Probability of winning the finals

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  • iigrover
    Warming the Bench
    • Sep 2005
    • 245

    Probability of winning the finals

    Based on today's betting odds here's the probability of winning the respective finals:

    Swans vs Collingwood
    Swans - 58.5%
    Collingwood - 41.5%

    Hawks vs Crows
    Hawks - 81.9%
    Crows - 18.1%

    Grand Final
    Hawks - 58.0%
    Adelaide - 18.9%
    Collingwood - 15.0%
    Crows - 8.1%
  • Cheer Squad
    Sydney Swans
    • Apr 2007
    • 1948

    #2
    I think you mean Swans have 18.9% chance of winning the GF...

    Comment

    • Triple B
      Formerly 'BBB'
      • Feb 2003
      • 6999

      #3
      Originally posted by iigrover
      Grand Final
      Hawks - 58.0%
      Adelaide - 18.9%
      Collingwood - 15.0%
      Crows - 8.1%
      Written off again ... I like it
      Driver of the Dan Hannebery bandwagon....all aboard. 4th April 09

      Comment

      • mcs
        Travelling Swannie!!
        • Jul 2007
        • 8177

        #4
        All I know about betting is that I'm going to have something on both the swans and Collingwood to win at under 39.5 points. It'll either add to the celebrations if we win, or at least give some monetary offset to the disappointment if we lose. I can't see either team winning by more than 6 1/2 goals however, so I think 39.5 or under is a safe option.
        "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

        Comment

        • iigrover
          Warming the Bench
          • Sep 2005
          • 245

          #5
          Originally posted by Cheer Squad
          I think you mean Swans have 18.9% chance of winning the GF...
          Oops!

          Yes - Swans are 18.9% chance.

          Comment

          • Doctor
            Bay 29
            • Sep 2003
            • 2757

            #6
            That probability will clearly go up if we win this game. Part of the reason our odds are lower is that our opposition is expected to be a lot stronger than Adelaide, therefore our chances of making the GF are lower than Hawthorn's so our current odds of winning it are similarly lower.
            Today's a draft of your epitaph

            Comment

            • iigrover
              Warming the Bench
              • Sep 2005
              • 245

              #7
              Originally posted by Doctor
              That probability will clearly go up if we win this game.
              That's correct. Based on the above figures, the betting agents are saying that assuming we win this Friday and not knowing the outcome of Saturday's match, the probability of us winning the GF is 32%. It wil then change again, after the outcome of Saturday's match.

              Feeling very geeky right now.

              Comment

              • johnno
                On the Rookie List
                • Apr 2008
                • 1102

                #8
                Originally posted by mcs
                All I know about betting is that I'm going to have something on both the swans and Collingwood to win at under 39.5 points. It'll either add to the celebrations if we win, or at least give some monetary offset to the disappointment if we lose. I can't see either team winning by more than 6 1/2 goals however, so I think 39.5 or under is a safe option.
                I'm sticking $10 on swans by over 60+ points. Should get goods odds I think.

                Comment

                • Hazcam
                  On the Rookie List
                  • Jun 2007
                  • 324

                  #9
                  Originally posted by johnno
                  I'm sticking $10 on swans by over 60+ points. Should get goods odds I think.
                  Amd if that happens johnno I'll payout that amount too!

                  Would be an emphatic way to end the hoodoo

                  Comment

                  • Woodie
                    On the Rookie List
                    • Aug 2012
                    • 86

                    #10
                    Odds mean nothing, if you want it bad enough.

                    How do they work them out anyway, final odds are only a reflection on other peoples betting (where the money lies).

                    Lets just hope that center link is inundated on Monday with pies supporters saying they got no money

                    Go Bloods
                    RED & WHITE - IT'S IN THE BLOOD

                    Comment

                    • johnno
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Apr 2008
                      • 1102

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Hazcam
                      Amd if that happens johnno I'll payout that amount too!

                      Would be an emphatic way to end the hoodoo
                      Bookmarking it!!!

                      Comment

                      • desredandwhite
                        Click!
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 2498

                        #12
                        It's not the probability of winning. It is the bookmakers' educated guess at what will make them the most money, based on popular opinion as to who's going to win.

                        Popular opinion has not always been correct.

                        177th Senior AFL Match - Round 4, 2009 - Sydney vs Carlton, SCG. This is obviously out of date. I suppose I'll update it once I could be bothered sitting down with the fixture and working it out....
                        Des' Weblog

                        Comment

                        • Swansinger
                          Senior Player
                          • Mar 2003
                          • 1099

                          #13
                          I've just put $80 on the head to head.Not quite enough to cry about losing , though just enough to get a nice return.

                          Comment

                          • Swansongster
                            Senior Player
                            • Sep 2008
                            • 1264

                            #14
                            Originally posted by johnno
                            I'm sticking $10 on swans by over 60+ points. Should get goods odds I think.
                            I'll go for $100 on Jude to get the first goal.

                            Comment

                            • Swansinger
                              Senior Player
                              • Mar 2003
                              • 1099

                              #15
                              Sydney by 1 point pays $24.
                              Stick on a grand and if that comes off , you could get a good cardiac surgeon - you might need it .

                              Comment

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