reality has set in

[johnno]

I remember one Saturday night, back in 2006, it was round 21 and the swans were hosting the Lions at ANZ stadium, it was a cold, wet, miserable night in Melbourne, but I made my way out to the Bells hotel to watch the swans match on foxtel, not many people there, just a handful(the night was an absolute shocker weather wise), we took care of the Lions pretty easily that night, somethig like 97 points to 40. At that place sitting nearby was a group of men, having a few, one of these men was a very passionate Lions supporter who kept praising his side and slagging the swans, even though we were destroying them. I was thinking to myself as this was going on..."poor Lions supporters, they are still clinging to the 2001-2004 glory years and they still havent come to terms with the fact that the Lions are not the team they once were and they cannot come to terms with the fact that they are a middle of the road team at best". Up until the fremantle game, I guess you could say I was a bit like that Lions supporter(except for the abusing of opposition teams, and some of his comments were quite rude), I still felt if we played at our best, we could still be very competitive and sneak a top 4 finish and with a bit of luck make a prelim and possibly a Granny. But as the title of the thread suggests, I think reality has finally set in and I have to admit, the swans are not what they once were(glory years of 2003-2006). As this reality has set in, I cant help but think about that night and that man and what my thoughts were of the Lions and its supporters at that time. What do other here think?

[ernie koala]

For the past 2 seasons we have been an up and down side, on our day capable of beating most sides (geelong ,collingwood and adelaide were the exceptions). But there was no doubt our slide was well and truely underway in 2007. Our finals campaign was proof of that. Serious rebuilding should of started then. Instead Roos and co have fiddled around the edges, instead of making the hard decisions. Now we are left with many, seemingly, spent players in their 30's, and compromised drafts around the corner. Hindsight makes it easy, but our well paid football department have sat on their hands too long. Now ,2 years too late, reality seems to have set in for Roos and co also, as talk of rebuilding gathers momentum.

[Mr Magoo]

I sometimes wonder if the football department always felt they needed to get swans supporters on side regarding rebuilding, so they have put the mantra out that they couldnt afford to rebuild so that when the time came they could do so with supporters actually supporting such a proposition. I sort of agree that there would have been a lot of outrage if we had gone about delisting and trading premiership players even in 2007. Look at how much has been made of Schneider and Davis and the trades we recevied for these guys were either nothing or negligible. Its not like we ever had a list that we could trade for top ten draft picks . Okeefe last year proved that. Therefore it would in some respects have been a relatively fruitless exercise to cull players to the extent some are calling for. All it would have meant is that we would have picked up a whole lot of young guys from lower down in the draft with questionable future talent.

Swans are now at a point where premiership fringe players have left or are not playing firsts and we have a lot of youngsters coming through. We will drop down (probably similarly to Brisbane) and hopefully we can begin to rebuild in the ten year cycle as intended to by the league in setting up the draft system. Unfortunately we may hit the compromised drafts which may mean that cycle is even longer.

[31 hard at it]

There are quite a few players who stood on that Dias with the Cup in 2005 who are no longer with the team and the remaining players are all 4 years older and carrying a few scars.

The youngsters have started coming through but as we saw last week cannot match it with the top teams yet.

We need everyone on top of their game to win any game this year.
It is such an even season that we could still sneak a top 8 place (just).

But several retirements at the end of this year will virtually close the doors on the class of 2005 and we are in the hands of Thornton, Meridith, Jack etc to build a new team and culture for the next 5 years.

[Bas]

I'm surprised it took this long for the reality to set in for you.

We haven't been a threat for two years. This is the third. We made up numbers in the finals in the last ywo years. Lucky to get to second round last year but never a chance after beating the roos.

This year we probably won't even make the 8. The Talking Heads in Melbourne say that over the last 6 years, the top 8 has been set after round 8. Although this year there are alot of teams fighting for the bottom of the top 8. If we do make the 8, we won't get too far. I hope we miss the 8, then some more serious changes might be made to playing personnel.

So get used to it. Just the way it is.

PS - If you are in the RWO footy tipping comp, don't stop picking the Swans.

[IrishSwanPerth]

The eagles are already planning for the future and they have won a grand final since we have and the way things are going they will win another before we do.
I reckon we should be building to have a serious crack again in 5-6 yrs time.

Forget about making up the eight, Collingwood have made up the eight for a long time and are no better off Brisbane will do the same the way they are going. Plus I see the Bull Dogs are going down the same path

[Lucky Knickers]

The eagles are already planning for the future and they have won a grand final since we have and the way things are going they will win another before we do.

Please explain your thoughts behind the statement above.

[cruiser]

The eagles are already planning for the future and they have won a grand final since we have and the way things are going they will win another before we do.
I reckon we should be building to have a serious crack again in 5-6 yrs time.

Forget about making up the eight, Collingwood have made up the eight for a long time and are no better off Brisbane will do the same the way they are going. Plus I see the Bull Dogs are going down the same path

I hate that attitude. If I dont see the Swans plays in a GF for 20 years, but playing in the finals every year, I will be a very proud supporter indeed, and more proud of my team than I am of tanking scum like the Evils, Carlton, Hawthorn and the biggest tanking underachievers of all time, St Kilda.

[liz]

Aren't 16 clubs already planning for their next premiership. For a couple, they can reasonably hope it might arrive within the next 6 months. A few more might have their fingers crossed that it could happen this year. But for most, they accept it is somewhere in the future.

What does building for the next premiership actually entail? If you look at the clubs who have won premierships (and can just as easily include those who have even got to a GF) for a pattern of how premiership-challenging squads are built, the one blindingly clear conclusion is that there is absolutely no pattern.

[Darren Thomson]

Problems occcur because of the fickle nature of MONEY. If we don't win games, sponsorship and crowds decline, then how do we import good players when we can't match salary with others. Or keep better players. Developing younger talent while keeping the team in a place where it is capable of winniing games is a really good balancing act, and as has been stated by others on our day we can trouble any team. If we lost 10 in a row, an awful lot of people would drop off, and Yes I still remmber the dark days of losing 26 straight, especially that St Kilda game where Lockett kicked 10 in the last quarter and we lost by a point. DE spair. But we should probably be ready to bite the bullet for the next couple years. Hall and Mick, and Leo will retire at some point. Kirky's not getting younger, although at his pace he could probably play til he's 45 and don't take that the wrong way. Where would we be without him, no real leader. Time for McVeigh and co to step up and lead, bring on the kids and let them learn the hard way, by losing, playing on good players and getting beaten to the ball etc. We will have to suffer at some point

[mcs]

The eagles are already planning for the future and they have won a grand final since we have and the way things are going they will win another before we do.
I reckon we should be building to have a serious crack again in 5-6 yrs time.

Forget about making up the eight, Collingwood have made up the eight for a long time and are no better off Brisbane will do the same the way they are going. Plus I see the Bull Dogs are going down the same path

I don't get you IrishSwanPerth. In one thread you are slagging us for signing Pyke (Which is a medium to long term move) and now you are trying to say we need to build for a serious crack again in 5-6 years time? Um I'd say that is what we are doing. He is only 24 and in 5-6 years time should he make a successful convert (Which looks so far quite a strong possibility) then he could turn out to be an inspired signing. We also have several younger players coming into the team this season,and there will be plenty more to come over the next season or two. I'd say we are doing exactly what you are saying we should, and still doing reasonably in the league (Compared to other teams that have bottomed out) as well.

No matter where you are in the rebuilding stage, you still should aim for the very best result overall for the year that you can. To me that is a no brainer. I'm guessing (And only guessing, not assuming) you'd prefer us to go down the tanking route would you and bottom out completely in that sense??

As has been said many a time before, by many people involved with the football club, it really isn't a viable option in the Sydney market, especially with the AFL's move to introduce a 2nd team into Sydney.

[connolly]

I hate that attitude. If I dont see the Swans plays in a GF for 20 years, but playing in the finals every year, I will be a very proud supporter indeed, and more proud of my team than I am of tanking scum like the Evils, Carlton, Hawthorn and the biggest tanking underachievers of all time, St Kilda.

Well said. The day that a team in red and white doesn't have a go is the demise of everything this club has been and will be.

[DST]

The current team (which is in transition) will probably see us win most of our games at home (8 out of 11) and maybe one or two on the road this year.

The simple facts are we now have a group of young players in the starting 22 who are not capable of providing week in and out top efforts and will also struggle on the road. That's okay the team is in transition and I can handle that.

I would think this will be the same for next year and how successful we are after 2010 will come down to how we blend the new group in over the next 38 games (or 39 if we play a final this year) and how many of those are able to make a go of their opportunities.

By end of the 2010 season will need the likes of Bird, Jack, Moore, Schmidt, White, Currie, Laidlaw, Vezpremi, Merideth, Thornton, Laidlaw, Johnston and Hannabery all considered good enough to be in our starting 22, But what that shows is that we will need to trade hard for a KP defender or two come the end of 2010 to see the squad be able to compete with other top 6 sides at this stage.

By way of looking at things, this is what a Swans side could look like come round 1 in 2011:

B: Mattner C Bolton Richards
HB: Shaw LRT Laidlaw
C: Merideth Bird Malceski
HF: ROK Johnston Goodes
FF: Moore White Hannabery

R: Jolly McVeigh Vezpremi

Int: Currie Jack Grundy Schmidt

Emergency: Murphy Thornton and a couple of others around the mark

How succesfull we are at getting these youngsters into the team will determine if there will be a place for Bevan, Buchanan, Ablett and maybe even Barlow if he can get a shot of urgency into his game come 2010.

Looking at the list by then I really think we wll need to trade for a decent KP defender and draft for some further pace up forward.

The talent is tight, but if we can get decent footballers out the group of youngsters we have now, it won't take much to rebuild a side again for another tilt beyond 2010.

DST

[Bloody Hell]

What about Murphy and Mike Pyke?

Murphy shouldn't be en emergency in 2010.

[DST]

We will drop down (probably similarly to Brisbane) and hopefully we can begin to rebuild in the ten year cycle as intended to by the league in setting up the draft system. Unfortunately we may hit the compromised drafts which may mean that cycle is even longer.

It really rests in the hands of Schmidt, Laidlaw, Moore, Bird, Jack, Currie, Thornton, White, Vespremi, Merideth, Johnston, Hannabery and to a lesser extent our three punts on Murphy, Coney and Pyke.

If the bulk of those players turn out to be decent 100 to 200 game players then we will probably dodge the compromised drafts as we will have a core group.

Luck out with these younger players and we will be in trouble come 2011 and beyond.

What we are also going to see come draft time in 2010 is a lot more decent fringe players in their mid 20's traded for early second round picks as clubs look to replenish with the earliest draft choices possible and the only currency available will be player trades unless you are the GC17.

We have been very good at targeting and obtaining mature age players that fit specific team requirements. This should stand us in good stead when the player trading starts big time with free agency and compromised drafts in 2010.

DST