Three more wins for 4th

[chalbilto]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

After watching the effort last Saturday I had the same thoughts.

[SimonH]

The way other teams are falling around like nine-pins (and we are as well), two scenarios are distinct possibilities:
a) the Swans become the worst-performed team in the history of the final 8, to grab 4th spot
b) an unbelievably unlikely, didn't-even-think-they-would-make-the-8 team like the Roos could snatch 4th spot.

If the 2nd of these possibilities occurs, I'm putting the house on Geelong 91+ at the TAB for the first week of the finals. Probably pay about $1.10.

A less likely, but more exciting, possibility is that if we beat the Dogs this weekend, we then have 2 matches to make up on them to grab 3rd. (If we draw with them on comp points, then beating their %age will safely look after itself.) Their last 4 are North Melbourne, Blions at the Gabba, Dons and Adelaide in Adelaide.

As others have commented, we can win 3 of our last 4. And on what will be their current form if we beat them, the Dogs could easily lose 3 of their last 4.

The prize? A first-week encounter vs Hawthorn as against Geelong. Regardless of our recent loss to them, I would be licking my lips.

[SimonH]

Here is an article on this weekend's amazing series of poor results for top 8 sides and top 4 wannabes.

Although, for an article about poor performance, it's not a very good article. Two clangers stick out.

The race for fourth spot is starting to echo Steven Bradbury's famous Winter Olympics gold medal, a last-man-standing affair. With one important difference. Bradbury had no one left in front him at the finish line. Whoever grabs the prized spot in this contest will still have three other runners miles in the distance, all of whom, in contrast, know how to take their chances.
...
Is anyone in the long queue forming for fourth good enough to take it up to the top three anyway? "Probably not at the moment," [Jonathan] Brown shrugged. Probably not in five weeks, either.

Leaving aside the Hawks' wobbly form, a Bulldogs side that has lost 2 in a row including falling to Carlton by 5 goals after being 6 goals up, 'knows how to take its chances' and no side competing for 4th is good enough to take it up to them? Ahem. It's rather like the article was filed at half-time of the twilight game.

What the Roos don't have, significantly, is percentage, the only team in the top eight below 100, and a whopping 22 percentage points behind Sydney. That's as good as a couple more games.

I have no idea what the last sentence is meant to mean. Percentage can never be worth more than one game (or, technically, half-a-game). And as Connolly tacitly acknowledges later in the para by referring to a "half-game break", the Roos' percentage is irrelevant in comparison with anyone except Sydney and Richmond (the latter of whom they have a better percentage than). Unless one of the other contenders has a draw between here and the end of the year.

[mcs]

I got a feeling we will beat the dogs down here in Canberra on Sunday. We play very well down here usually and have not lost down here in a home and away game for at least a couple of years.

3 wins I reckon will be enough. For when you look at all those teams in contention for 4th, the only team I reckon could win all 5 is Adelaide or possibly Collingwood. On recent form though my thoughts are:

Adelaide: Should beat Richmond at home, Bombers Away and have close matches against Carlton, Dogs and Saints. I would think they will drop at least 1 game there. So say 4 wins there.
Brisbane: All 5 games are tough for them. I reckon they will beat North and Carlton and the other 3 will be close. Id say they will win 4 at most, probably 3.
North: I think they will beat Port, Lose to Geelong, with close games against Brisbane (I said above theyll lose that) the Dogs and Carlton. So 3-4 wins there
Collingwood: Could win all 5, lose all 5 who knows? They are almost as jekyll and hyde as we have been recently. I reckon they will beat us and the Saints, Lose to Hawthorn and should beat Port and Freo but might drop one of them (Two road trips in 5 weeks for The magpies whats going on!) My tip is 4 wins.
Saints should beat the Bombers and Port, tough games against Adelaide and Collingwood and who knows against Freo after this weekends effort at Subiaco. My tip is 4 wins.

So going on that we need 3 wins. Freo at Home is a must, so is Brisbane, Dogs this weekend is critical. Win that and we probably can afford to drop the games to Geelong and Collingwood, lose this weekend and we probably have to win 1 of those two.

So yeh, imo 3 wins will probably be enough for us to sneak into the 4. From there anything can happen, but with the way our injuries are mounting and the severe lack of form for some of our most important players, an early exit in September currently looks likely. We look tired and struggling, but a week is a long time in footy let alone several weeks. We still have the potential for one last real crack in September, but unless our injury crisis subsides and we find a rich vein of form it is hard to see.

But who knows! we possibly only have to win 6 games from here to win the flag At least we are in the mix again- nothing worse imo then getting to this time of the season and being already well and truly out of it and only having next season to look forward to.

[connolly]

I got a feeling we will beat the dogs down here in Canberra on Sunday. We play very well down here usually and have not lost down here in a home and away game for at least a couple of years.

3 wins I reckon will be enough. For when you look at all those teams in contention for 4th, the only team I reckon could win all 5 is Adelaide or possibly Collingwood. On recent form though my thoughts are:

Adelaide: Should beat Richmond at home, Bombers Away and have close matches against Carlton, Dogs and Saints. I would think they will drop at least 1 game there. So say 4 wins there.
Brisbane: All 5 games are tough for them. I reckon they will beat North and Carlton and the other 3 will be close. Id say they will win 4 at most, probably 3.
North: I think they will beat Port, Lose to Geelong, with close games against Brisbane (I said above theyll lose that) the Dogs and Carlton. So 3-4 wins there
Collingwood: Could win all 5, lose all 5 who knows? They are almost as jekyll and hyde as we have been recently. I reckon they will beat us and the Saints, Lose to Hawthorn and should beat Port and Freo but might drop one of them (Two road trips in 5 weeks for The magpies whats going on!) My tip is 4 wins.
Saints should beat the Bombers and Port, tough games against Adelaide and Collingwood and who knows against Freo after this weekends effort at Subiaco. My tip is 4 wins.

So going on that we need 3 wins. Freo at Home is a must, so is Brisbane, Dogs this weekend is critical. Win that and we probably can afford to drop the games to Geelong and Collingwood, lose this weekend and we probably have to win 1 of those two.

So yeh, imo 3 wins will probably be enough for us to sneak into the 4. From there anything can happen, but with the way our injuries are mounting and the severe lack of form for some of our most important players, an early exit in September currently looks likely. We look tired and struggling, but a week is a long time in footy let alone several weeks. We still have the potential for one last real crack in September, but unless our injury crisis subsides and we find a rich vein of form it is hard to see.

But who knows! we possibly only have to win 6 games from here to win the flag At least we are in the mix again- nothing worse imo then getting to this time of the season and being already well and truly out of it and only having next season to look forward to.

What this means is that we have to become supporters of the Tankers. They are in good form and with a strong midfield and Fev playing for a contract (with someone) they are a real threat to the teams below us and could cause the necessary defeats required to keep them below us. Desperate times.

[Darren Thomson]

Yes three more wins may well sew up fourth spot, the worry is can we win three with the current injury list and Barrry Hall down on confidence? At the Adelaide game I have never seen so many kicks hit the post and have never seen our blokes pushed out wide so often for shots at goal. Our defence lacked a little organisation without Leo, The midfield did their usual job, although I thought McVeigh was down a bit, and the forward line did not function period. Play some young blokes if necessary, but lets get some pace running the lines and play direct and fast.

Does anyone know what has hapened to Nic Fosdike? One of our elite running midfielders would come in handy about now

DT

[giant]

Right now three wins looks a long way away. Especially the third win...

[Bas]

Realistically looking 6th or 7th - out first week of finals.

My thoughts exactly. Another successful year!

[hot potato]

I can't figure how enough goals are going to be scored to win any more games with no MOL. Rok's set shots are not much chop. Bazza will be out of form for more games because he's not had match practice.
There are few specialist goalkickers left.
I notice LRT has learnt to kick quite a good drop punt now. He's the one.

Save us from a free fall hyphen, you are THE MAN.

[goswannie14]

My thoughts exactly. Another successful year!

Isn't it funny how times change? A few years ago that would have been a successful year.

[bigswan]

Three wins will secure us fourth place. Two wins will mean we are 5th, 6th or even 7th. One win will mean big trouble. We should beat Freo and Brisbane. Somehow we have to beat the Dogs or Collingwood. It is going to be tough but any game is winnable.

[annew]

Isn't it funny how times change? A few years ago that would have been a successful year.

Surely winning a GF, being runners up in the next GF, then finishing 7th and at Round 17 the next year still contenders for a top 4 berth is a successful era. How times have changed. Seems that unless you do what the Lions did you are deemed unsuccessful. I would bet there are many teams this year that would like to be 4th after Round 17 and only 2 years after playing in a GF.

[chevyaj]

sydney swans

Three wins will secure us fourth place. Two wins will mean we are 5th, 6th or even 7th. One win will mean big trouble. We should beat Freo and Brisbane. Somehow we have to beat the Dogs or Collingwood. It is going to be tough but any game is winnable.

ur right but listen, the sydney swans game vs geelong will be crucial, possibly the most winnable, hopefully goodes is back, malceski firing, barry in the reserves,hall in form and o loughlin in, we should win at LEAST 3......

but iv nick davis comes miraculously back we will win 5!!!!!!

but it all starts on sunnday against the dogs and hall will b firing, or else he ll go at the end of the year.

[msb]

Do we really want to finish 4th?? I dont think so by the way swans played the other night. Geelong has got the flag now, no one wants to lose to them in the GF , hence last weeks round with nearly all top 8 teams losing

[givekidsakick]

you are all bloody dreaming......we are going to get smashed and be lucky to stay in the eight....and who really cares....the bottom line is that we are not good enough to win a GF LET ALONE even get there.