goal return was (working roughly from memory here, so feel free to correct me) 8 goals for the 4 finals. So far this finals series he has kicked 11 from 2 games? which must be a concern for WC.

          Also, WC were in a bit of trouble against the crows, it was till Biglands went off, that they started to get their run happening. So a big game from Jolly and doyle, and they will struggle. Plus, as a smokey, plop the Donk down in the forward line (he is quite good there when he has his confidence), and WC will start having more trouble?.
          season 2012- top 4 here we come

          Comment

          • Albert Park
            On the Rookie List
            • Aug 2005
            • 181

            #20
            Originally posted by Dr Diabolical
            I still haven't seen who is going to stop Judd. Ablett is destroyed by Judd every time. The Goodes v. Judd matchup only seems to work for a half.

            Prior to the GF, the last time Kerr played against us was the QF when he had 24 poss and kicked 1 goal.

            Given how few goals are kicked in our games against WC, 2 goals to Lynch could be critical.

            Hunter moving forward is always predictable yet it still seems to work.

            Doyle has really not shown a lot yet and is no Ball replacement.
            Gee, I'm glad you logged in.
            I just hope you dont bother going to the game
            Mr Roos knew what he was doing'
            John Longmire is taking it to an art form
            We dont know how lucky we are to be Swans supporters

            Comment

            • Albert Park
              On the Rookie List
              • Aug 2005
              • 181

              #21
              here is my proposal:

              Start of the GF Hunter goes to Harass MOL. Magic grabs him, Hall starts sprinting towards the pair, Magic shoves Hunter towards Hall at the last second, Hall raises elbow and sends Hunter on a shortcut into mad monday.

              This has to occur before the opening siren so we can later argue that it was not "in play". [/B][/QUOTE]



              I dont agree!!!
              Remember how Lynch looked in the first few moments of The 2004 GF It was an undignified end to a proud career.

              Dont try this Lethal Lee crap. Swans either win it straight or I'd rather let them have it.I dont want Barry and MOL to be remembered as thugs. Anyway , That is not Mr Roos' style . he wont go for it and neither will the team , unless of cousre Chic or Hunter try to rough up Magic and then they will have Captain Kirk to answer to
              Mr Roos knew what he was doing'
              John Longmire is taking it to an art form
              We dont know how lucky we are to be Swans supporters

              Comment

              • hammo
                Veterans List
                • Jul 2003
                • 5554

                #22
                I caught some highlights of the Weagles-Crowbots game last night and noticed in the fourth quarter Andrew McLeod badly dropping off a Weagles player which led to a goal (when Crows were still in front). McLeod had nothing left in the tank.

                Seevral Crows were not fit enough for finals football which is why the Weagles ran over them in the end. That will not happen this week.
                "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

                Comment

                • Bart
                  CHHHOMMMMMPPP!!!!
                  • Feb 2003
                  • 1360

                  #23
                  Originally posted by cowcar
                  plop the Donk
                  I think you'll find the correct terminology is Plonk the Donk

                  Comment

                  • Industrial Fan
                    Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                    • Aug 2006
                    • 3318

                    #24
                    Originally posted by hammo
                    I suspect B2 will get Hanson but would prefer him on Hunter if the grub moves forward.

                    I think we can cover their midlfield but Kerr is a worry. He did well on one leg last year.
                    I would like to see B2 play on a dead wood forward at the start (staker, lecras, etc) as he will keep them well out of the game.

                    B2 on hansen is a danger as hansen will try and run him ragged so he cant keep up with hunter when they make the switch. I think whoever is on b2 will try and run him, and he should be able to keep up with a less mobile forward.

                    I prefer ted on hansen (as hansen is a lead up forward too, ted can leave him to float in defence if required)....

                    b.l.t. on freddie mercury (lynch)

                    dempster on embley (who in my opinion is again the danger man)

                    forget ablett on judd too. Wrong match up for ablett. could be part of a rotation though. Would like to see schneider rotate on judd for portions too - he has the smarts to damage him without spending all his tickets.

                    The match up for me would probably be goodes vs judd in shorter spells, all with agressive running as judd doesnt really have a defensive side.

                    Mr Yawn on fletcher is a good one too, because you know he will stay on him and fletcher wont go out of control. Fletcher is much more important than people give him credit for.

                    Ablett and the colonel are good matchups for kerr.

                    mcveigh should get another crack at cousins, with help from fosdike.

                    Goodes to kick 7.

                    Back to back here we come.
                    He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                    Comment

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