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It's not the probability of winning. It is the bookmakers' educated guess at what will make them the most money, based on popular opinion as to who's going to win.
Popular opinion has not always been correct.
Actually it has a lot to do with the amount of money on each team. Hawks were flag favourites even when they were outside the eight due to the amount that had been put on them preseason. Bookies have to balance their books.
Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.
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