The Value of a Draft Pick

[caj23]

A first round draft pick gets a wage of about $60000 plus match payments,minimum 2 year contract.
Luke ball was asking for $500000 a year, minimum 2 year contract. Once a player puts a price on his head it must be paid.
Western Bulldogs pick 15, Port pick 9-10-16, Geelong 17, Brisbane 27, Adelaide 13-29, Sydney 6-14 all could have taken him if they either had room in there salery cap. Sydney probably had the room but would'nt pay that much.

Yes one positive out of this is that the Pies are paying him well over the odds. There might be a few players with their nose out of joint if he doesn't perform for them on the field in 2010

[707]

I hope I'm not proved wrong but I don't think Luke Ball has ever fulfilled his potential of being pick 2. There is a reason he wasn't playing this year for St.Kilda.

I think he's a great extractor but slow and can't kick. To me he's a poor man's Brett Kirk.

Was he a bargain at pick 30, well of course he was and it was manipulation that let him slip that far. Interesting that a number of Collingwood players had to change their salaries to fit in Ball's $500K per year in 2010 & 2011.

Let's wait and see whether we got value for Jolly. I was happy with picks 14 & 46, it got us Jetta and McGlynn and we are in a stronger ruck position as well. Mumford may prove a real bargain.

Collingwood have put a lot of eggs in the Jolly/Ball basket, time will tell if they got it right.

[Chilcott]

Collingwood paid over the odds for Ball - not much of a player in my opinion. Couldn't get a game at St Kilda because he is one-dimensional. Not much pace and not a very good kick. Is an extractor only.

[Bloody Hell]

Seeing St Kilda get nothing for Ball has made me feel a lot better about getting #14 for Jolly.

Since I started this thread Roos has come out and said that Rohan and Jetta were the two the swans wanted. So presumably if we had pick 7 we would have taken Jetta.

So now I can pretend we got picks 7 and 46 for Jolly...which is much closer to what I would have expected. (Think he should have been around #4.)

Which comes back to the point....somewhat.

When I was a very young man I recall watching an educational cartoon that explained how money evolved from bartering.

Person A wanted a chair - so they went to the chairmaker to purchase a chair. All they had to barter with was a bag of seeds. The chairmaker didn't want any seeds...he wanted a new hammer and saw. So Person A went to the blacksmith to get a new hammer and saw for the chairmaker....but the blacksmith didn't want seeds...he wanted a new saddle for his horse...so Person A went to the horseman....who didn't want seeds he wanted some hay for horses. So Person A went to the Farmer to get some hay. The farmer wanted the seeds! So person A took the hay to the horseman, the saddle to the blacksmith the hammer and saw to the chairman and got their chair!....What a great story...

That pretty much sums up the trading process for me.

Why not allocate values next to draft positions and players?

Draft #1 = 10000
Draft #2 = 9250
Draft #3 = 8750
Draft #4 = 8350
etc

Then using a system like the Dreamteam or similar that takes into account everything - age, matches played, TOG, likelyhood of injuries....any factor you want to consider - then you come up with a number to put against the player. With the process presided over by a committee for transparency and consistancy.

Adam Goodes = 12223

Amon Buchanan = 4766

If you don't think the player is worth it don't sell or buy.

Clubs could bank points and go on a spending spree on any given year. Clubs could "sell" unwanted draft picks back to the AFL for trade units.

Take the Jolly example. Say Jolly was worth 8855. The team that wants him only has the #4 pick to trade. So for the trade to work we would would have to give over Jolly and receive the #4 plus 505 trade units.

Trade done everyone's happy - everyone has paid market price.

How much sense does this make and how easy would it be to implement????

Get on it AFL!!!

[liz]

That pretty much sums up the trading process for me.

Why not allocate values next to draft positions and players?

Draft #1 = 10000
Draft #2 = 9250
Draft #3 = 8750
Draft #4 = 8350
etc

Then using a system like the Dreamteam or similar that takes into account everything - age, matches played, TOG, likelyhood of injuries....any factor you want to consider - then you come up with a number to put against the player. With the process presided over by a committee for transparency and consistancy.

I came up with a similar idea earlier during trade week but don't think I ever posted it anywhere!

It would essentially introduce trading using Monopoly money and could solve so many of the real and perceived problems of the current trading system - like illiquidity and non-divisibility of current trade currency.

Specifically, it could be used to effectively implement free agency while ensuring the club losing the player gets decent value in return. For a player out of contract, the rule could be that their current club has to trade them to their club of choice - if they have one (and of course assuming that club wants the player). Minimum fees could either be set by a formula or by an arbitration panel and the issue of the new club not having anything they are willing to trade that the losing club wants is eliminated.

The main challenge would be to set the amount of currency available to clubs and the price scale such that trading credits were a relatively scarce commodity - ie a club like Hawthorn wanting a Burgoyne or the Pies wanting Jolly would actually have to go out and raise the necessary credits by selling something to a club that wanted it, unless they had stockpiled credits from previous years by trading away picks or players.

Another problem it could fix is the priority pick system. Rather than giving crap clubs over generous access to top draft picks, just give them enough extra credits to go out and trade for a decent player - or buy another decent pick if they can find a club willing to sell one. It might encourage struggling clubs to seek more immediate improvement by recruiting decent seasoned players, rather than putting all their eggs in the basket of 18yos, whose impact won't be felt for a few years.


I'd also love to see a system like this used to further decouple draft pick allocations from previous year's performance. Clubs could receive the top picks on a rotational basis, meaning all clubs have access sometimes to the highest quality young players and the AFL would still have a system to help struggling clubs rebuild - but as I say above, by recruiting experienced players who will have an impact sooner. It could get rid of the perception (or the reality) of tanking, since the difference between finishing 16th and 15th wouldn't be access to the absolute best young player, but rather a more marginal difference in the additional trading credits allocated.

[Bloody Hell]

I came up with a similar idea earlier during trade week but don't think I ever posted it anywhere!

Great minds....

I didn't want to go into too much detail for fear of being accused of thinking too much again - but I was working along similar lines of having an all encompassing system, to the point that rather monetary sanctions being placed on a club for misdemeaners - the club would loose trade points. Then see everyone fall in line!

An interesting aspect would be the value put on the No. 1 pick compared to existing elite players.

Coming up with inital credits could be done for the first draft - then it's up to the club to manage. A club could sell pick 15, 50 etc back to the AFL for credits if required, then those picks could be bought by another club or just skipped on draft day if not wanted. If you choose to pass on draft day you get the credit value of that pick. I wouldn't be against giving an annual allowance to clubs as well, but if the system could operate without it all the better.

There's always new picks "given" each year, so always liquidity being generated.

You could also have an overdraft if you really need it one year, with a rigid repayment scheme over the following years.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I think we can easily afford another big name in 2011 I think we are saving way over $600k pa of the salary cap and by prepaying in 2010 we maybe able to go for 2 x $500k pa players for 2011 season !!

we have so many young players that will increase in 2011, 2012 quite significantly also - ie approx 6 to 10 of them could go from $60kpa to $200k plus pa

Supposedly we have been sitting on the 91% (spend n the cap) for some years ie $600k or so up our sleave every year for some years now........quoted in the Australian newspaper we were $750k ahead when we were after Kerrr for the 2009 season and that was whether Hall stayed or not Swans offer Daniel Kerr five-year deal | The Australian


Rough Guess of Net Gain of past salaries vs new salaries for 2010:

BHALL - Mumford, Seaby, Kennedy fairly sure Baz was on approx $750k pa after signing that massive 4 year contract for $3mill ?

MickO - $500k pa = Tag300k, McGlynn200k

Leo - $350k = all 5 newbies = $60k each so that would be Leo's salary minimum

Crouch and Abblett - $300k each = Bradshaw at reported $500k pa?. Both Crouchie and Ablett were in their final year of good contracts signed in 2006

More ?? ie Playfair ?

[Bloody Hell]

I think you've missed it there.

It's more the etheral value of a pick - not a literal monetary value.

I'm going to work it out...

[Bloody Hell]

Draft #1 - 10000
Draft #2 - 9250
Draft #3 - 8750
Draft #4 - 8350
Draft #5 ? 8000
Draft #6 - 7700
Draft #7 - 7450
Draft #8 - 7250
Draft #9 - 7100
Draft #10 ? 7000
Draft #11 ? 6900
Draft #12 - 6800
Draft #13 ? 6700

Draft #18 ? 6200
Draft #19 ? 6100
Draft #20 ? 6000
Draft #21 ? 5800
Draft #22 ? 5600

Draft #29 - 4200
Draft #30 ? 4000
Draft #31 ? 3750

Draft #39 - 1750
Draft #40 ? 1500
Draft #41 ? 1250
Draft #42 ? 1000
Draft #43 ? 1000

Draft #50 ? 1000
Draft #51 ? 1000

Draft #60 ? 1000
Draft #61 ? 1000
Draft #62 ? 1000
Draft #63 ? 1000
Draft #64 ? 1000
End of 4 rounds
Draft #65 ? 500
Draft #66 ? 500

Draft #84 ? 500
Draft #85 ? 500
Etc to infinity.

[Bloody Hell]

Nope...too much work.

Instead I'll say how to do it. Maybe some boffin from AFL House can copy and paste into a document for circulation.

1. Determine the value of draft picks (done!) will act as a baseline for other measurements.

2. Select the top 3-4 or 5 players from each club, depending on the club and depending on how you value the No.1 draft pick. The value of the players identified should not be below 10000.

3. Identify 3 of the different imaginary scoring systems (such as dreamteam) to use to average the performance of existing players. Take the results over the past 3 years and average - call this the playing baseline.

4. Identify the key factors in determining a players trade value. Set each of these to a baseline of 1 and multiply each factor by the playing baseline.

For example - Age - 26=1 ... 18=0.8 ... 33=0.5
Matches Available - 100%= 1.5 ... 50%=0.75
Chance of reoccuring injury = .............
etc

Obviously there would be subjective matter included so a committee would determine values for consistance. With 600 odd players in the system it would be import to develop a formula as each player couldn't be valued individually in a short period of time.

5. Test and continue altering and testing till the numbers seem right!

6. Implement as described previously.

Finished. If clubs want a player they can get them and if a player wants to go somewhere they can get there.