Swans underrated again!

[R-1]

It's a good system imo if there was a way to rank teams fairly. However since it rewards high disposal teams whilst punishing low disposal teams, and we are certainly in the latter category. Unless we change gameplan we will never have many "stars".

It actually doesn't - the points are normalised to 3300 for each game and weighted to favour important periods and possession. The reason not many Swans are in the top 10% of Champion's players is more a function of evenness and variable roles. Someone like Jude Bolton could rack up enormous scores some weeks but have a much quieter game other weeks because he's performing a different role.

[Captain]

Ahh I too read it incorrectly!

[Nico]

To use the word "elite" in any context should only relate to the very cream of the competition. To regard the following as elite is laughable:

Ginasirucusa - Bulldogs supporters would laugh at his inclusion
Newman and Houli - good average footballers
Green and Frawley - give me strength
Roughhead (when did he last play and will he play this season?) Birchall - good footballer
Bock - good fullback
Harry Taylor - Supercoach followers would question his poor season in the comp.
Broughton - who are they kidding, Barlow on the strength of one season. Will he ever be as good
Ben Reid - good quality footballer but not in the same class as the other Collingwood players mentioned
Waite - one of the great disappointments and overrated players going around.
Scotland is a good accumulator and team player.

[Auntie.Gerald]

its funny

Carlton is the perfect example of highly rated players......... no.1 picks galore and still no GF lately



Kruezer no.1
Judd no.3
Murphy no.1
Walker no.1
Bryce Gibbs no.1
Kane Lucas no.12
Chris Yarran no.6

[R-1]

To use the word "elite" in any context should only relate to the very cream of the competition. To regard the following as elite is laughable:

Ginasirucusa - Bulldogs supporters would laugh at his inclusion
Newman and Houli - good average footballers
Green and Frawley - give me strength
Roughhead (when did he last play and will he play this season?) Birchall - good footballer
Bock - good fullback
Harry Taylor - Supercoach followers would question his poor season in the comp.
Broughton - who are they kidding, Barlow on the strength of one season. Will he ever be as good
Ben Reid - good quality footballer but not in the same class as the other Collingwood players mentioned
Waite - one of the great disappointments and overrated players going around.
Scotland is a good accumulator and team player.

The thing is, someone's gotta get the points on every team. The method being used here - top ten percent of pointscorers, more or less means every team, even Gold Coast, gets a couple of score-getters in the top bracket. Usually midfielders or halfbacks, it must be said. nd the Champion method really heavily rewards efficiency and effectiveness in ball use (possibly hurts some of our other top players).

The fact that Essendon only had one named is kind of baffling. I know they have a crap midfield, but even then they must spread it around very evenly and misuse the footy a lot to avoid having anyone other than Jobe in the top 10%. And Port, well...

[Mr Magoo]

As that the story bases the choices on stats over the last two years , all this really tells us is that in the last two years these are the teams that had elite players and SHOULD have therefore dominated and that based on stats the swans overperformed compared to many other clubs in that period. It is in no way a measure of how they will perform over the next season as it doesnt take into account the decline of players as they age or the rise of the players as they get more game time and they develop.

[707]

How does that saying go? "Lies, damned lies and statistics"

I haven't read the Champion Data blurb in detail but just looking at the Hun story I wouldn't complain too much about the names that show as "Elite".

I'm not sure we have many other claimants to being top 10% in their field, although Kennedy must be close one would think.

Some of the other teams have a few surprises as highlighted by others.

It probably shows what we all know - that the Swans are a very even team that win games when they ALL have a red hot go. Losses in 2011 highlight his fact, Tankers, Adelaide Cows, Wretchmond, Heave ho Freo, although the latter was lost by the influence of Freo's smallest player :-) How did we not beat those teams?

[Nico]

The thing is, someone's gotta get the points on every team. The method being used here - top ten percent of pointscorers, more or less means every team, even Gold Coast, gets a couple of score-getters in the top bracket. Usually midfielders or halfbacks, it must be said. nd the Champion method really heavily rewards efficiency and effectiveness in ball use (possibly hurts some of our other top players).

The fact that Essendon only had one named is kind of baffling. I know they have a crap midfield, but even then they must spread it around very evenly and misuse the footy a lot to avoid having anyone other than Jobe in the top 10%. And Port, well...

Yeh, but to use the word "elite" is laying it on a bit thick. What about top bracket or top accumulators or the like.

[johnno]

I do think Hawthorn will be the team to beat next year, you can forget Collingwood and Geelong. And as much as it hurts me to say this, cause I hate them so much, Carlton are going to be tough to beat too.

[goswannie14]

I do think Hawthorn will be the team to beat next year, you can forget Collingwood and Geelong. And as much as it hurts me to say this, cause I hate them so much, Carlton are going to be tough to beat too.

You write off Geelong at your peril. They were meant to be on the downward spiral this year and we all know what happened there.

[dimelb]

You write off Geelong at your peril. They were meant to be on the downward spiral this year and we all know what happened there.

Agree - especially if Hawkins has finally worked out what to do.

[johnno]

You write off Geelong at your peril. They were meant to be on the downward spiral this year and we all know what happened there.

I'm actually going to put $20 on them at the start of the year to miss the 8 in 2012.

[liz]

I'm actually going to put $20 on them at the start of the year to miss the 8 in 2012.

That's a gutsy call.

I do think they will miss Ottens and, in particular, Ling more than many Cats fans are hoping / expecting. Ling has been the best tagger for several seasons now and also got plenty of the ball himself and kicked goals. He was by far their best player against us at the Cattery this year, keeping JPK relatively quiet and almost keeping the Cats in it with his goals.

I therefore think they may struggle a bit more with the better teams next year, having lost the ability to shut down the most dangerous midfielder. However, they still have a huge spread of class right across the team and especially in the midfield. Unless they have a particularly bad injury run, I think they will beat most teams outside the top handful. That will be enough to see them in the top 8 and probably the top 4.

[Xie Shan]

In the past decade or so, when the Swans have underrated before the start of the season we've generally gone on to have a good year (remember 2003, when just about everyone had us as likely wooden spooners), so hoping this is a good sign.

To the poster who reckons the Cats will miss the 8: brave, very brave. I agree with Liz that they'll miss Ling a bit more than they think, but I wouldn't have the guts to tip a team like the Cats to slide. I do think Carlton and Hawthorn will be the teams to beat though (as much as it pains me to say it).

[707]

I've already had a sizable wager on Hawthorn @ $6.50 which I reckon is over the odds. They had a horror run with injuries in 2011 and should have made the GF.

Think Geelong, Collingwood and Caarton will be close again.

I'd also like to think that we will be competitive against these sides as well.