The Lie of the Ladder

[Thunder Shaker]

That said, we would then play 8th place finisher at home.

I hope it's not Adelaide. Please, let it not be Adelaide, anyone except Adelaide.

[AnnieH]

Well Annie, you've certainly proved the first part of your signature correct. Did you read Hammo's definition of 'finals fodder'?

Where's your argument, particularly given you don't know exactly who we will play in the finals??

EDIT: Fifth. I strongly believe we will win our next two games but can't see either the Roos dropping one of their last two nor Port dropping both games.

That said, we would then play 8th place finisher at home. So, no early fade out but we will have to see how the remaining games go....

Yes, I read hammo's description of finals fodder. I do know what finals fodder is - hence, I used the term quite correctly.
My argument is that they're going to have to pull out Jesus Christ, Budda, Krishna, Mohammed & all the others to make the granny this year (geez, I hope they're still on the list). IN MY OPINION - based purely on their current form, I just can't see the swannies going to Melbourne for the last week of September. Call me cynical if you wish, but that's how I see it.
I am, of course, hoping against all hope that they'll prove me wrong.

[top40]

I can't believe to what extent would people go to prove their point. All those games top40 is quoting were lost not won, so why would that fill me with more confidence? As far as I remember we let all those teams to gain quite a lead on us, before we were trying to fight back and failed short in the process. What makes you so confident that it would make any difference in the finals? Let's be frank about it. Our mid-tier players like Schneider, Buchanan, etc. let us down this year big time. Their occasionally good performance can't compensate for that.

I wasn?t contributing to Red and White Online back in September 2005, but I guess there must have been similar pessimistic views expressed about the Swan?s chances at that time.

As we approached the Preliminary Finals of that year, the three other remaining teams were St Kilda, Adelaide and West Coast. Our 2005 record at that stage against those three teams was:

Games: 6 /Win: 1 / Losses: 5

Included in the 5 losses were
? 41 points against the Crows at the SCG in Round 4;
? 45 points against the Eagles in Round 6; and
? 43 points against the Saints in Round 10.

[iigrover]

Im weighing up in my mind whether it would actually be as good to finish 5th as it would 4th, as either:
A) If we finished 4th, we would play Geelong away; or
B) if we finished 5th, we play a low ranked team at home.
Seems to me a loss in A vs a win in B gets us to the same point. Am I missing something?

[AnnieH]

I wasn?t contributing to Red and White Online back in September 2005, but I guess there must have been similar pessimistic views expressed about the Swan?s chances at that time.

aplogetic snip.

Back in August 2005 I wouldn't have even dreamt that the swannies would have made it to the granny, let alone win it.
I believe that the swans were in better form in 2005 than they are now.
We're playing a comp two years down the track where every other coach now intimately knows our game. If we make the granny this year, aside from being extremely pleased, I'd also be extremely surprised.

[hammo]

Im weighing up in my mind whether it would actually be as good to finish 5th as it would 4th, as either:
A) If we finished 4th, we would play Geelong away; or
B) if we finished 5th, we play a low ranked team at home.
Seems to me a loss in A vs a win in B gets us to the same point. Am I missing something?

Advantages of the top 4 over bottom 4 as I see it:

1. 1 win away from a PF as opposed to 2
2. A win in week 1 gets you a week off (given our injuries & niggles this would a god send)
3. A win in week 1 secures a home PF, stacking the odds firlmy in your favour to make GF
4. If you lose in week 1 when you get a second chance
5. Win or lose, you are guaranteed to play your second final at home - for positions 5&6, home ground advantage ends in week 1.
6. You 'only' need to win 3 games in a row to win the flag, as opposed to 4 in the bottom 4.

[iigrover]

Advantages of the top 4 over bottom 4 as I see it:

5. Win or lose, you are guaranteed to play your second final at home - for positions 5&6, home ground advantage ends in week 1.

I guess this is the real advantage. As I'd rather play in week 2 at rthe SCG than Footy Park or Subiaco.

[barry]

No, the real advantage is that in 1 game in week one of the finals can pretty much set you up for a grand final.

The difference between 4th and 5th is huge.

[Jeffers1984]

Top 4 sets up a chance at a home prelim final. Being in the top 4 is absolutely gold if you want to be any chance of winning the whole thing. 5th is an empty feeling.

[iigrover]

The difference between 4th and 5th is huge.

Top 4 sets up a chance at a home prelim final. Being in the top 4 is absolutely gold if you want to be any chance of winning the whole thing. 5th is an empty feeling.

Yeah, I get this - not that stupid.

My original point was in relation to the *actual* teams we would play in week one (Cats-away vs whoever finishes 8th-at home) - not some theoretical or statistical outcome.

IMO, on current form, both games would have us play in week 2 of the finals.

So, Jeffers, perhaps you are going to have that empty feeling either way...

Therefore as I said in my last post, perhaps the only real advantage is that we get a home game in week 2.

[The Big Cat]

Geelong are vulnerable more to us than any other side. We nearly got them at SS without BBBB and Tadhg. While we probably won't have Tadhg next time, we won't be playing them at the skinny-gutted cattery on a wet windy home ground advantage type day either. And I still think there is a bit of knee shaking if they have to play us in a final after the Nicky D heist of 2005.

[The Big Cat]

Geelong are vulnerable more to us than any other side. We nearly got them at SS without BBBB and Tadhg. While we probably won't have Tadhg next time, we won't be playing them at the skinny-gutted cattery on a wet windy home ground advantage type day either. And I still think there is a bit of knee shaking if they have to play us in a final after the Nicky D heist of 2005.

[NMWBloods]

I don't think "we nearly got them" - they were comfortably in front for most of the game. Like the game last Sunday, a late comeback by the 'Roos against Geelong didn't mean it was close.

[mcs]

I for one certainly think Geelong are vulnerable to say the least- they have been the outstanding team all year but the last month they havent looked half as impressive for the 8-12 weeks before that. Get them away from SS and I think its a different proporsition come finals time. If they turn up and play to their potential I think they will win the whole thing hands down, but I still have questions come finals time.... Im not sure they can step it up the extra notches needed. Saying that, the way that there main competition is falling apart they might not need to. The Egos are struggling with injuries and will hurt plenty with the loss of Kerr, the Rooboys are pretenders imo, Hawthorn are great on their day but Im not sure they are ready yet and Port- well who knows? Then there is us and the rest in the bottom half of the eight who just have to get to the finals before thinking about anything else.

The competition is open though imo. If Geelong can kick it up a couple of gears come finals time I think they will win it, but I have serious doubts and if someone (eg WCE or us.) run into them and can play hardened finals footy and cut off their ability to run like they have all year, then they might not be half as formidable as they have been. The rate we are going it wont be us though, I think WCE are the only ones who potentially stand between the Cats and an elusive flag!

I never say never for our swans.... itll only take one upset and we could still make the 4- cant see it happening but if it did Id give us more then a shot if we brought our A game along come finals time!