2 or 3 winnable crunch games will decide if we finish 4th.

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Triple B
    Formerly 'BBB'
    • Feb 2003
    • 6999

    2 or 3 winnable crunch games will decide if we finish 4th.

    No doubt we have a tough run, but we are 6 points clear and realistically those sides 6 points behind us are the only 3 sides who can tip us out of 4th.

    Let's have a look at their run home:

    Pies:
    Adelaide (h)
    North
    Essendon
    Hawthorn
    StKilda
    Port (a)
    Sydney (h)
    Freo (a)

    Crows:
    Collingwood (a)
    Port
    Sydney (a)
    Carlton (h)
    Richmond (h)
    Essendon (a)
    StKilda (a)
    Bulldogs (h)

    Lions:
    Essendon (a)
    West Coast (h)
    Richmond (a)
    North (GC)
    Hawthorn (a)
    Bulldogs (h)
    Carlton (h)
    Sydney (a)

    If we win only 4 of our remaining 8 games, those sides behind us must still win 6 of the last 8 to get past us.

    It's not hard to see a few losses for the other teams in their run home, but I guess they are all winnable.

    Therefore, beating Carlton and Freo is a must and we'll be short odds to complete that double.

    It's an old cliche, but the Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane games are absolutely 8 point games. Win 2 of those and i reckon 4th spot is sewn up, almost regardless of us sneaking a win over Hawks, Cats, or Bullies..
    Driver of the Dan Hannebery bandwagon....all aboard. 4th April 09
  • mcs
    Travelling Swannie!!
    • Jul 2007
    • 8149

    #2
    if we are good enough we will make the eight If we are not, then we wont. IMO Collingwood and Brisbane are the only two in with a shot of getting in front of us. Adelaide do have a resaonable draw but I reckon they really have gone backwards the last few weeks and might be about to struggle for the rest of the season like we might (Or might not)
    The eight pointers are the critical games. I expect us to beat Brisbane in Sydney and I would hope we can finally break the stupid Adelaide hodoo, but Collingwood is almost a write off imo.

    Looking at the draws, we have the hardest draw on paper, but I dont think any team has it that easy. The Pies for Instance have 4 big matches against Melbourne based clubs straight (North,Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda) and while you would expect them to win at least 3, they could also concievably only win one or 2.

    But in the end, who knows? Take it one week at a time and see what happens. IMO the Pies was more of a speed bump (Perhaps now a major accident with the Barry Hall incident), but if we can manage to bounce back well against the Hawks (Even if we lose) then I still think we are in prime position to finish 4th.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

    Comment

    • DST
      The voice of reason!
      • Jan 2003
      • 2705

      #3
      Beat Adelaide and Brisbane at home (along with wins against Freo and Carlton) we will finish fourth.

      It is a very simple equation.

      Wherther we will be in any shape to go further come finals than a preliminary final is another question and ar to early to call.

      DST
      "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"

      Comment

      • Thunder Shaker
        Aut vincere aut mori
        • Apr 2004
        • 4150

        #4
        Originally posted by Triple B
        It's an old cliche, but the Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane games are absolutely 8 point games. Win 2 of those and i reckon 4th spot is sewn up
        Win all 3 and it's a laydown mis?re.
        "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

        Comment

        • barry
          Veterans List
          • Jan 2003
          • 8499

          #5
          Running into the finals by beating Collingwood (MCG, Rnd 21) and Brisbane (SCG, Rnd 22) would be nice form.

          Comment

          • NTH DENI SWAN
            On the Rookie List
            • Apr 2006
            • 13

            #6
            got nothing to worry about what is our run against the hawks and the blues good time to get them

            Comment

            • reigning premier
              Suspended by the MRP
              • Sep 2006
              • 4335

              #7
              Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
              Win all 3 and it's a laydown mis?re.
              Not open misere?

              Comment

              • TheMase
                Senior Player
                • Jan 2003
                • 1207

                #8
                Been saying the same thing. We are still in a very good position.

                Comment

                Working...