The Lie of the Ladder

[top40]

Finals fodder refers to teams that are just making up the numbers and are not in the same class as the top 2 or 3 in the competition.

I don't think the current Swans team fits into that category at all for the following reasons:

- We've been there before in 2005 & 2006
- Our style is suited to finals
- We never get blown away - even when we're down we somehow find ourselves in positions to win games (see Geelong 2007, WC at Subiaco 07)
- This is as even a competition as there's been (Geelong's lack of finals' success means there will be doubts about them right up until grand final day).
- If we happen to finish 5th or 6th, our away final in week 2 *could* be at the MCG (far too early to do the match-ups but if we played the Kangaroos down there I can't see us starting as anything other than favourites. Also, Swans lift for MCG games especially finals).

So even though I don't think we're playing near what we're capable of, we're far from easybeats in the finals. The current betting market which has us equal 3rd favourites with Port would indicate that.

Here here. Why can't we win the flag from 5th or 6th? Adelaide did in 1998. Yes, I know it was a different finals system back then. Yet we win week one being an elimination final at home, and we are from then on in almost the exact position we were in from week 2 onwards in 2005. Champions never give up, and look at a glass half full, not half empty. The team spirit has greatly changed since those Rodney Ede years of finals capitulation in '97, '99and '01, when we went out in week 1.

And we are certainly capable of beating Geelong at the G or West Coast at Subi.

[NMWBloods]

Yet we win week one being an elimination final at home, and we are from then on in almost the exact position we were in from week 2 onwards in 2005.

No we're not. In week 2 we would be playing away, which could be a pretty significant difference.

And we are certainly capable of beating Geelong at the G or West Coast at Subi.

We are, however that's not based on our form this year.

[Mr_Juicy]

We'll finish fourth.......

if it was Layby saying that, I'd feel more comfortable

[top40]

No we're not. In week 2 we would be playing away, which could be a pretty significant difference.

As I wrote, finishing 5th or 6th would make us "almost in the exact same position".

The advantages "blessed" upon us in our 3rd placed 2005 finish were exactly luxurious.

First, there was the trip all the way to Perth in week one. At that point in time West Coast had not hosted a final in a decade. Believe you me I was there that night, and those 42,000 Eagles fans were all on heat! The so called 'roar' factor almost certainly cost us the game, as witnessed by the infamous Leo Barry free kick incident, and the Eagles getting away with an crystal clear Adam Goodes trip right near their goals in the dying minutes of the game.

Second, after the long trip home from Western Australia, we move to a Friday night game at the SCG, and not Telstra Stadium because of fixed NRL commitments. Our opponents, Geelong, had never played at Telstra Stadium at that stage, but by contrast as a club had played every single year at the SCG since season 1981. It was on this occasion against the Cats that the AFL unilaterally decided to water the ground late on the Friday afternoon. (May I be cynical here and suggest that the watering of the ground was to get Geelong familiar with "Kardinia Park-like" conditions!)

In 2007 the scene could be like this:

Week one against a team without any or very much Telstra Stadium experience.

Week two, a 90 minute plane trip to the MCG, whereupon we play on a ground where we will have about 35% support; and where we have won 7 of the past 9 games, with the two losses coming at a deficit of just one point each.

I think I would choose 2007 over 2005 anytime!

We are, however that's not based on our form this year.

I disagree.

We played the Eagles in Round 16 this year when Cousins came back BIG TIME. We were without Hall and Kennelly. And we only lost by just two goals

We would be playing Geelong at the G, (and not Skilled Stadium), where as I point out above, we have a great recent record.

At Skilled Stadium this year, minus Hall and Kennelly, we lost by three goals. That's the closest victory Geelong have had this year at Skilled Stadium. In our Grand Final year of 2006, we lost to the Cats by over 5 goals at Skilled Stadium. Further, our recent finals experience is superior to that of the Cats, having played in two GFs and three PFs in recent years.

No, we're definitely capable of beating either the Eagles or the Cats away from home in finals football in 2007.

[Zlatorog]

I can't believe to what extent would people go to prove their point. All those games top40 is quoting were lost not won, so why would that fill me with more confidence? As far as I remember we let all those teams to gain quite a lead on us, before we were trying to fight back and failed short in the process. What makes you so confident that it would make any difference in the finals? Let's be frank about it. Our mid-tier players like Schneider, Buchanan, etc. let us down this year big time. Their occasionally good performance can't compensate for that.

[NMWBloods]

In 2007 the scene could be like this:

Week one against a team without any or very much Telstra Stadium experience.

Week two, a 90 minute plane trip to the MCG, whereupon we play on a ground where we will have about 35% support; and where we have won 7 of the past 9 games, with the two losses coming at a deficit of just one point each.

I think I would choose 2007 over 2005 anytime!

What if week 2 is in Perth or Adelaide?

What if week 3 is in Perth or Adelaide instead?

No, we're definitely capable of beating either the Eagles or the Cats away from home in finals football in 2007.

Our form this year suggests not. Those results have an element of fool's gold to them.

[AnnieH]

I can't believe to what extent would people go to prove their point. All those games top40 is quoting were lost not won, so why would that fill me with more confidence? As far as I remember we let all those team to gain quite a lead on us before we were trying to fight back in the process and failed short. What makes you so confident that it would make any difference in the finals? Let's be frank about it. Our mid-tier players like Schneider, Buchanan, etc. let us down this year big time. Their occasionally good performance can't compensate for that.

... NO ... Let me be frank!!!

Seriously, IMO we will finish as finals fodder. We just don't have the class (or the "want" or drive) we've had over the last two years. I certainly hope that the swannies will make me eat these words, but from where I'm sitting, we're gunna be ko'd early.

[barry]

What if week 2 is in Perth or Adelaide?

What if week 3 is in Perth or Adelaide instead?

Our form this year suggests not. Those results have an element of fool's gold to them.

Perth is the only one we have to avoid IMO. WC have the wood on us lately, and I think it would be too much to ask to back up another road trip to Melbourne after a Perth trip.

But going to Adelaide to play Port is just the same as going to Melbourne to play whoever. Its only a 1.5 hour flight.

[Sanecow]

But going to Adelaide to play Port is just the same as going to Melbourne to play whoever. Its only a 1.5 hour flight.

Going to Adelaide to play football in front of a Port Adelaide crowd would have to be one of the most depressing and soul destroying trips in football.

[barry]

Going to Adelaide to play football in front of a Port Adelaide crowd would have to be one of the most depressing and soul destroying trips in football.

Port the team dont worry me at all.

Port supporters on the other hand...

[hammo]

Port the team dont worry me at all.

Port supporters on the other hand...

It's OK. Port supporters don't turn up to finals because they can't afford the ticket prices.

[reigning premier]

Going to Adelaide to play football in front of a Port Adelaide crowd would have to be one of the most depressing and soul destroying trips in football.

Unless of course you win.

[Sanecow]

Unless of course you win.

It's leaving that's the real reward.

[connolly]

Going to Adelaide would have to be one of the most depressing and soul destroying trips.

Edited for accuracy

[Danzar]

... NO ... Let me be frank!!!

Seriously, IMO we will finish as finals fodder. We just don't have the class (or the "want" or drive) we've had over the last two years. I certainly hope that the swannies will make me eat these words, but from where I'm sitting, we're gunna be ko'd early.

Well Annie, you've certainly proved the first part of your signature correct. Did you read Hammo's definition of 'finals fodder'?

Where's your argument, particularly given you don't know exactly who we will play in the finals??

EDIT: Fifth. I strongly believe we will win our next two games but can't see either the Roos dropping one of their last two nor Port dropping both games.

That said, we would then play 8th place finisher at home. So, no early fade out but we will have to see how the remaining games go....