Probability of winning premiership after being 1st on ladder after Round 5

[johnno]

In my mind, we're already premiers...its just a matter of who it is we destroy by 10 goals on that last Saturday of September.

[Big Al]

In my mind, we're already premiers...its just a matter of who it is we destroy by 10 goals on that last Saturday of September.

Ainslie...

[top40]

History is not with the Swans.

Only once (or 25%) they have won the flag after being on top of the ladder in Round 5.

Putting it another way, only on 16.7% when they have been number 1 after Round 5, have they won the flag. They were on top at Round 5 in 1909 (when they won), 1914, 1919, 1934, 1986 and 1998

[Peace]

60% of the time it works EVERY time!

[707]

Let's not get carried away we have only beaten, albeit beaen comfortably, the 16th, 15th, 14th and 12th placed teams so far. We may have beaten St.Kilda if the correct 50m penalty was applied to the axing of Tadgh after he had marked against St.Kilda which would have then been a goal from the goal line.

Whilst I am comfortable with my preseason wagers at odds of $3.00 to make the eight and $17.00 to make the top four, I'd like to see how we are fairing after the next five weeks of tough matches.

Despite our new found depth, we probably don't need any more long term injuries to add to Bird, McGlynn and C Bolton.

I am finding the form of Pyke and McNeill in the Ressies pleasing as they weren't really in preseason calculations for me.

[Matimbo]

I had no idea there are so many maths nerds that are Swans fans.

I also think I've got a really good chance of winning lotto if I buy a ticket once in a while.

[Thunder Shaker]

History says that 24.6% of teams on top of the ladder after round 5 have won the premiership

Keep a lid on it. We haven't beaten any side yet who's within cooee of the top half of the ladder.

[Bas]

In other words, diddly squat statistic.

[Jesse Richards]

Regardless of whom we have beaten so far this year, we are playing better than the past couple of years with a much fitter, younger, more eager side with better depth, in a wide open competition where every team has already lost at least once and every other team looks beatable - by us. So, this might just be a very good year for us.

[msb]

Keep a lid on it. We haven't beaten any side yet who's within cooee of the top half of the ladder.

True, but we can only beat who we play and we SHOULD of beaten the saints. The next 4 weeks will tell, win at least 2 of them and we are gonna be right in the mix IMHO

[top40]

Keep a lid on it. We haven't beaten any side yet who's within cooee of the top half of the ladder.

No!. (With all due respects). Sydney is $17 to win the flag, fair odds.

So, let's celebrate these nice moments, knowing the likelihood that this is not going to be flag year. (I hope I am wrong about my last point).

I am sure that there were fans back in 1934 during the middle of the season, when South head the ladder, who were 'sensibly' saying the same thing::"Keep a lid on it" . Not too many lived to see 24th September 2005.

[mocaholic]

Regardless of whom we have beaten so far this year, we are playing better than the past couple of years with a much fitter, younger, more eager side with better depth, in a wide open competition where every team has already lost at least once and every other team looks beatable - by us. So, this might just be a very good year for us.

Fitter, happier, more productive, comfortable, not drinking too much, regular exercise at the gym (3 days a week), getting on better with your associate employee contemporaries, at ease, eating well (no more microwave dinners and saturated fats), a patient better driver, a safer car (baby smiling in back eat), sleeping well (no bad dreams), no paranoia, careful to all animals (never washing spiders down the plughole), keep in contact with old friends (enjoy a drink now and then), will frequently check credit at (moral) bank (hole in the wall), favors for favors, fond but not in love, charity standing orders, on Sundays ring road supermarket (no killing moths or putting boiling water on the ants), car wash (also on Sundays), no longer afraid of the dark or midday shadows nothing so ridiculously teenage and desperate, nothing so childish - at a better pace, slower and more calculated, no chance of escape, now self-employed, concerned (but powerless), an empowered and informed member of society (pragmatism not idealism), will not cry in public, less chance of illness, tires that grip in the wet (shot of baby strapped in back seat), a good memory, still cries at a good film, still kisses with saliva, no longer empty and frantic like a cat tied to a stick, that's driven into frozen winter @@@@ (the ability to laugh at weakness), calm, fitter, healthier and more productive a pig in a cage on antibiotics.

[swantastic]

lets just see how we r travelin in 4 weeks

[ShockOfHair]

OK you geeks on the nerd patrol, what are the chances of being top after round 5 and NOT making the four?

[swantastic]

OK you geeks on the nerd patrol, what are the chances of being top after round 5 and NOT making the four?

lol...sum 1 will come up with the stats and %'s...prob be either Scott or Des