The Draft - Victims of our own success

[Cpt. Kirk]

Johnston and Jetta look like being duds too. To be fair to Barham he has picked some gems in later rounds of the draft but his record with the earlier picks it terrible.

Calling jetta a dud already is a bit harsh don't you think? Johnston has had a really bad run with injuries and as far as i am concerned once he gets a good run he could become a good player. I think both of those players are better then meredith aswell.

[BSA5]

Johnston and Jetta look like being duds too. To be fair to Barham he has picked some gems in later rounds of the draft but his record with the earlier picks it terrible.

Jetta had a good year last year but has had second year blues. No reason he won't be better next year.

As for Johnston, his talent is unquestionable, and he has been signed for another 2 years for a reason. He's just had some very bad luck with injuries. Anybody that watches the reserves will confirm that if he gets some full preseasons under his belt and strings some games together, he'll be a success. It's just an unfortunately big "if".

[Cardinal]

Cyril is the one we all regret letting go in hindsight.

Personally I don't think we can afford to bottom out. have a look at the threads going round at the moment and we are still in the 8: sack the coach, how big will the crowd be, no leadership, and dump half the players.

[Go Swannies]

we should have gone after Andrew Walker last year when he wanbted out....
I hope we go after Taylor Walker this year..

I saw enough Swans who were walkers yesterday. I want some who will run.

[SimonH]

Ernie - the way I would look at it is that Collingwood and Geelong have had fewer picks over that period due to their success in that same time (such as we have), however Collingwood used the time in between their 02/03 grand finals and their 09/10 climb to use the draft. Geelong did the same.

Teams with greater success have fewer picks. Of course. But otherwise, this is a classic example of cherry-picking and arguing by hindsight, sadly. There wasn't a pre-existing category of '7 years between GFs; how do you want to use them?' Collingwood made themselves a contender because they marshalled all of the resources at their disposal (those resources not including a glut of top 3 draft picks) and developed a middlingly-talented list into a sensationally disciplined and well-balanced team. All teams 'use the draft' to a lesser or greater extent. The team who used it most in the 2003-2009 period was surely Richmond.

Anyone who thinks that Collingwood would cease to be a top 2 side, if you took out Thomas, Pendlebury and Didak (indeed, they have done without Didak for much of the year) is living in fantasy land.

Geelong did exactly the opposite of draft-mining. Not one single top 6 pick in the list in this thread. Not one. They conducted a far-reaching inquiry into perceived failure at the club, in 2006?a year in which they barely missed the finals.

Using what we know of the history of the last 15 years to inform our behaviour going forward, there is absolutely no evidence for the proposition that Sydney will be a better team with a better chance of winning the flag in 2015, if we go 2-20 and finish last next year, rather than doing 'the usual' and finishing 5th to 8th.

[Triple B]

Johnston and Jetta look like being duds too.....

Given you think Bird is useless and a disgrace to the #14 and Spanger is the worst player to play senior level AFL, I doubt LJ and Jets will be too worried about your uninformed opinion....

[ScottH]

Carlton also lost 1 or 2 top 10 draft picks due to the salary cap breach. They would've had Goddard in their team now, so the saints benefitted big time from their @@@@ up.

[sharp9]

Goddard and Wells were the two Carlton were going to take.
From the two games I have seen I reckon that LJ will be a very, very good player....maybe not a superstar but in the company of Dawes, Lynch, etc....very good second KPF. Wonderful kick, good frame.

[Triple B]

Carlton also lost 1 or 2 top 10 draft picks due to the salary cap breach. They would've had Goddard in their team now, so the saints benefitted big time from their @@@@ up.

Saints benefitted for sure, but so did Carlton. It made them even more crap and landed them priority picks.

AFL stuffed that up IMO, if they decided in their wisdom that the punishment fit the crime, they should have had enough foresight to also declare Carlton would not be eligible for the inevitable priority picks that would come Carltons way as a direct result of that very same punishment.

It had the effect of slowing down Carltons rise back up by a year or two, but when it happened, they are now extra rich in top 1, 2 and 3 picks thx to the 'punishment'...

[sharp9]

Any mention of Collingwood and Geelong and their great drafting against the odds needs to include T. Cloke, N. Davis, J. Cloke, C. Cloke, H. Shaw, R. Shaw, B. Shaw, J. Barham - M. Scarlett, M. Blake, T. Callan, N. Ablett, A. Donohue, T. Hawkins and G. Ablett under the "here you go have a giant present for nothing" fruit of the loin basket. Of course we did get Donkey Doyle - who could have been something. :-) And the Smooch who is a premiership player. And Benny Mathews and Leo were zone selections way back when.

[Melbournehammer]

Any mention of Collingwood and Geelong and their great drafting against the odds needs to include T. Cloke, N. Davis, J. Cloke, C. Cloke, H. Shaw, R. Shaw, B. Shaw, J. Barham - M. Scarlett, M. Blake, T. Callan, N. Ablett, A. Donohue, T. Hawkins and G. Ablett under the "here you go have a giant present for nothing" fruit of the loin basket. Of course we did get Donkey Doyle - who could have been something. :-) And the Smooch who is a premiership player. And Benny Mathews and Leo were zone selections way back when.

and sean dempster...

[wolftone57]

A few of the interesting things to come from these stats is that;
Collingwood and Geelong are both also down the bottom end of number of picks...they're going OK at the minute.
Where as Richmond and Melbourne have had plenty of picks.....they're not going OK and appear years away from being contenders.
So I suppose it's who you pick not how many, how they fit your club and your playing style, who's already on your list etc etc...
So it's all a bit murky unless you hit the jackpot like Collingwood did with picks 2 and 5.

Having said that, I think the mantra that the Swans can't afford to bottom out is rubbish....Just look at our dwindling attendances, and read these boards.
Finishing in and around the 8 year after year, with no relative progress, excites very few...Except perhaps coaches who keep their jobs.
In Sydney, and I suspect most other markets,success is not measured by just making the finals...It's about being a contender.... that's what gets people interested and excited, and ultimately bums on seats and high memberships.
There is nothing better than watching your team claw their way from oblivion to become a contender......Ala 1995 onwards, 2003 onwards. That's how you catch the imagination of supporters, Sydney included.

Collingwood had 10 top 20 draft picks but ended up with 6 top 10 & that is pretty good as well as father/son picks in Cloke & Shaw. They also traded with us for Darren Jolly who has been sensational for them as he was for us. Their footy department know their stuff. I agree that we can't just keep making the eight year after year and not challenging for the big one. Sydney especially likes winners and if the club bottomed out a few years sure the following would drop off but in the resurgence the crowds would be mind boggling as we have seen in the late '90's and 2003 onward. In Sydney if you are middle ground you are seen as mediocre and not rth following as you are not a serious contender.

I like what you said about only keeping coaches employed because I think it is the coaches who have created the myth that it would be disastrous for us to bottom out. This happened from Eade onward, there was this mantra that Sydney had to always be successfu. But the thing they forgot is that the only success Sydneysiders recognise is Premierships.

[wolftone57]

Jeez the Saints, Pies and Bombers did really well. Most of the others I don't think have had better than a 50% strike rate.

If you also look at who the Pies got from other clubs that were top 10ers then they did extremely well. they picked up Luke Ball and I'd like to know what area of the draft Jolly, Krackouer & Dick originally were taken. I think they did very well with Father/Son. Was Tarrent a F/S pick because the Tarrents have a long tradition at the Pise and are rabid Pie supporters. I worked with what I think was his grandmother and 2 of her sons played for the Pies although only one played A Grade in the early '80's I think (memory not that good)

[Triple B]

Jolly came off the rookie list at Melbourne.

[alison.z]

In regards to Cyril Rioli - anyone who has read 'The Draft' by Emma Quayle would probably agree that there would be some serious doubts about Rioli's ability to settle in Sydney. Was extremely homesick in Melbourne even with some family around so moving to Sydney with no support network wouldn't have benefited him at all and I'm not sure he would be anywhere near the player he is now or even still at the Swans. Don't think it was a mistake to overlook him as much as I would love to have him in the team.

In reality I think we've overachieved so far with the youth coming through but give it a few years with top draft picks Rohan, Johnston and Jetta cementing a spot in the team and mid range picks Hannebery, Parker and Reid improving ... We could yet be lauding our recruiters!