Swans finish ????? in 2008

[ScottH]

Why are some people so optimistic that the team can turn around from last year?

It's called hope.

[ScottH]

Hope and expectation are different.

Yes, but most supporters look forward to a new season, with much hope, and some expectation of success. Otherwise you wouldn't bother supporting a team.
Even during the early 90's, fans would've approached the season with anticipation of some form of success. (Even though it was shattered during the season).

There is nothing wrong with looking forward to, hoping for some success.

[Go Swannies]

Why are some people so optimistic that the team can turn around from last year?

Last year the Swans were starting after two hard Grand Final appearances; our power forward was shattered by a woeful GF then injuries; our Brownlow medalist was playing like a buffoon; we had few new players to look forward to; Tadhg was out most of the season - and we were still only a couple of close games out of the Top Four.

Conversely, unless you write for the Herald Sun (or post on Big Footy) why wouldn't you be optimistic about this season?

If we go back to the old desperation to win the close ones - instead of just reeling in an embarrassing deficit in the final quarter - I expect us to be Top Four.

[Chilcott]

There are other aspects to consider, such as:

- We are one of the slowest teams in the comp. We added Mattner to counter that, but have lost Malceski.

- Players like J Bolton, Mathews are getting slower and are unlikely to get a lot better.

- Have key players like Kirk, Hall and Barry peaked in their performance. Hall was suffering with injury last year, but he also struggled with the new rule interpretation - is that going to change this year?

- We may have been only a couple of games outside the top 4, but we generally beat the weak teams and lost to the good ones. That's often the mark of a top team on the gradual slide. Our weak performances against Collingwood late in the season showed how far off we were.
- We hope the new players do well (and should have been introduced much earlier) but it's a lot to ask of them.

Hit the nail on the head Doctor.

[swantastic]

injuries as usual to determine final position and finals momentum.

Spot on,if Hall,Goodes,Tiger,ROK,Kirky and LRT all have good years we are a shoe in for the top 4.

[ScottH]

But that was my point - we all hope the team does well.

Where we think or predict they may finish is a different thing.

I'm always happy if we finish above at least one other team.
Above more than 8 is a huge plus.
Above more than 12 is fantastic.
Any thing else is a bonus.

[Go Swannies]

There are other aspects to consider, such as:

- We are one of the slowest teams in the comp. We added Mattner to counter that, but have lost Malceski.

- Players like J Bolton, Mathews are getting slower and are unlikely to get a lot better.

- Have key players like Kirk, Hall and Barry peaked in their performance. Hall was suffering with injury last year, but he also struggled with the new rule interpretation - is that going to change this year?

- We may have been only a couple of games outside the top 4, but we generally beat the weak teams and lost to the good ones. That's often the mark of a top team on the gradual slide. Our weak performances against Collingwood late in the season showed how far off we were.

- We hope the new players do well (and should have been introduced much earlier) but it's a lot to ask of them.

So it's a lot to ask of our new players to play well and it's a lot to expect our senior players to play as well as they have. Then you're right, there's not much hope. Can I change my vote.

Of course, there's another outside chance. Maybe others are right and we do have perhaps the best coach in the competition and he hasn't put his house on us losing this year so maybe, just maybe, he has a plan that we don't know of that he's hoping will give us a shot this year?

If not, at least we'll have a new Sydney team to support soon.

[liz]

There are other aspects to consider, such as:

- We are one of the slowest teams in the comp. We added Mattner to counter that, but have lost Malceski.

- Players like J Bolton, Mathews are getting slower and are unlikely to get a lot better.

- Have key players like Kirk, Hall and Barry peaked in their performance. Hall was suffering with injury last year, but he also struggled with the new rule interpretation - is that going to change this year?

- We may have been only a couple of games outside the top 4, but we generally beat the weak teams and lost to the good ones. That's often the mark of a top team on the gradual slide. Our weak performances against Collingwood late in the season showed how far off we were.

- We hope the new players do well (and should have been introduced much earlier) but it's a lot to ask of them.

We're certainly not one of the quickest by foot, though I think that is a bit overrated. Adelaide have never been that quick either but when they are on-song (like for much of 2005 and 2006) they moved the ball more quickly than most teams I've seen play.

I don't think Malceski is that quick by foot either, but his ability to spot a target 50m away and hit them on the chest with a pass that sizzles through the air means he helps the team play a little quicker.

Having Kennelly for most games will help add some footspeed, while Jack, Laidlaw (if he keeps himself fit) and possibly even Vezspremi later in the year, are players who might be able to introduce some line-breaking ability into the team.

Agree on Mathews but the early signs with Bolton are good enough. He has been quite significantly better in the practice games than last year. I don't expect him to improve on his 2005/6 (where he was a more than handy player, especially in the first half of 2005) but any improvement on 2007 has got to be a positive. He's never been quick so age shouldn't affect his speed unduly.

Even in our GF years, our record against the better teams was pretty mediocre until it came to September. Certainly three comprehensive defeats at the hands of Collingwood should be a bit of a reality check, but even in 2005 and 2006 they were a team we struggled against. I have a theory (mostly speculation but supported by some comments made in the media) that Malthouse was one of the earliest opposition coaches to understand and admire what the Swans were doing to win games, and has therefore been most successful in finding a way to thwart it. The Pies aren't the quickest team going around, yet made our boys look treacle slow by comparison. On the other hand, teams that should trouble the Swans speed-wise, like the Dogs, Power and even the Hawks, haven't so much. It's extreme pressure on the ball-carrier that makes teams look slow much more so than opposition footspeed I reckon.

I agree that we can't expect the younger inclusions to work miracles, but the fact that most of the likely ones are into their 3rd (Barlow, Jack, maybe Laidlaw) or 4th (Moore) year on the list means they shouldn't have the strength / endurance limitations that come with many first or second year players. Even Bird is really a second year player, rather than a complete newbie, given he trained and played with the squad for large parts of last season.

The thing that has most impressed me about Allison's coaching of the reserves is that he has them running themselves into the ground each and every week. It would be pretty easy for them to take their foot off the pedal when they're already up by over 100 points at 3/4 time but if anything, they seem to work harder to grind their opponents into the ground in the final term, which is why they so often win by 180 or so points. Much of the damage is done late in the game when they've exhausted their opponents but are still willing to work hard themselves to capitalise. Sure, it will be far far more taxing for them when they are also been buffetted around by AFL-sized bodies but we do have players who, physically at least, should be ready to stand up and make decent contributions.

I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic about this upcoming season. I really have no clue what to expect. I do think a fair amount has to go right if the team's going to seriously challenge- including productive returns from Hall, Kennelly or LRT. And we remain a Craig Bolton injury away from potential carnage in the backline.

I don''t think the team is that differently placed than at the start of either the 2005 or 2006 seasons - except maybe for question marks over whether Hall's body will stand up for the whole season.

[Robbo]

I think lack of speed is exposed in sides mainly in the finals, when the instensity and pace of the game goes up a level.

Maybe that's why Adelaide always seem to fall short.

We won the premiership when we had Williams. Crouch and Fosdike actually had a yard of pace back then aswell.

[dimelb]

- We may have been only a couple of games outside the top 4, but we generally beat the weak teams and lost to the good ones. That's often the mark of a top team on the gradual slide. Our weak performances against Collingwood late in the season showed how far off we were.

By my reckoning Collingwood were the next best team after Geelong last year; the real grand final was played early. No disgrace to be beaten by them, although they made us look insipid at times, and played our game better than we did. A genuine inflow of new blood will help us.

[Wardy]

Geez here's a thought - lets just wait and see what transpires in say the next 13 weeks, by then we we will have a better idea of how the team is travelling.

[Go Swannies]

Geez here's a though - lets just wait and see what transpires in say the next 13 weeks, by then we we will have a better idea of how the team is travelling.

Spoilsport. Why not do our thinking now and cruise through the season. Saves time.

Anyway, too late. I've already got the bubbles on ice (though Grange in the MCG car park works fine too, Wardy). Meanwhile, the good Dr D is sharpening the razor blade, filling the bath and lining up Leonard Cohen on the IPod.

[Wardy]

Spoilsport. Why not do our thinking now and cruise through the season. Saves time.

Anyway, too late. I've already got the bubbles on ice (though Grange in the MCG car park works fine too, Wardy). Meanwhile, the good Dr D is sharpening the razor blade, filling the bath and lining up Leonard Cohen on the IPod.

Killjoy thats me - but the bubbly does sound ever so good - ok here's the go - if we are in the top 4 by the half way mark this season - I will go and purchase a bottle of Grange in readiness for the '08 MCG carpark knees up on Grandfinal day (when we play Geelong!)

[Old Royboy]

Whilst Liz is essentially correct, the "unknowns" in assessing this year for me are:

1. How much contribution will we get from players like Barlow, Moore, Bird and Jack?

2. Can our older players stay fit and healthy, given that many have crossed the line whereby they have started to become more injury prone as they get older.

To improve, we obviously need maximum input from the kids, combined with imroved/more consistant output from the oldies. Big call.

Last year our best was just as good as the previous two. Where the team fell down was that the old bodies were incapable of producing their best each week. In contrast to 05 and 06, last year a good team performance one week was followed by a shocker the next. Impossible to win three consecutive finals games if that is the case!

[Go Swannies]

And if the Lions at the SCG on August 30 is the Swans' last game of the year, I'll meet up with Dr D at the aftermatch and the beer is on me.

This time last year I still could not see a way the Swans could win unless Baz played and played well. By the end of the year, I think our structure was better without him. Things change.

If you'd told anyone a few years ago that one of the bright points of the upcoming season was LRT's pre season form, you'd have been laughed off the site. Things indeed do change.

LRT, Tadhg, an in-form Goodes and hopefully a Baz who has stilled his demons could be part of a team that will still be hard to beat. Last year, the Swans didn't seem to be enjoying their footy much - nor did we.

There are no expectations this year so I hope to watch some fun footy - and celebrate some unexpected wins - over the next six months.