Crystal Ball Time

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  • DST
    The voice of reason!
    • Jan 2003
    • 2705

    Crystal Ball Time

    So we are 5 and 4 after nine rounds, top four will probably take 14 and 8 and a good % which we have.

    We therefore need to go 9 and 4 over the last thirteen rounds.

    I have listed these games below into wins (w), losses (l) and crunch games (c) in how this might play out.

    Home - Essendon (w)
    Away - Hawthorn (c)
    Home - Collingwood (c)
    Away - Geelong (l)
    Home - Freemantle (w)
    Home - Carlton (w)
    Away - West Coast (l)
    Home - Richmond (w)
    Away - Melbourne (w)
    Home - St Kilda (w)
    Away - Brisbane (w)
    Away - Collingwood (l)
    Home - Hawthorn (c)

    That puts us at 7 wins, 3 losses and 3 crunch games which will decide our top 4 fate and a realistice shot at another GF and premiership.

    If we split our games coming up against Hawthorn & Collingwood, it's all pointing to a make or break game against Hawthorn in what could be a mini final for a top four spot in the last round at home.

    DST
    "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"

  • liz
    Veteran
    Site Admin
    • Jan 2003
    • 16786

    #2
    I'd have the second Collingwood game down as "crunch" rather than a loss. By that time of year, the Pies may have run out of legs somewhat, whereas if the Swans' pattern repeats, they should be coming into their own.

    Comment

    • DeadlyAkkuret
      Veterans List
      • Oct 2006
      • 4547

      #3
      Surely WC in Perth is a crunch game, instead of a certain loss. We've played very well against them at Subi, in recent times.

      Comment

      • Bloody Hell
        Senior Player
        • Oct 2006
        • 3085

        #4
        Originally posted by liz
        I'd have the second Collingwood game down as "crunch" rather than a loss. By that time of year, the Pies may have run out of legs somewhat, whereas if the Swans' pattern repeats, they should be coming into their own.
        Was thin king the same about the Hawks....young team, etc...the first is a crunch, the second I'd have as a win.
        The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

        Comment

        • CureTheSane
          Carpe Noctem
          • Jan 2003
          • 5032

          #5
          Originally posted by liz
          I'd have the second Collingwood game down as "crunch" rather than a loss. By that time of year, the Pies may have run out of legs somewhat, whereas if the Swans' pattern repeats, they should be coming into their own.
          I'd have them both down as a loss.

          It's about now that they should start to get wobbly.

          I don't ask for much.

          swans win every week.
          collingwood lose every week.

          But most of all, that the Swans don't lose to the Wobbles.
          The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

          Comment

          • hammo
            Veterans List
            • Jul 2003
            • 5554

            #6
            I said after we lost to St Kilda that we still had a realistic aim of getting to 7-4 at the mid season break and that would be a good result. So far that remains possible, even likely. What I like about the Hawks game is that its at the G, where we play well, unlike our recent Dome Disasters.

            The way the 8 is at the moment you'd expect us to chase down all the teams on 24 points (Port, Kangaroos, Magpies and Hawks) before too long. Geelong may keep winning, who knows with them, but I have questions marks on whether Adelaide can keep going and even West Coast have a few problems, although every home game for them is a virtual certainty. All in all, top 4 is still on but we need to get the next two wins under our belts to stay in touch.
            "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

            Comment

            • reigning premier
              Suspended by the MRP
              • Sep 2006
              • 4335

              #7
              Hawthorn doesn't worry me. I don't think their fwd line has been under any pressure yet and that's our strongest area. Think we'll do them.

              Away games agains Geelong, West coast, Collingwood, Brisbane and yes, Melbourne do worry me. Not really happy with the Home game Vs Collingwood either.

              Comment

              • liz
                Veteran
                Site Admin
                • Jan 2003
                • 16786

                #8
                Originally posted by reigning premier
                Hawthorn doesn't worry me. I don't think their fwd line has been under any pressure yet and that's our strongest area. Think we'll do them.

                Away games agains Geelong, West coast, Collingwood, Brisbane and yes, Melbourne do worry me. Not really happy with the Home game Vs Collingwood either.
                It's possible to convince oneself that every game is loseable (which of course it is) but if the Swans are a genuine premiership threat they should be able to compete very very strongly and probably win all of those expect the Geelong and West Coast away games.

                And different to you, I am more concerned by Hawthorn than Collingwood. They don't have a great forward line but have a very even and potent midfield, and are playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.

                Comment

                • reigning premier
                  Suspended by the MRP
                  • Sep 2006
                  • 4335

                  #9
                  Originally posted by liz
                  It's possible to convince oneself that every game is loseable (which of course it is) but if the Swans are a genuine premiership threat they should be able to compete very very strongly and probably win all of those expect the Geelong and West Coast away games.

                  And different to you, I am more concerned by Hawthorn than Collingwood. They don't have a great forward line but have a very even and potent midfield, and are playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.
                  Yep.. No doubt about it. If a game is "loseable", you can bet our boys will give it a good shake...

                  Take it as a given that we won't win at Shell, we just play terrible footy there for some reason. Illegals will be tough as well and an unlikely game. But here's hoping.

                  But Hawthorn or Collingwood, doesn't matter. We have to play both them twice so I'll split you the difference on that one!

                  Though knowing that Collingwood play their best football in June, we'll should get the 2nd AWAY game.. lol...

                  Comment

                  • AnnieH
                    RWOs Black Sheep
                    • Aug 2006
                    • 11332

                    #10
                    Originally posted by reigning premier
                    Hawthorn doesn't worry me. I don't think their fwd line has been under any pressure yet and that's our strongest area. Think we'll do them.

                    Away games agains Geelong, West coast, Collingwood, Brisbane and yes, Melbourne do worry me. Not really happy with the Home game Vs Collingwood either.
                    dawks & crims are the ones i worry about. per the form of the last two weeks (and assuming the speedy return of those injured) ... all the rest are winnable.
                    Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
                    Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.

                    Comment

                    • NMWBloods
                      Taking Refuge!!
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 15819

                      #11
                      We always seem to have trouble with Collingwood.

                      '06 - Lost by 7 pts at TS
                      '05 - Won by 1 pt at TS
                      '04 - Won by 6 pts at TS
                      '03 - Lost by 18 pts at TS
                      '03 - Won by 20 pts at TD

                      Collingwood is probably in the best shape it's been in since '03. However, there is definitely the chance that a young team will begin to fade toward the end of the year, which could offset this, particularly if we are finding form (which we would have to be if we are going to be a genuine chance).
                      Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                      "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                      Comment

                      • hammo
                        Veterans List
                        • Jul 2003
                        • 5554

                        #12
                        Originally posted by reigning premier

                        Away games agains Geelong, West coast, Collingwood, Brisbane and yes, Melbourne do worry me. Not really happy with the Home game Vs Collingwood either.
                        Don't forget Melbourne is in Canberra, which isn't as "away" as a trip to Melbourne.

                        As Liz said, if we're challengers then every game is winnable. The best thing about our run in is only one game in Perth, and no games at AAMI. It's far and away a better draw than we had in 05 and 06.
                        "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

                        Comment

                        • RogueSwan
                          McVeigh for Brownlow
                          • Apr 2003
                          • 4602

                          #13
                          Originally posted by DST
                          Home - Essendon (w)
                          Away - Hawthorn (c)
                          Home - Collingwood (c)
                          Away - Geelong (l)
                          Home - Freemantle (w)
                          Home - Carlton (w)
                          Away - West Coast (l)
                          Home - Richmond (w)
                          Away - Melbourne (w)
                          Home - St Kilda (w)
                          Away - Brisbane (w)
                          Away - Collingwood (l)
                          Home - Hawthorn (c)
                          All looks good theoretically, but I will never play out that way will it? There is always some inexplicable loss and I am looking at either the Dees and/or the Aints. We will then have to rely on other top teams stumbling and let us sneak into the top 4.
                          "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

                          Comment

                          • ernie koala
                            Senior Player
                            • May 2007
                            • 3251

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Bloody Hell
                            Was thin king the same about the Hawks....young team, etc...the first is a crunch, the second I'd have as a win.
                            Yeah....The grandfinal replay...again...has to be the crunch round. If we win that one, the confidence will be sky high, and we all know how important that is.......don't we ?
                            Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect... MT

                            Comment

                            • ROK Lobster
                              RWO Life Member
                              • Aug 2004
                              • 8658

                              #15
                              I reckon that we will win at least 1 of those losses, lose at least 2 of the wins, and that 1 or 2 of the 'crunch' games will blow out - and we will sneak into 4th.

                              Comment

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