reality has set in

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  • The Big Cat
    On the veteran's list
    • Apr 2006
    • 2356

    #16
    Originally posted by liz
    If you look at the clubs who have won premierships (and can just as easily include those who have even got to a GF) for a pattern of how premiership-challenging squads are built, the one blindingly clear conclusion is that there is absolutely no pattern.
    Well said Liz. There is no pattern. Hawthorn built with early draft choices and trades of established stars. Geelong didn't trade out good players but has ben unbelievably well treated by the father son rule (G. Ablett, N. Ablett, Scarlett, Hawkins, Blake, Woolnough (did knee) Callen (traded to WB). All these players were obtained for 3rd or fourth round draft choices. Sydney built their team as a mixture of trades and drafts, Port gained theirs through drafts and the concessional picks they were given when they entered the AFL. We all know how the West Coast won theirs! (what a pity it has been swept under the AFL carpet)

    St Kilda and Carlton have got more first round picks than a miner's store and as yet neither has gained the ultimate prize. (It annoys me that Carlton's reward for winning a flag through cheating has handed them the means of making an assault on another one) Bust your guts to be the best you can and you finish up like North, middle of the table each year.
    Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.

    Comment

    • DST
      The voice of reason!
      • Jan 2003
      • 2705

      #17
      Originally posted by liz
      Aren't 16 clubs already planning for their next premiership. For a couple, they can reasonably hope it might arrive within the next 6 months. A few more might have their fingers crossed that it could happen this year. But for most, they accept it is somewhere in the future.

      What does building for the next premiership actually entail? If you look at the clubs who have won premierships (and can just as easily include those who have even got to a GF) for a pattern of how premiership-challenging squads are built, the one blindingly clear conclusion is that there is absolutely no pattern.
      What's even worse is building a half decent side that could win you a premiership in most years only to run into Geelong over the last three years. I fear the Western Bulldogs may end up going that way, say for a power forward and the Geelong Football Club they may have won one last year or this year.

      Even St Kilda are in the twighlight zone, good enough team to win it but they may just not if Geelong carry on this year and next and their window closes.

      DST
      "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"

      Comment

      • jono2707
        Goes up to 11
        • Oct 2007
        • 3326

        #18
        I must say that this is a really good thread so far in that most people that have posted have presented well thought out and interesting opinions. A nice mix of intelligemce and passion.

        I am in the camp of avoiding tanking at all costs. I expect the Swannies to give every match a crack and if we end up losing a few too many for our liking over the next few years, well so be it. I think we still have enough talent and hardness to at least be competitive without having to drop to the bottom of the ladder.

        Like others I agree it will be interesting to see how our young-uns develop over the next few years. Some wont make it, some will be decent players and some will hopefully be guns (I see Meredith and Veszpremi as having the potential to blossom). I am also a real believer in trading for a top-class replacement to Big Bad Barry, who surely is done after this year. Dunno who would be available though....

        Anyway keep up the good posts on this thread - good to hear some honest constructive opinions as to our future.

        Comment

        • laughingnome
          Amateur Statsman
          • Jul 2006
          • 1624

          #19
          Originally posted by The Big Cat
          Bust your guts to be the best you can and you finish up like North, middle of the table each year.
          With no support, no love, and no money.
          10100111001 ;-)

          Comment

          • Bloody Hell
            Senior Player
            • Oct 2006
            • 3085

            #20
            # Player
            1 Barry Hall 32
            2 Rhyce Shaw 28
            3 Jarrad McVeigh 24
            4 Dan Hannebery 18
            5 Ryan O'Keefe 28
            6 Craig Bolton 30
            7 Brett Meredith 20
            8 Daniel O'Keefe 21
            9 Nick Malceski 25
            10 Daniel Currie 20
            11 Eddie Barlow 22
            12
            13 Patrick Veszpremi 20
            14 Craig Bird 20
            15 Keiran Jack 22
            16 Darren Jolly 28
            17
            18 Jesse White 21
            19 Michael O'Loughlin 32
            20 Luke Ablett 27
            21 Leo Barry 32
            22 Matthew Laidlaw 22
            23 Lewis Johnston
            24 Jude Bolton 29
            25 Ted Richards 26
            26 Henry Playfair 26
            27 Kristin Thornton 21
            28 Jared Crouch 31
            29 Martin Mattner 31
            30 Lewis Roberts-Thomson 26
            31 Brett Kirk 34
            32 Amon Buchanan 27
            33 Jarred Moore 23
            34 Ryan Brabazon 23
            35 Heath Campbell
            36 Tim Schmidt 23
            37 Adam Goodes 29
            38 Brett Meredith 20...again
            39 Heath Grundy 23
            40 Nick Smith 21
            41 Brendan Murphy 20
            42 Paul Bevan 24
            43 Matthew O'Dwyer 21
            44 Jake Orreal 20

            Ages at the end of the year...I think.

            Two things...very young list, and what is Ryan Brabazon doing? Have to be the luckiest man on that list considering he hasn't played a senior game.
            Last edited by Bloody Hell; 12 May 2009, 10:53 PM.
            The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

            Comment

            • ROK Lobster
              RWO Life Member
              • Aug 2004
              • 8658

              #21
              Originally posted by Bloody Hell
              # Player

              37 Adam Goodes 21


              Ages at the end of the year...I think.
              2 Brownlows before he was 20! What a star!

              Comment

              • DST
                The voice of reason!
                • Jan 2003
                • 2705

                #22
                Originally posted by jono2707
                I am also a real believer in trading for a top-class replacement to Big Bad Barry, who surely is done after this year. Dunno who would be available though....
                I have no doubt that a replacement KP forward or defender will be on the shopping list this year or next via a trade, Andrew Ireland would have a whiteboard with potential names written all over it.

                They need to be between 20 and 23, have played a minimum of 40 games, have shown some potential and are being held back for either a lack of a spot in their current team or a crappy developmental system such as Richmond or Fremantle that just is not getting the best out of them.

                DST
                "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"

                Comment

                • DST
                  The voice of reason!
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 2705

                  #23
                  Looking at it from an age, form and injury perspective, our current senior and rookie list can be broken up into the following groups of players over the next 38 games and leading into round 1 2011:

                  Retiring:

                  Barry Hall
                  Michael O'Loughlin
                  Leo Barry
                  Jared Crouch
                  Brett Kirk

                  Question marks over the following regarding their development, form or injuries:

                  Ed Barlow (can he get the mental side of the game right)
                  Luke Ablett (will his form justify a spot)
                  Amon Buchanan (can he get back to where he was in 05 & 06)
                  Ryan Brabazon (probably never going to make it to senior level)
                  Matthew Laidlaw (will he fix his body)
                  Daniel O'Keefe (a bit like Laidlaw, will injuries allow him to play like he could)
                  Henry Playfair (another injury unknown)
                  Matthew O'Dwyer (patchy development)
                  Nick Smith (shows promise)
                  Brendan Murphy (will the experiment work)
                  Myke Pyke (ditto for Pyke)
                  Kyle Coney (will he come back and turn potential into games)
                  Jake Orreal (the greatest gamble of them all)
                  Taylor Gilchrist (too early to call)
                  Heath Campbell (too early to call as well)

                  The following group will be the core come round 1 2011:

                  Rhyce Shaw
                  Jarrad McVeigh
                  Dan Hannebery (has been bumped to core due to early reviews)
                  Ryan O'Keefe
                  Craig Bolton
                  Brett Meredith
                  Nick Malceski
                  Daniel Currie
                  Patrick Veszpremi
                  Craig Bird
                  Keiran Jack
                  Darren Jolly
                  Jesse White
                  Lewis Johnston (has been bumped to core due to early reviews)
                  Jude Bolton
                  Ted Richards
                  Kristin Thornton
                  Martin Mattner
                  Lewis Roberts-Thomson
                  Jarred Moore
                  Tim Schmidt
                  Adam Goodes
                  Heath Grundy
                  Paul Bevan

                  DST
                  "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"

                  Comment

                  • Mr Magoo
                    Senior Player
                    • May 2008
                    • 1255

                    #24
                    From the list above - tim scmidt would have to be in the maybes rather than core. Has hardly played a game over the last two years.

                    Comment

                    • Yakety_Yak
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Sep 2006
                      • 58

                      #25
                      I vist infrequently,post even less, sometimes critical of what I read.


                      ......but congratulations to all on this thread!

                      Made me think hard..well thought out stuff.

                      Comment

                      • Hartijon
                        On the Rookie List
                        • May 2008
                        • 1536

                        #26
                        The exciting thing is it really comes down to coaching,team plans and attitude. The only x factor is "star quality" which as Buddy,Goodes and many other have shown us can come from deep into the draft.This gives us as much chance as anyother team to hit the top again. The coach who can turn mediocre players into very good reliable players will get his team up.If we can continue our excellent recruiting of fringe players from other teams that turn into champions (C.Bolton)and pick up more Shaw /Mattner types we will be there sooner rather than later.

                        Comment

                        • Bob Neil
                          Opportunistic Join Date
                          • Sep 2005
                          • 313

                          #27
                          reality has set in

                          Bugger, I didn't get the email.

                          How long's it going to last until we can put the rose coloured glasses back on?

                          Comment

                          • Mr Magoo
                            Senior Player
                            • May 2008
                            • 1255

                            #28
                            Originally posted by Bob Neil
                            Bugger, I didn't get the email.

                            How long's it going to last until we can put the rose coloured glasses back on?
                            Probably monday if we come out and give the weagles a flogging minus kerr, priddis and hunter

                            Comment

                            • caj23
                              Senior Player
                              • Aug 2003
                              • 2462

                              #29
                              Goodes, Micky O and McVeigh aside, the current team lacks X factor, the types of players who can win a game off their own boot.

                              Whilst Thornton, Jack, Grundy Schmidt and co have shown enough to suggest that they will probably be solid to very good players they do not have that X factor and short of some very smart short term recruiting, i think we are doomed for a couple more mid table finishes in the next couple of seasons

                              I think our recruiting in the last couple of drafts has been better in this regard with potential gamebreakers like Vez, Johnson and Hanneberry, but i think we are going to have to be patient

                              Comment

                              • satchmopugdog
                                Bandicoots ears
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 3691

                                #30
                                Originally posted by Will Sangster
                                Goodes, Micky O and McVeigh aside, the current team lacks X factor, the types of players who can win a game off their own boot.

                                Whilst Thornton, Jack, Grundy Schmidt and co have shown enough to suggest that they will probably be solid to very good players they do not have that X factor and short of some very smart short term recruiting, i think we are doomed for a couple more mid table finishes in the next couple of seasons

                                I think our recruiting in the last couple of drafts has been better in this regard with potential gamebreakers like Vez, Johnson and Hanneberry, but i think we are going to have to be patient
                                Very well said Will..you are a bit too eloquent for a ruckman. Who do you talk to when there are ruckman gatherings?
                                "The Dog days are over, The Dog days are gone" Florence and the Machine

                                Comment

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