reality has set in

[The Big Cat]

If you look at the clubs who have won premierships (and can just as easily include those who have even got to a GF) for a pattern of how premiership-challenging squads are built, the one blindingly clear conclusion is that there is absolutely no pattern.

Well said Liz. There is no pattern. Hawthorn built with early draft choices and trades of established stars. Geelong didn't trade out good players but has ben unbelievably well treated by the father son rule (G. Ablett, N. Ablett, Scarlett, Hawkins, Blake, Woolnough (did knee) Callen (traded to WB). All these players were obtained for 3rd or fourth round draft choices. Sydney built their team as a mixture of trades and drafts, Port gained theirs through drafts and the concessional picks they were given when they entered the AFL. We all know how the West Coast won theirs! (what a pity it has been swept under the AFL carpet)

St Kilda and Carlton have got more first round picks than a miner's store and as yet neither has gained the ultimate prize. (It annoys me that Carlton's reward for winning a flag through cheating has handed them the means of making an assault on another one) Bust your guts to be the best you can and you finish up like North, middle of the table each year.

[DST]

Aren't 16 clubs already planning for their next premiership. For a couple, they can reasonably hope it might arrive within the next 6 months. A few more might have their fingers crossed that it could happen this year. But for most, they accept it is somewhere in the future.

What does building for the next premiership actually entail? If you look at the clubs who have won premierships (and can just as easily include those who have even got to a GF) for a pattern of how premiership-challenging squads are built, the one blindingly clear conclusion is that there is absolutely no pattern.

What's even worse is building a half decent side that could win you a premiership in most years only to run into Geelong over the last three years. I fear the Western Bulldogs may end up going that way, say for a power forward and the Geelong Football Club they may have won one last year or this year.

Even St Kilda are in the twighlight zone, good enough team to win it but they may just not if Geelong carry on this year and next and their window closes.

DST

[jono2707]

I must say that this is a really good thread so far in that most people that have posted have presented well thought out and interesting opinions. A nice mix of intelligemce and passion.

I am in the camp of avoiding tanking at all costs. I expect the Swannies to give every match a crack and if we end up losing a few too many for our liking over the next few years, well so be it. I think we still have enough talent and hardness to at least be competitive without having to drop to the bottom of the ladder.

Like others I agree it will be interesting to see how our young-uns develop over the next few years. Some wont make it, some will be decent players and some will hopefully be guns (I see Meredith and Veszpremi as having the potential to blossom). I am also a real believer in trading for a top-class replacement to Big Bad Barry, who surely is done after this year. Dunno who would be available though....

Anyway keep up the good posts on this thread - good to hear some honest constructive opinions as to our future.

[laughingnome]

Bust your guts to be the best you can and you finish up like North, middle of the table each year.

With no support, no love, and no money.

[Bloody Hell]

# Player
1 Barry Hall 32
2 Rhyce Shaw 28
3 Jarrad McVeigh 24
4 Dan Hannebery 18
5 Ryan O'Keefe 28
6 Craig Bolton 30
7 Brett Meredith 20
8 Daniel O'Keefe 21
9 Nick Malceski 25
10 Daniel Currie 20
11 Eddie Barlow 22
12
13 Patrick Veszpremi 20
14 Craig Bird 20
15 Keiran Jack 22
16 Darren Jolly 28
17
18 Jesse White 21
19 Michael O'Loughlin 32
20 Luke Ablett 27
21 Leo Barry 32
22 Matthew Laidlaw 22
23 Lewis Johnston
24 Jude Bolton 29
25 Ted Richards 26
26 Henry Playfair 26
27 Kristin Thornton 21
28 Jared Crouch 31
29 Martin Mattner 31
30 Lewis Roberts-Thomson 26
31 Brett Kirk 34
32 Amon Buchanan 27
33 Jarred Moore 23
34 Ryan Brabazon 23
35 Heath Campbell
36 Tim Schmidt 23
37 Adam Goodes 29
38 Brett Meredith 20...again
39 Heath Grundy 23
40 Nick Smith 21
41 Brendan Murphy 20
42 Paul Bevan 24
43 Matthew O'Dwyer 21
44 Jake Orreal 20

Ages at the end of the year...I think.

Two things...very young list, and what is Ryan Brabazon doing? Have to be the luckiest man on that list considering he hasn't played a senior game.

[ROK Lobster]

# Player

37 Adam Goodes 21


Ages at the end of the year...I think.

2 Brownlows before he was 20! What a star!

[DST]

I am also a real believer in trading for a top-class replacement to Big Bad Barry, who surely is done after this year. Dunno who would be available though....

I have no doubt that a replacement KP forward or defender will be on the shopping list this year or next via a trade, Andrew Ireland would have a whiteboard with potential names written all over it.

They need to be between 20 and 23, have played a minimum of 40 games, have shown some potential and are being held back for either a lack of a spot in their current team or a crappy developmental system such as Richmond or Fremantle that just is not getting the best out of them.

DST

[DST]

Looking at it from an age, form and injury perspective, our current senior and rookie list can be broken up into the following groups of players over the next 38 games and leading into round 1 2011:

Retiring:

Barry Hall
Michael O'Loughlin
Leo Barry
Jared Crouch
Brett Kirk

Question marks over the following regarding their development, form or injuries:

Ed Barlow (can he get the mental side of the game right)
Luke Ablett (will his form justify a spot)
Amon Buchanan (can he get back to where he was in 05 & 06)
Ryan Brabazon (probably never going to make it to senior level)
Matthew Laidlaw (will he fix his body)
Daniel O'Keefe (a bit like Laidlaw, will injuries allow him to play like he could)
Henry Playfair (another injury unknown)
Matthew O'Dwyer (patchy development)
Nick Smith (shows promise)
Brendan Murphy (will the experiment work)
Myke Pyke (ditto for Pyke)
Kyle Coney (will he come back and turn potential into games)
Jake Orreal (the greatest gamble of them all)
Taylor Gilchrist (too early to call)
Heath Campbell (too early to call as well)

The following group will be the core come round 1 2011:

Rhyce Shaw
Jarrad McVeigh
Dan Hannebery (has been bumped to core due to early reviews)
Ryan O'Keefe
Craig Bolton
Brett Meredith
Nick Malceski
Daniel Currie
Patrick Veszpremi
Craig Bird
Keiran Jack
Darren Jolly
Jesse White
Lewis Johnston (has been bumped to core due to early reviews)
Jude Bolton
Ted Richards
Kristin Thornton
Martin Mattner
Lewis Roberts-Thomson
Jarred Moore
Tim Schmidt
Adam Goodes
Heath Grundy
Paul Bevan

DST

[Mr Magoo]

From the list above - tim scmidt would have to be in the maybes rather than core. Has hardly played a game over the last two years.

[Yakety_Yak]

I vist infrequently,post even less, sometimes critical of what I read.


......but congratulations to all on this thread!

Made me think hard..well thought out stuff.

[Hartijon]

The exciting thing is it really comes down to coaching,team plans and attitude. The only x factor is "star quality" which as Buddy,Goodes and many other have shown us can come from deep into the draft.This gives us as much chance as anyother team to hit the top again. The coach who can turn mediocre players into very good reliable players will get his team up.If we can continue our excellent recruiting of fringe players from other teams that turn into champions (C.Bolton)and pick up more Shaw /Mattner types we will be there sooner rather than later.

[Bob Neil]

reality has set in

Bugger, I didn't get the email.

How long's it going to last until we can put the rose coloured glasses back on?

[Mr Magoo]

Bugger, I didn't get the email.

How long's it going to last until we can put the rose coloured glasses back on?

Probably monday if we come out and give the weagles a flogging minus kerr, priddis and hunter

[caj23]

Goodes, Micky O and McVeigh aside, the current team lacks X factor, the types of players who can win a game off their own boot.

Whilst Thornton, Jack, Grundy Schmidt and co have shown enough to suggest that they will probably be solid to very good players they do not have that X factor and short of some very smart short term recruiting, i think we are doomed for a couple more mid table finishes in the next couple of seasons

I think our recruiting in the last couple of drafts has been better in this regard with potential gamebreakers like Vez, Johnson and Hanneberry, but i think we are going to have to be patient

[satchmopugdog]

Goodes, Micky O and McVeigh aside, the current team lacks X factor, the types of players who can win a game off their own boot.

Whilst Thornton, Jack, Grundy Schmidt and co have shown enough to suggest that they will probably be solid to very good players they do not have that X factor and short of some very smart short term recruiting, i think we are doomed for a couple more mid table finishes in the next couple of seasons

I think our recruiting in the last couple of drafts has been better in this regard with potential gamebreakers like Vez, Johnson and Hanneberry, but i think we are going to have to be patient

Very well said Will..you are a bit too eloquent for a ruckman. Who do you talk to when there are ruckman gatherings?