The Lie of the Ladder

[robbieando]

I think they changed the rule this year so that you actually have to be crap for more than one year to get the priority pick - hence Melbourne have no incentive to tank coz even if they stay on 16 points, they won't get the pick as they made the finals last year. Carlton, however, are eligible, since they got the spoon last year.

Changed it last year in fact and clubs who finished with 16 points or less were eligible for a extra pick before the First Round this year. At this stage only Carlton still are. As for Melbourne while not eligable for a extra First Round Pick, they are at this stage still eligible for an extra Second Round Pick at the start of the Second Round along with Carlton and Richmond.

[swantastic]

It seems as if the Hawks supporters are already giving in to a defeat in R22 and some of them a smashing.
Take a look

[top40]

A top 4 chance now strongly depends on other results. Assuming that Sydney wins their last two games, there are a couple of Round 22 games where fingers will have to be crossed.

Either:

A] The Bulldogs beat the Kangaroos, (assuming that the Kangaroos as predicted account for Carlton in Round 21); or,

B] Freo beats Port in Adelaide, (assuming Port Adelaide loses to the Cats at Skilled Stadium as is widely predicted).

Even if both the Bulldogs and Freo win next week, it is very unlikely that either team will have even a mathematical hope by the start of round 22 of making the Final 8. That can be a good thing, as the team just out of the race tends to relax a bit, and often plays stress free, good football

Any rate, the whole finals results depends so much on a multiple of permutations. Witness last year. But for the AFL Commission's decision to award Freo the four points in relation to the siren-gate draw against St Kilda at Launceston early in the 2006 season, and Sydney would not have made the top 4.

The good news is that it now seems very unlikely that Sydney will miss out in playing finals football. These factors would have to occur for the Swans to miss out:

1. Sydney lose both games

AND

2. St Kilda would have to win both its games, (including a win against West Coast)

AND

3. The winner of next week's Adelaide-Brisbane game would have to also win the following week. In the case of the Crows, that would have to be against Collingwood in Melbourne. In the case of the Lions, that would have to be against Geelong at home.

[Matt79]

I reckon the big "IF" is us winning the remaining 2 games.

If we do then I think we will still finish 4th. The last round will be emotional for the Bulldogs with Darcy and very possibly Grant retiring. I think they'll take the Kangas.

[SimonH]

I suppose the good news is that, if we win the last 2, the dream ain't yet completely dead. It's just rather sicker.

If Sydney can win their last 2 then our chances of finishing top 4 would still be just shy of even money, by my reckoning.

Leaving aside a scenario that I consider close to fanciful (i.e. less than 5% chance), which is the Weagles taking no more than 2 points from St Kilda (A) and Essendon (H), we just need one of the following to occur (and I've given a guess of likelihood):
Port Adelaide lose to Geelong (A) and then lose to Freo at home (or draw one of those games): 20%
Kangaroos lose to or draw with either one of Carlton or the Dogs: 30%.

As the uber stats-nerds would already know, the chances of one out of an 80%-likely event, and a 70% likely event, not happening, are 44%. So there you are.

It was absolutely right to root for the draw in Paaahhhr v Hawks, but barring that result I don't see how Port winning was bad for us. On the contrary, if the Hawks had won, then we would've been relying on favourable results in other teams' games to get ahead of both the Pahhhr and the Hawks on the ladder... adding a further level of contingency we sure don't need. As it is, we can now guarantee that we can get ahead of the Hawks under our own steam.

[Xie Shan]

I reckon the big "IF" is us winning the remaining 2 games.

If we do then I think we will still finish 4th. The last round will be emotional for the Bulldogs with Darcy and very possibly Grant retiring. I think they'll take the Kangas.

You're right on both counts, that's the one factor I hadn't considered. Isn't the end of the season fun?

I still like our chances against both the Pies and the Hawks, providing we pay more attention to Buckley than we did Cousins

[top40]

You're right on both counts, that's the one factor I hadn't considered. Isn't the end of the season fun?

I still like our chances against both the Pies and the Hawks, providing we pay more attention to Buckley than we did Cousins

I've been thinking a lot lately about a Buckley return against us. Since he played for Williamstown last Saturday (19th August), it is now practically a certainty that he will take the field for the first time this season against us at the MCG in Round 21.

Swan supporters will obviously draw pessimistic comparisons with the Ben Cousins Round 16 return against us. There is however four fundamental differences between Cousins' comeback against us and Buckley's anticipated comeback.

First, Buckley is aged 35, Cousin only 29. That six years makes a very big difference

Second, Cousins was only out for four months. His last game was a practice match in mid March against the Western Bulldogs, where he was best on ground. Until last weekend, (19th August), Buckley hadn't played any game of AFL football for over eleven months now.

Third, Cousins never was out for any reasons related to physical injuries. All the time he was out, he would been physically fit, having fully utilised his body physically. Witness the incredible state of his body when he returned. He was probably actually physically fitter than any of the other 43 players that played that night. For Buckley, it has been a slow physical return to fitness. He probably only been fully fit for few weeks. If he plays in the midfield, he simply would not have the capacity to take a very large number of possessions even going close to the 39 Cousins took against us.

Fourth, there are the comparable atmospheres. At Subi the night Cousins came back the ground was full house, with about 97% West Coast Eagles supporters. If Buckley comes back against us, the MCG will be about 2/3rds capacity, with only about 65% of the crowd supporting the Pies.

[top40]

The good news is that it now seems very unlikely that Sydney will miss out in playing finals football. These factors would have to occur for the Swans to miss out:

1. Sydney lose both games

AND

2. St Kilda would have to win both its games, (including a win against West Coast)

AND

3. The winner of next week's Adelaide-Brisbane game would have to also win the following week. In the case of the Crows, that would have to be against Collingwood in Melbourne. In the case of the Lions, that would have to be against Geelong at home.

There is of course a delicious irony in all this. Come next Friday night (24th August) and the Swans could well be celebrating their 10th finals appearance in 12 seasons. And the reason: a West Coast Eagles win (over St Kilda). How many times in the three years have we celebrated a West Coast Eagles win?!

[Sanecow]

I reckon the big "IF" is us winning the remaining 2 games.

That's my feeling too. Two more draws possibly.

[AnnieH]

Hate to say it again this late in the season, BUT we're gunna be finals fodder.

[573v30]

Hate to say it again this late in the season, BUT we're gunna be finals fodder.

I agree, it's 2004 all over again.

[hammo]

Hate to say it again this late in the season, BUT we're gunna be finals fodder.

Finals fodder refers to teams that are just making up the numbers and are not in the same class as the top 2 or 3 in the competition.

I don't think the current Swans team fits into that category at all for the following reasons:

- We've been there before in 2005 & 2006
- Our style is suited to finals
- We never get blown away - even when we're down we somehow find ourselves in positions to win games (see Geelong 2007, WC at Subiaco 07)
- This is as even a competition as there's been (Geelong's lack of finals' success means there will be doubts about them right up until grand final day).
- If we happen to finish 5th or 6th, our away final in week 2 *could* be at the MCG (far too early to do the match-ups but if we played the Kangaroos down there I can't see us starting as anything other than favourites. Also, Swans lift for MCG games especially finals).

So even though I don't think we're playing near what we're capable of, we're far from easybeats in the finals. The current betting market which has us equal 3rd favourites with Port would indicate that.

[Mr_Juicy]

How close was that shot of Eberts to hitting the post. He hits the post, a draw, and the whole scenario changes. A season of inches.

DAMN TO HELL THAT SCG PADDING!!!!! ANOTHER REASON TO SHIFT TO TELSTRA STADIUM

[NMWBloods]

I agree, it's 2004 all over again.

I don't think we will be finals 'fodder' but it's looked like 2004 for most of the season for me, and nothing has changed my mind yet.

[reigning premier]

We'll finish fourth.......