Win Early?

[ScottH]

Link

THE Sydney Swans must kick the habit of starting the season with a stagger rather than a swagger if they are to have a realistic shot at a third successive grand final berth.

That is the prognosis of co-captain Leo Barry who believes the pressure the club has heaped on itself to climb a mid-season mountain over the past two campaigns can't realistically be sustained in 2007.

The Swans were 1-3 after four rounds in 2006 and 2-4 in 2005 and Barry - on the way back to fitness after a shoulder reconstruction - last night warned: "Our slow starts to the season are a concern and it's something we're working hard on to fix.

[goswannie14]

Win early, win often is my philosophy in sport.

[Frog]

Premierships are won in September, not in March or April ... Despite the slow starts we still made the GF in both years.

Also in either/both years, St Kilda, Adelaide, and West Coast (in 05) were looking the goods early - Don't spend all your energy going into the midyear break at 11 - 0 ... Keep some in the tank for September!

[Triple B]

I'm really torn on this issue.

While I want to see us win every game, obviously, there is no doubt we have peaked perfectly for the past 2 finals series.

I hope an emphasis on winning games early doesn't bite us in September.

In horse racing, trainers bring their horses along to be cherry ripe for the first Tuesday in November, the week before Easter, whatever the mission may be. Fortunately, results in leadup races have no bearing on what happens on that day, in fact winning a leadup race may incur a penalty, so is detrimental.

In football we don't have that luxury, a balance must be found and the Swans have found it the past 2 years.

Absolute 'Catch 22' situation.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by Frog
Premierships are won in September, not in March or April ... Despite the slow starts we still made the GF in both years.

Also in either/both years, St Kilda, Adelaide, and West Coast (in 05) were looking the goods early - Don't spend all your energy going into the midyear break at 11 - 0 ... Keep some in the tank for September!

Spot on the money Frog.The Swans dont need nasal delivery spray thats for sure.

[AnnieH]

I'd be happy if they had some more "percentage booster" B.I.G wins. We can take a few losses if the % is healthy, and if % is the difference between second and fifth on the ladder and the end of the season ....

[NMWBloods]

It's not about going from a crap record to an awesome record early on. It's about producing a decent record inbetween that keeps up closer in touch with the top 4 rather than relying on coming home with a wet sail just to make the top 4.

[Cosmic Wizard]

Originally posted by Annie Haddad
I'd be happy if they had some more "percentage booster" B.I.G wins. We can take a few losses if the % is healthy, and if % is the difference between second and fifth on the ladder and the end of the season ....

When do we play Calton or Richmond???

[reigning premier]

I do recall Adelaide being the team to beat and winning eveything that could be won all th eway into September in both 05 & 06.

Does anyone need me to remind them how many GF appearances Adelaide have made in the last two years? Or how many premierships they have won???

Aussie rules is unique in it's "best-of-one" grand final. Most other sports play a "series" or alike to determine the ultimate winner. We don't. So it's probably more important that we peak at the right time. 05 we were perfect, 06 we peaked about a week or two to early.

I hope to see us 2-4 and then finish up 16-6. 64 points puts us right where we want to be.

[AnnieH]

Originally posted by Cosmic Wizard
When do we play Calton or Richmond???

You could probably add Brisvegas to that. Dawks? Dons?? Any more??

You should never go into a game thinking "easy beats", I've seen that turn badly too many times, but you can go in thinking "this could be a big percentage grab if we play it right" type thing.

[NMWBloods]

You can bring up all sorts of examples of teams doing well early and crashing out, but it is also a fact that many premiers are well placed early. In the past 13 years, 8 of them have been in the top 4.

2006 - 5-1, 3rd after 6 rounds

2004 - 5-1, 3rd after 6 rounds

2003 - 5-1-0, 1st after 6 rounds

2002 - 5-1, 3rd after 6 rounds

2000 - 6-0, 1st after 6 rounds

1996 - 5-1, 2nd after 6 rounds

1995 - 6-0, 1st after 6 rounds

1994 - 4-2, 3rd after 6 rounds

In 2005, 1997 and 1998 the premier was 2-4 after 6 rounds.
In 1999 and 2001 the premier was 3-3 after 6 rounds.

Premiers can come from further down when the field seems to be much more open. It's not impossible to win from further down, but it's going to be more difficult when winnable games are thrown away.

[hammo]

Last year we were a little lucky to make the top 4 as the wheels totally fell off Melbourne, and we dropped a game in round 21.

We should be aiming for early season wins to set ourselves up for a top 2 finish, then you "only" have to win your 2 home finals to make the grand final.

Last year's win at Subiaco, 2005 at the G and 2003 at AAMI were all stirring victories away from home but it is doing it the absolute hard way.

In the last two years West Coast have played 6 finals and the only 2 away ones were the grand finals.

With the odds stacked well in favour of home interstate teams in the Prelim Finals thats the week you want to be playing at home.

You can't win a flag in April but you can blow a top 2 chance.

[dimelb]

I'll be happy if we can consistently win the ones we SHOULD win - yes, such as Richmond, Carlton etc. What's more that should see us pretty well placed at the halfway mark.

[Triple B]

Originally posted by hammo

In the last two years West Coast have played 6 finals and the only 2 away ones were the grand finals.

Not exactly correct, but I agree with the sentiments of your post.

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by hammo

In the last two years West Coast have played 6 finals and the only 2 away ones were the grand finals.

I think you'll find it was 7 finals and 3 away, 2006 PF was in Adelaide between WCE and Crows.