Long bow, but.....

[TheHood]

One freezing Saturday night in May 2003, the losing Grand Finalists of the previous year took on a team of strugglers, a basket case (finished 10th the previous year) at their home ground, the Telstra Dome, Melbourne.

The basket case had the first goal kicked on them, but after that, they jumped the Grand Finalist and went on the take a 40 point lead at one stage and won overall by about 3 goals.

The losing team that night picked themselves up, dusted themselves off, took a good hard look at themselves (thanks Coodabeen). They finished the year as favourites for the flag on Grand Final morning.

I don't think Sydney are "done-for" yet. Their slayers last Saturday night are proof of that.

[ROK Lobster]

One freezing Saturday night in May 2003, the losing Grand Finalists of the previous year took on a team of strugglers, a basket case (finished 10th the previous year) at their home ground, the Telstra Dome, Melbourne.

The basket case had the first goal kicked on them, but after that, they jumped the Grand Finalist and went on the take a 40 point lead at one stage and won overall by about 3 goals.

The losing team that night picked themselves up, dusted themselves off, took a good hard look at themselves (thanks Coodabeen). They finished the year as favourites for the flag on Grand Final morning.

I don't think Sydney are "done-for" yet. Their slayers last Saturday night are proof of that.

I think you are right Hood...


...long bow indeed.

[TheMase]

I think you are right Hood...


...long bow indeed.

Quality as always ROK

[TheHood]

I think you are right Hood...


...long bow indeed.

point taken, just trying to cheer up the place a bit.

[NMWBloods]

Interestingly, Collingwood in 2003 continued to struggle a bit from there, and were 6-6, but then went on to win 9 of their last 10.

I actually thought this was going to be about the Swans inability to win the ones they should and will win the ones they shouldn't, which occurred later in 2003 when they lost to Collingwood at TS and then beat Brisbane at the Gabba (hence we lose to Collingwood and beat Geelong at Kardinia Park).

Unfortunately, I still think this side is too much like 2004. They did beat Brisbane in 2004 late, but dropped too many other games. and played a lot of slow, ugly, sideways footy. In 2004 we were 6-6 (after losing by 12 goals to Port) and finished 6th with 15-7.

[reigning premier]

Look, we're not out of this race.....

Everyone says you have to win X games to make the eight, top four, top 2, etc, etc. Bull@@@@.... You only have to win more than 8, 12 or 14 other teams.

Have a look at last weekend. Had we won, 4th. We didn't 10th. Realistically, we can win this weekend, and be 5th. West coast cantinue to slide and end up 8th. Collingwood are playing their best footy in June as per usual, they can get overtaken. Cats are hardly a consistent team over the last 3 years so who knows?

Yeah winning saturday would have made life a hell of a lot easier, but we didn't. So let's just see what eventuates.

It's not just a matter of how many we win, it's what the others win AND lose that matters as well. And a teams like melbourne, richmond and stkilda who have been decimated by injuries are more than just a show of upsetting a few of the top teams.

[Ludwig]

The sheer unpredictability of how a team will perform on any given weekend has been a wonderment this year. For example, all three favourites were soundly beaten this weekend. And one coach's long stint at the helm is looking like a game away from being finished.

There is so much chatter about talent, speed, skills and the like, but it seems to me that the key factor on any given weekend is clearly mental attitude.

I actually don't think it is such a long bow to think that the Swans can come back strongly. Even in the 1Qtr Saturday, the Swans were one mark inside 50 away from a good shot on goal on several occasions. But as we know, those marks were dropped, fumbled, or were just out of reach and run back the other way for a Collingwood score or shot on goal. I am not so sure that the whole game itself, particularly the attitude and confidence of players on both sides, would have changed if Hall could have held on to a mark or two early on. I can just see the high-fiving, spirit raising post goal celebration taking the team to another big victory. Instead, they played the rest of the game with an attitude that even if they got the ball close to the forward 50, it would come to nothing in the end. And so it did.

The point of all this is to bring to mind how difficult it is for us to know what state of mind our team or the opposition will be in on any given day. For their part, the Cats have also been known to shut down mentally on a given day. So who knows what to expect. All the talk and expectation a week ago was how the Swans were switched on and ready to make another assault on the flag. Just didn't happen.

Maybe not such a long bow after all.

[Hazcam]

Look, we're not out of this race.....

Everyone says you have to win X games to make the eight, top four, top 2, etc, etc. Bull@@@@.... You only have to win more than 8, 12 or 14 other teams.

Have a look at last weekend. Had we won, 4th. We didn't 10th. Realistically, we can win this weekend, and be 5th. West coast cantinue to slide and end up 8th. Collingwood are playing their best footy in June as per usual, they can get overtaken. Cats are hardly a consistent team over the last 3 years so who knows?

Yeah winning saturday would have made life a hell of a lot easier, but we didn't. So let's just see what eventuates.

It's not just a matter of how many we win, it's what the others win AND lose that matters as well. And a teams like melbourne, richmond and stkilda who have been decimated by injuries are more than just a show of upsetting a few of the top teams.

Thats a very good point. Le's use the analogy of a marathon here, after all, there are 22 rounds. The best teams play premiership footy in the last 6 games of the year (usually) and it's only round 13. The winner of a marathon is usually one that stays with the pace till the last 10-15% of the race and then storms home either in a close one or by a long way. Sure, at the start you'll get alot of early pace setters (eg, port adelaide) and then around the 20km mark of the marathon things begin to settle.

It's hard to predict how many wins constitutes a top 4 finish let alone top 8. But because the competition is so close, % plays a big role, Sydney is on 110%, mainly because we never win or lose by massive margins, so that should help us out.

I just hope we start winning some of the close games, I dont want it to be like 2002 where poor old Rocket Eade had to deal with 8 losses by less than 13 points (no wonder he's bald).

Interestingly, since they changed the finals format no team has won from 5-8. Surely Sydney could be a chance of bucking that trend? Top 4 seems unlikely unless we win 8 of 10. I'm predicting a 7th or 8th finish but who knows what can happen in the next 10 rounds. West Coast aren't exactly certainties away from home, let alone at home.

This may well be the year a Melbourne side wins a flag, 1st time since Essendon in 2000.

Ha! Fat chance. Bloods in 2007!

[reigning premier]

I think if you look at the ladder at the endo of 2006, Adelaide.WCE sat on top with only 5 losses.

Halfway throughthis year, the top spot is Geelong with 3 losses already. Geelong will lose a couple more at least, but where and when and just how many more is the key.

Given that the comp is so tight, we could realistically see the top spot taken by a team that loses as many as seven!!!

[Hazcam]

Yep, there will be the odd upsets too.
I tell ya, it's a tipsters nightmare this year, in nrl and afl. I think if you literally toss a coin or just pick away teams you'd be going well in the tipping comps.

Last year in the AFL ninemsn one I finished like 85th or something out of 50k! But it was so much easier, you wouldn't have picked st kilda, pies and tigers to win last weekend.

[NMWBloods]

Everyone says you have to win X games to make the eight, top four, top 2, etc, etc. Bull@@@@.... You only have to win more than 8, 12 or 14 other teams.

Yes, which is usually about 12, 14 and 16 games.

Have a look at last weekend. Had we won, 4th. We didn't 10th. Realistically, we can win this weekend, and be 5th. West coast cantinue to slide and end up 8th.

Or realistically WC can win and we can continue to slide.

Collingwood are playing their best footy in June as per usual, they can get overtaken.

What usual best footy in June?

Cats are hardly a consistent team over the last 3 years so who knows?

Yeah winning saturday would have made life a hell of a lot easier, but we didn't. So let's just see what eventuates.

It's not just a matter of how many we win, it's what the others win AND lose that matters as well. And a teams like melbourne, richmond and stkilda who have been decimated by injuries are more than just a show of upsetting a few of the top teams.

Including us!

Having said all that, the evenness of the competition is a big plus for us, which was sort of your point. A little like 1993.

[reigning premier]

Yes, which is usually about 12, 14 and 16 games.

But this year it may be 15 that gets the top spot....

Or realistically WC can win and we can continue to slide.

West coast might just drop a few more yet....

What usual best footy in June?

It's about now they fall over... End of June...

Having said all that, the evenness of the competition is a big plus for us, which was sort of your point.

Hooray!! Understanding.....

[cruiser]

Look, we're not out of this race.....

OK, I'm willing to wait until 5pm this Saturday before deciding whether I should make other plans for the Labour Day long weekend.

[NMWBloods]

It's about now they fall over... End of June...

The only part I really disagree with is this - Collingwood don't really have this history.

I'll just add though, that there is the possibility that Collingwood could slip back a bit later, not because of any history, but because a lot of their team is so young. This gives us an advantage in a long season against the likes of Hawthorn and Collingwood.

I think Adelaide are flying under the radar this year - travelling well with a lot of injuries and players expected to return in the second half of the season.

[Hazcam]

Yep, there will be the odd upsets too.
I tell ya, it's a tipsters nightmare this year, in nrl and afl. I think if you literally toss a coin or just pick away teams you'd be going well in the tipping comps.

Last year in the AFL ninemsn one I finished like 85th or something out of 50k! But it was so much easier, you wouldn't have picked st kilda, pies and tigers to win last weekend.If you did you'd have won $60 bucks for a $1 outlay!!