Who is worth trading for high draft picks?

[tombomb]

For round 1 or 2 picks:
Goodes (past his best), Malceski (a return to top form looks debatable at best), Buchanan( inconsistent)
For round 3+ :
Ablett, Grundy, Davis, Fosdike
Retirees:
Barry, Everitt, Mathews, Hall(boxing beckons)

sometimes i really do wonder over the mentality of some of people on here. malceski has played in the same year as doing his knee and already we are saying a return to top form looks debatable ... ridiculous

goodes is apparently past his best, yet we all know he is injured and at the end of last year he played 8 weeks of the best football that you will probably see.

Buchanan - inconsistent? Am i the only one who thinks that he is one of the only players we have who is capable of consistenly breaking the lines and creating run.

grundy, davis, ablett, fosdike would not attract 3rd round picks, maybe very late 3rd round ... but more likely to be somewhere between 50-60. however i doubt anyone would bother with grundy as a trade. If he was available in the preseason draft someone might pick him up.

I could keep going, Hall should not retire ... Since he came back from his first suspension he has basically been our best player and if we were playing well i think he would be back to the form of 03/04/05/06. Leo Barry has already said he wants to play on next year, so he wont be retiring. The only one you probably got right is everitt and mathewss retiring. The rest is garbage.

[snappy]

Rok and Amon would have value.
The rest not sure about.
We need Jolly no doubt about it.
ROK would land us the extra 1st rounder that would definitely go along way in the yrs to come.

[liz]

ROK would land us the extra 1st rounder that would definitely go along way in the yrs to come.

It wouldn't "definitely go a long way". The chance of even a top 10 pick becoming as good a player as O'Keefe has been (and still is) is probably less than one in five. And unless that player went onto become a Gablett, Judd type, it is unlikely they'd make much difference on their own, especially compared to the impact of a club trading (against their will) a player who busts his gut each and every week (even when he's not having a great game).

If O'Keefe, out of contract, wanted to move (is there any evidence or even suggestion he does?) that would be a different matter. But when was the last time a club, any club, voluntarily traded one of its top 5 players still at the peak of his career? It doesn't happen, simply because the chances of the trade paying off are next to nil.

[Nico]

Why on earth would you trade top core players like Goodes, Malceski and O'Keefe. Do that and you can get on for the spoon, put your house on it.

We keep our good core players, restructure with young players coming through to energise the core, reset and go for it. We still have a good core of players. I think it is a matter of throwing the inexperienced players in and leaving them there, we have no other option.

[Legs Akimbo]

That we struggle to see which players on our list could be of interest to other clubs, speaks loudly of the state of our list.

[Wazza]

Probably the only player with currency would be ROK, I wouldnt suggest for a minute we trade ROK for a kid but for an established KPP.

The Swans only need minor tweaks for next year and continued improvement from the kids.

IMHO If we add a experienced KP defender and a established pacey midfielder to our current player group plus given improvement in the kids - Bird Jack Ves & Malceski comes back fit, Goodes is fit, Mattners second year Fossie & Crouch injury free - we could give it a crack.

But we would have to trade ROK and probably give up first draft pick to pick up the 2 experienced players we need.

Chasing a flag can back fire but given many on our list will dissapear after next season maybe on this occasion it is the correct direction to take
??


Cheers

Waz

[snappy]

It wouldn't "definitely go a long way". The chance of even a top 10 pick becoming as good a player as O'Keefe has been (and still is) is probably less than one in five. And unless that player went onto become a Gablett, Judd type, it is unlikely they'd make much difference on their own, especially compared to the impact of a club trading (against their will) a player who busts his gut each and every week (even when he's not having a great game).

If O'Keefe, out of contract, wanted to move (is there any evidence or even suggestion he does?) that would be a different matter. But when was the last time a club, any club, voluntarily traded one of its top 5 players still at the peak of his career? It doesn't happen, simply because the chances of the trade paying off are next to nil.

I generally agree with you Liz, though as far as rebuilding goes and as hypothetical trade talk builds, ROK is the only player in our team that would demand a 1st rounder.
Hes 28 this yr? In another year he might not be worth anything (injuries) who knows. Another year on and GC17 take most of the top young talent. We would be at least 3/5yrs away from being a serious finals team again. The question is weather or not we want to trade vigorously for draft pics. As you said theres no guarantee a 1st rd pick will be good as he is, though imo its definitely worth considering.
Anyway does anyone know how long hes contracted till?

[liz]

Unless he's signed up in the last few weeks and the club has kept it quiet, he's out of contract in a month's time.

[hammo]

Chasing a flag can back fire but given many on our list will dissapear after next season maybe on this occasion it is the correct direction to take
??

The current era is over - even Roos admits it. Topping up a mediocre list would be disastrous for the short to medium term future of the club.

[hudsta]

Trade Spida........for a schooner of Carlton!!


Honestly......we look tired. Yes we need to move on some players but at the sametime we need to give the kids time. Goodes and Mal are clearly injured or coming back from injury and will take a while to come back to form.

I have faith we will be ok

[tombomb]

It wouldn't "definitely go a long way". The chance of even a top 10 pick becoming as good a player as O'Keefe has been (and still is) is probably less than one in five. And unless that player went onto become a Gablett, Judd type, it is unlikely they'd make much difference on their own, especially compared to the impact of a club trading (against their will) a player who busts his gut each and every week (even when he's not having a great game).

If O'Keefe, out of contract, wanted to move (is there any evidence or even suggestion he does?) that would be a different matter. But when was the last time a club, any club, voluntarily traded one of its top 5 players still at the peak of his career? It doesn't happen, simply because the chances of the trade paying off are next to nil.

I think we need to just think a little more practically about where our position is at the moment and where it is going to be in 2-3 years time. All signs suggest that we are going to struggle over the next few years, we have no realy key position players coming through so we have to go for young players in the draft. Im not saying we should give rok away, but if a club like richmond or carlton were happy to give us pick 7 or 8, plus maybe another draft pick then i think we should seriously consider it. There is little sense in having rok at our club over the next few years if we are going to struggle, we may as well look at selling while his price his high.

But yes, he is a premiership player, and he is one of our best players ... so im not suggesting he should be forced out the door.

The only way we are going to improve is if we get some young players into the club, as has been previously stated our opportunities in coming years will be limited given GC17 coming in ... although i think rok would be a prime target for them and we may still be able to trade him next year.

Also, i think the draft, especially the first round is becoming more of an exact science and nearly every first round player over the past few years has played and show themselves to be potential quality players

[reigning premier]

We only have four, maybe five players that are worth anything in the trade market (Well anything more than a 3rd round pick anyway).

Goodes
O'Keefe
Buchanan
Malceski
And, at a stretch, Davis.

Out of them, Goodes isn't going anywhere. Malceski is young enough and good enough to suggest it's worth hanging on to him. That leaves Buchanan and O'Keefe. For which, you'd have to suggest the Swans would only be interested in trading for a 1st rounder or better.

[Matty10]

...I can't think of a single club that would benefit from giving up a 1st round draft pick for Buchanan. Yes, he has the ability to break the lines (not as rare in other clubs as in ours), but he does not consistently work hard enough and his disposal is sub-standard.

If they wanted to make that sort of a trade I would be happy with the decision. Good luck finding any takers though.

[Legs Akimbo]

It wouldn't "definitely go a long way". The chance of even a top 10 pick becoming as good a player as O'Keefe has been (and still is) is probably less than one in five.

You are perhaps underestimating the odds of getting a quality player from a top-10 pick. This does not mean I think we should trade him, but...

Anyway, take a look over the last 10 years and to my eye at least, it appears that the system is getting better at sorting the wheat from the chaff. No way would it be as low as one in five, although clearly it depends on how you define the quality of ROK. I think he's a very good player, but not elite because he doesn't win enough games off his own boot and goes missing for extended periods.

AFL Draft

Furthermore, we all know its about where you are at in the cycle and what groups you have coming through at different ages. We've been topping up in the belief (mistaken in the last two years, IMHO) that we can steal another premiership.

If you accept that a premiership is unlikely for another 4 years, then given our current playing group profile, the potential benefits of Sydney trading up in the draft (within reason) increase.

[Bas]

Well if we don't trade for top picks then the only solution is to bottom out and get them that way. However that only guarantees one pick in top 10 and then possibly another between 16 and 20 before 2nd round.

The Club won't do this for reasons previously given.

So what is the answer?

Spend qnother three pages arguing the pros and cons of trading a particular player.

The Club has added 4 players now to the rookie list with possible future promotion (Murphy, Orreal, Pyke and new Irish guy). I think the first three have a great chance.

We should get Pick 9 or 10 this year and then next would be about Pick 29.

I think there is no alternatibe but to trade for another first round pick in a draft that many are saying will be very good. Which player? Rather which Club should we target.