Long bow, but.....

[Hazcam]

I think if you look at the ladder at the endo of 2006, Adelaide.WCE sat on top with only 5 losses.

Halfway throughthis year, the top spot is Geelong with 3 losses already. Geelong will lose a couple more at least, but where and when and just how many more is the key.

Given that the comp is so tight, we could realistically see the top spot taken by a team that loses as many as seven!!!

Yep, there will be the odd upsets too.
I tell ya, it's a tipsters nightmare this year, in nrl and afl. I think if you literally toss a coin or just pick away teams you'd be going well in the tipping comps.

Last year in the AFL ninemsn one I finished like 85th or something out of 50k! But it was so much easier, you wouldn't have picked st kilda, pies and tigers to win last weekend.If you did you'd have won $60 bucks for a $1 outlay!!

[TheMase]

Of all the teams that could finish 5-8 we'd be one of the most likely to be able to pull it off.

[SimonH]

In 2004 we were 6-6 (after losing by 12 goals to Port) and finished 6th with 15-7.

We finished 6th with 13-9. No-one ever finishes 6th with 15-7.

Everyone says you have to win X games to make the eight, top four, top 2, etc, etc. Bull@@@@.... You only have to win more than 8, 12 or 14 other teams....

It's not just a matter of how many we win, it's what the others win AND lose that matters as well. And a teams like melbourne, richmond and stkilda who have been decimated by injuries are more than just a show of upsetting a few of the top teams.

However, history provides a very good guide to how many you're very likely to have to win to make the top 4. And history tells us pretty clearly that you won't make it to the grannie (probly not even get close), let alone win it, if you don't make the top 4.

Ladder position at this time of year feels nice (or in our case, feels bad) 'n' all, but actually tells you little. It basically just tells you how many are still in the race (at the moment, 13 for the top 8 and up to 12 for the top 4). In these circumstances, a targetted number of wins is the only meaningful goal b/c you cannot target 'if only we can get ahead of these one or two teams'. Every loss for one of those teams is likely to be a win for someone else in the pack.

It's hard to predict how many wins constitutes a top 4 finish let alone top 8. But because the competition is so close, % plays a big role, Sydney is on 110%, mainly because we never win or lose by massive margins, so that should help us out.

Last 10 years the 4th placed team has had (in reverse chronological order): 14 wins and 128% (14 wins and 119% missed out), 14 wins, 15 wins, 14 wins and 115% (14 wins and 103% missed out), 13 wins, 15 wins, 14 wins, 15.5 wins, 14 wins, and 13 wins and 121% (13 wins and 111% missed out).

The important thing in terms of keeping the odds in your favour, is that all of the teams vying for 4th do relatively poorly. This means that you're rooting for a runaway leader (or top 2) to drop very few games (not happening at the moment), and more importantly, for the teams that won't make the 8 to soak up as many wins as possible. 2002 is the perfect example of that: the 4th-bottom team went 9-13 (and the 3 last sides still got 15.5 wins between them), and as a result, 13-9 was enough to grab 4th outright (without even having to go to percentage!).

2007 won't be a 2002, but luckily there are signs that cellar-dwellers Melbourne and Richmond should eke out a few wins from here. Hopefully the young sides in Carlton and Brisbane won't drop their bundles too badly at the tail end of the year (although things aren't looking good in that respect).

Interestingly, since they changed the finals format no team has won from 5-8. Surely Sydney could be a chance of bucking that trend? Top 4 seems unlikely unless we win 8 of 10.

I certainly wouldn't back Sydney (or anyone) to buck the trend if we don't make the 4. In 14 matches of trying under the current finals system (introduced in 2000), the elimination finals winners have made the prelim final a total of once (Hawthorn 2001), and made the GF not once. That's 1-13 in semi-finals, and 0-1 in prelims. Not a happy record.

'8 out of 10' is the killer figure, depending on percentage.Five teams across 7 years since 2000 (2001, 2003, 2004 and 2 teams in 2006) have got 14 wins but missed out, usually because their percentage wasn't up to scratch. We'd need to win 9 to be sure; but if we win 8 from here, there are only a couple of teams who would be likely to have 14 wins and a superior percentage to us. No realistic way we could catch Geelong; it would not be easy to run down West Coast (10% ahead, but they would have to concede 2 wins); but I'd be confident about the rest. Adelaide are only 1% up on one more win, and don't seem to be playing a style that will reproduce last year's thumpings. Hawthorn are 12% ahead of us on 2 more wins, but I reckon their youthful side will get pumped on the odd occasion if they start losing. Everyone else is behind us on %age, with more wins on the board.

In the increasingly unlikely event that we do make 14 wins, Sydney have the amazing record of having made the top 4 by percentage, with 14 wins, twice in the past 4 seasons (2003 and 2006).

Of course, we need to start playing some proper footy first. But who cares about that?

[NMWBloods]

We finished 6th with 13-9. No-one ever finishes 6th with 15-7.

Yes - mea culpa - I transposed Collingwood's finish from earlier in my post.

[top40]

One freezing Saturday night in May 2003, the losing Grand Finalists of the previous year took on a team of strugglers, a basket case (finished 10th the previous year) at their home ground, the Telstra Dome, Melbourne.

I have great memories of that May night in 2003 night. I came down from Sydney to watch the game, with no big expectations. How sweet it was!! I ended up singing Petula Clarke songs in a near by paino bar until about 2.30 next morning.

My view is that the Swans will be switched on against Geelong, and might even win. Geelong can be very vulnerable around this stage of their progress, (Witness their terrible loss against Hawthorn in Round 3 last year at Kardina Park, when they were favourites to win the 2006 flag).

That said, the big fundamental problems now for the Sydney Swans in 2007 are

1. The form of Barry Hall and

2. The fact that Sydney can't string three wins together.

I still believe that the party's over.

[TheHood]

I have great memories of that May night in 2003 night. I came down from Sydney to watch the game, with no big expectations. How sweet it was!! I ended up singing Petula Clarke songs in a near by paino bar until about 2.30 next morning.

My view is that the Swans will be switched on against Geelong, and might even win. Geelong can be very vulnerable around this stage of their progress, (Witness their terrible loss against Hawthorn in Round 3 last year at Kardina Park, when they were favourites to win the 2006 flag).

That said, the big fundamental problems now for the Sydney Swans in 2007 are

1. The form of Barry Hall and

2. The fact that Sydney can't string three wins together.

I still believe that the party's over.

I think that the 2nd half on Saturday was the real Swans and not just a hollow fight back that we're all sick and tired of.

I am sick of all the talk and the Bluds Ethos and quote after boring quote. There is no room for error but that's just the fun of supporting Sydney. Never a dull week.

[Wardy]

its all because the lads are wearing red and white hooped socks - have never liked them. We did afterall win the premiership in the all red socks - bring em back I say!

[TheHood]

its all because the lads are wearing red and white hooped socks - have never liked them. We did afterall win the premiership in the all red socks - bring em back I say!

Are you absolutely sure? I mean I was wearing the hooped socks?

[Wardy]

Are you absolutely sure? I mean I was wearing the hooped socks?

I will have to look at the dvd again - but I'm pretty sure the boys were wearing the all red in 05 GF- and started with the hooped business full time last year. But I will double check. I still dont like the hoops though.