Changes for Round 9 vs. Collingwood

[On-Baller]

In-Mitchell [to be sub],Mattner,White [Armstrong must also be a chance given pies small forward line so knowing we are hesitant to play Mitchell id say armstrong instead of him but i hope not.]

Out-Mummy,Walsh,Mcglynn

Can see us getting a mauling this friday night,i know Reid is a forward but id like to see him start down back for a short period and if not Reid then Goodes who played some of his best footy imo at CHB.Is it just me or does Macca only seem to really shine against the lower teams? I hope he can continue some of that early form as he really set the standard for us.Would love to see Rampe get a gig further up field,for such an inexperienced guy he has been superb and would like to see him free'd up a bit when possible,maybe when Rhyce gets back.

Just getting back too Goodes i know he helps our structure but he really isnt having much impact on games,he has improved but im wondering whether its time for Adam too bite the bullet and put his hand up to play that relief ruck role again.I know the reasoning before was he was too important to miss games from knee injuries sustained in the ruck but these days his importance is nowhere near as much and if we were too lose him it would make less impact than if we were to lose Pyke.Just thinking outside the box but Goodes as relief ruck and basically an extra onballer in the next 4-5 weeks while we wait for Tippett and get Mummy right could be the difference between making top 4 or not.

Goodes is a champion and i love him no matter what he does but given Jessie's poor ruck work and Mummys weird form reversal could a 4 week stint as backup ruckmen for Goodes be the only viable option to get 8 points out of our next 3 games.

[Wazza]

IMHO The issue is no Tippett once Tip comes in Reid will find a lot more freedom in the FWD 50. I would like to see Pyke play more at FF I think we are 1 tall short either Tommy or Jesse comes in to rotate with Pyke / Mummy ruck FF, one of them needs to be at FF. The problem with Morton at FF he doesn't take a key defender, he gets the guy who can play small /tall so Reid ends up with all the defensive attention. I think throwing in Jetta as a small fwd as others mentioned would work well with a taller setup i.e. Reid + Ruck.

[swanwolf]

Coaches are reluctant to change a winning team but what if it's a draw? Roll up, roll up, try your boot in Sydney's forward line! Longmire is rummaging through forwards like a drawer of old batteries until he finds one that works. Out: Playfair In: O'Loughlin

This week, the role of Tippett will be played by... Jesse White - in for Walsh. White only gets a gig now as a ruck replacement but his experience should make for a more effective decoy forward than Walsh. Brave heart, Tommy.

Everitt, solid in defence, stays in and Mattner's gyppy hip bumps out Rampe to the reserves because Collingwon't would maul Mufasa much like the Hawks did. Bird remains sub as he gets tired easily of late.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I'd keep Rampe over Everitt. Everett seems to keep his spot because of what he is capable of producing, not actually because of what he consistently produces, which is average footy with little to no effect on the game.

[liz]

I think throwing in Jetta as a small fwd as others mentioned would work well with a taller setup i.e. Reid + Ruck.

I don't get this notion of stationing Jetta in the forward line as a small forward. At the moment, Jetta is a fairly limited footballer - he might develop more tricks as he gets more experienced but essentially he has just two at the moment. His importance to the team stems from just how good he is at those two tricks, and how valuable they are when he executes them well.

Firstly he can run really really fast, while carrying and (sometimes) bouncing the ball. He mostly runs in straight lines - ie not ducking and weaving through traffic (one trick I hope he develops because he has shown odd glimpses). But the fact that his best work is in a straight line means he needs space, and lots of it.

His second major trick is that he can kick the ball really really well. His long, effortless kicks for goal are a delight to watch and already fill a highlights tape after just a year or two playing at the very top level. His radar isn't always on, but it's on often enough to make it a very valuable weapon. His kicks to a target in the forward line are almost as valuable, when he choose to do that, rather than go for the glory himself. When he manages to blinker himself from the kick'n'hope malaise that sometimes infects the whole team, he can spot and hit a target 50m away on an angle with a sizzle that few others would contemplate, let alone execute.

What Jetta doesn't do particularly well - yet - is any of the things that you need in an effective small forward. The likes of Milne, le Cras, Thomas, Betts are all sensational contested marks. They read the ball through the air, they position their bodies to protect the drop zone, and they can leap in the air when they need to. The number of even semi-contested marks Jetta has taken during his Swans career thus far is fewer than Pyke probably takes while making breakfast of a morning.

I also can't recall him kicking a proper crumbing goal, unless you count those where he's front and square of a contest 60m out from goal and just bangs the ball through of one step. He doesn't duck and weave, work the angles and dribble them through along the ground like a Betts or Milne can do with their eyes shut.

And while his pressure work and tackling are definitely getting better, he doesn't move from one contest to the next, scraping and pressurisng like an Alwyn Davey or Jeff Garlett or Allen Christensen or our own Benny McGlynn.

While Jetts is a long way from the scintillating form of 2012, I can't see why you would move him from a role where he might stand a chance of using his greatest assets to the benefit of the team, even if it is just a couple of times a game, to one where he possesses none of the major skills that are required to be dangerous.

[mcs]

Mattner a chance to play this week, and Shaw is running and returning to full training next week. Good news. If we could get over the line in 1 or 2 of the next 3 matches, we're looking much better after the bye with LRT and Tippett. Morton's forward pressure is great these days, so I think he will be an important player as well. If Mattner can pull up well on Friday then I won't feel as though the gaping hole in our backline is so bad. Just gotta dig deep to pull out a couple of wins as underdogs, classic Swans-style. I think with a couple of personnel issues addressed, it's more about maintaining concentration than anything else.

We need to win at very least 2 of them - 1 will not cut it if we want to make top 4 and really challenge for the flag (if we miss top 4, then I don't think we can win the flag.)

Last year we made the top four with 16 wins (15 1/2 would also have made it). Assuming 15 1/2 would get us again, that means we need a minimum of 10 wins from our remaining 14 games, if not 11.

1 Win before the bye leaves us needing 9 wins, 2 wins 8 and 3 wins 7.

Now consider the 2nd half of the year draw:
Port - much improved on last year, but we have a good record against them.
Carlton - Malthouse has been our nemesis for a long time at Collingwood - will it continue at Carlton.
Melbourne - easy win
GWS - Easy win
West Coast - we have been excellent over there in recent seasons, but it won't be easy.
Richmond - have a more than decent record against us
Western Bulldogs - Win
Collingwood - Toughy
St Kilda - Win
Geelong - Very tough
Hawthorn - at home, but very tough.

I have 4 'should wins' only in that list for the second half of the season. Four very tough (Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, West Coast) and three potential banana skins (Port, Carlton, Richmond). I'd expect we will get a minimum of 7 wins overall in that lot. I wouldn't want to need more than 8 though to make top 4.

In short, if we only win 1 of the next three, I think we are in deep trouble in terms of making the 4.

[Ludwig]

I don't get this notion of stationing Jetta in the forward line as a small forward. At the moment, Jetta is a fairly limited footballer - he might develop more tricks as he gets more experienced but essentially he has just two at the moment. His importance to the team stems from just how good he is at those two tricks, and how valuable they are when he executes them well.

Firstly he can run really really fast, while carrying and (sometimes) bouncing the ball. He mostly runs in straight lines - ie not ducking and weaving through traffic (one trick I hope he develops because he has shown odd glimpses). But the fact that his best work is in a straight line means he needs space, and lots of it.

His second major trick is that he can kick the ball really really well. His long, effortless kicks for goal are a delight to watch and already fill a highlights tape after just a year or two playing at the very top level. His radar isn't always on, but it's on often enough to make it a very valuable weapon. His kicks to a target in the forward line are almost as valuable, when he choose to do that, rather than go for the glory himself. When he manages to blinker himself from the kick'n'hope malaise that sometimes infects the whole team, he can spot and hit a target 50m away on an angle with a sizzle that few others would contemplate, let alone execute.

What Jetta doesn't do particularly well - yet - is any of the things that you need in an effective small forward. The likes of Milne, le Cras, Thomas, Betts are all sensational contested marks. They read the ball through the air, they position their bodies to protect the drop zone, and they can leap in the air when they need to. The number of even semi-contested marks Jetta has taken during his Swans career thus far is fewer than Pyke probably takes while making breakfast of a morning.

I also can't recall him kicking a proper crumbing goal, unless you count those where he's front and square of a contest 60m out from goal and just bangs the ball through of one step. He doesn't duck and weave, work the angles and dribble them through along the ground like a Betts or Milne can do with their eyes shut.

And while his pressure work and tackling are definitely getting better, he doesn't move from one contest to the next, scraping and pressurisng like an Alwyn Davey or Jeff Garlett or Allen Christensen or our own Benny McGlynn.

While Jetts is a long way from the scintillating form of 2012, I can't see why you would move him from a role where he might stand a chance of using his greatest assets to the benefit of the team, even if it is just a couple of times a game, to one where he possesses none of the major skills that are required to be dangerous.

I agree with your analysis about Jetta's talents and shortcomings, but believe this is why he would be more effective as a forward. He is a burst player and a good long and accurate kick. No one can stay with him on the lead. So if you get him into space anywhere in the forward half of the ground, he is a good chance of kicking a goal or hitting a target inside 50 with a kick.

He is clearly not getting the space from the midfield that he got last year. I don't see the point in keeping him hanging around the congestion hoping for some space to open up. He needs to get one-on-one situations and create his own space from that.

[liz]

I agree with your analysis about Jetta's talents and shortcomings, but believe this is why he would be more effective as a forward. He is a burst player and a good long and accurate kick. No one can stay with him on the lead. So if you get him into space anywhere in the forward half of the ground, he is a good chance of kicking a goal or hitting a target inside 50 with a kick.

He is clearly not getting the space from the midfield that he got last year. I don't see the point in keeping him hanging around the congestion hoping for some space to open up. He needs to get one-on-one situations and create his own space from that.

But there's less space in the forward line than anywhere else on the ground, unless the team is able to get the ball down there really quickly. And if Jetta is already stationed down there, it robs the team of one of the most likely to be able to get it down there quickly.

[barry]

We need to win at very least 2 of them - 1 will not cut it if we want to make top 4 and really challenge for the flag (if we miss top 4, then I don't think we can win the flag.)

Last year we made the top four with 16 wins (15 1/2 would also have made it). Assuming 15 1/2 would get us again, that means we need a minimum of 10 wins from our remaining 14 games, if not 11.

1 Win before the bye leaves us needing 9 wins, 2 wins 8 and 3 wins 7.

Now consider the 2nd half of the year draw:
Port - much improved on last year, but we have a good record against them.
Carlton - Malthouse has been our nemesis for a long time at Collingwood - will it continue at Carlton.
Melbourne - easy win
GWS - Easy win
West Coast - we have been excellent over there in recent seasons, but it won't be easy.
Richmond - have a more than decent record against us
Western Bulldogs - Win
Collingwood - Toughy
St Kilda - Win
Geelong - Very tough
Hawthorn - at home, but very tough.

I have 4 'should wins' only in that list for the second half of the season. Four very tough (Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, West Coast) and three potential banana skins (Port, Carlton, Richmond). I'd expect we will get a minimum of 7 wins overall in that lot. I wouldn't want to need more than 8 though to make top 4.

In short, if we only win 1 of the next three, I think we are in deep trouble in terms of making the 4.

I wouldnr worry. Once tippet returns we wont lose another game.
Its actually a question of how many games clear on top we are.

[Ludwig]

But there's less space in the forward line than anywhere else on the ground, unless the team is able to get the ball down there really quickly. And if Jetta is already stationed down there, it robs the team of one of the most likely to be able to get it down there quickly.

I'm saying we should play him like a Mitch Morton, starting in the forward 50 and leading into space around the 50 metre arc and up through the centre so that he can get the ball one kick away from an inside 50 target.

[liz]

I'm saying we should play him like a Mitch Morton, starting in the forward 50 and leading into space around the 50 metre arc and up through the centre so that he can get the ball one kick away from an inside 50 target.

But we score a tiny proportion of our goals that way, certainly under Longmire. Most of our scoring shots come either via the "slingshot", which usually requires the team to find Jetta in space (with Jack an occasional substitute) or via mindless bombs forward to no-one in particular, from which point the team tries to create stoppages in a crowded forward line and score from there (something the team is fortunately rather good at). Where we do score from a mark inside 50, it is generally because the pressure on the team trying to carry the ball outside their defensive 50 is good enough to create a turnover, and a quick kick back inside the 50m manages to find a player on a lead - but still usually in a lot of congestion. In such a scenario, Jetta is likely to be in or around the 50m anyway, because pretty much the whole team except Ted and Reg are up there. Starting Jetta in the forward 50m, ostensibly as a small forward, isn't going to make him more likely to be there.

[Ludwig]

But we score a tiny proportion of our goals that way, certainly under Longmire. Most of our scoring shots come either via the "slingshot", which usually requires the team to find Jetta in space (with Jack an occasional substitute) or via mindless bombs forward to no-one in particular, from which point the team tries to create stoppages in a crowded forward line and score from there (something the team is fortunately rather good at). Where we do score from a mark inside 50, it is generally because the pressure on the team trying to carry the ball outside their defensive 50 is good enough to create a turnover, and a quick kick back inside the 50m manages to find a player on a lead - but still usually in a lot of congestion. In such a scenario, Jetta is likely to be in or around the 50m anyway, because pretty much the whole team except Ted and Reg are up there. Starting Jetta in the forward 50m, ostensibly as a small forward, isn't going to make him more likely to be there.

This is my point, Liz. The slingshot isn't working all that well this year. Opposition are on to it. And we are not scoring much from hitting targets around to arc. By putting Jetta into the mix it adds a new dynamic to our forward line. I think having Jetta with ball in hand between 40 and 70 out from goal would add an important dimension to our attack. We are looking for ways to get Jetta more involved, so why not this?

[liz]

This is my point, Liz. The slingshot isn't working all that well this year. Opposition are on to it. And we are not scoring much from hitting targets around to arc. By putting Jetta into the mix it adds a new dynamic to our forward line. I think having Jetta with ball in hand between 40 and 70 out from goal would add an important dimension to our attack. We are looking for ways to get Jetta more involved, so why not this?

Because he doesn't have any of the attributes likely to make him much use in such a role, and because it's a role that doesn't particularly suit the way the team plays. I think a more viable solution is that Jetta needs to run a bit harder than he has been, even if a lot of the time it is unrewarded running. I think he plays in a fairly stationary manner until he actually has the ball in his hand. He needs to run a bit more, moving his opponent around. At very worst, it would keep the opponent moving, preferably away from congestion, because no team in their right mind is going to let Jetta stand on his own in space.

Even if he doesn't receive the ball in space that he can run forward of, he's such a good kick that he can still be damaging delivering the ball forward via a kick rather than by carrying it.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I'd keep Rampe over Everitt. Everett seems to keep his spot because of what he is capable of producing, not actually because of what he consistently produces, which is average footy with little to no effect on the game.

You need to watch the Fremantle game again.

[Ludwig]

Because he doesn't have any of the attributes likely to make him much use in such a role, and because it's a role that doesn't particularly suit the way the team plays. I think a more viable solution is that Jetta needs to run a bit harder than he has been, even if a lot of the time it is unrewarded running. I think he plays in a fairly stationary manner until he actually has the ball in his hand. He needs to run a bit more, moving his opponent around. At very worst, it would keep the opponent moving, preferably away from congestion, because no team in their right mind is going to let Jetta stand on his own in space.

Even if he doesn't receive the ball in space that he can run forward of, he's such a good kick that he can still be damaging delivering the ball forward via a kick rather than by carrying it.

You seem to be making a case for a change in roles. I agree, he is too stationary, just hanging off packs waiting for something to develop. As a forward, he could use his speed to put some distance between himself and his opponent in a situation where he is likely to get rewarded with a mark or other possession of the ball. His role would be more structured and he will be forced to move to the ball in particular situations. We both agree that if you can get him the ball in a dangerous position, he can be very damaging with his good kicking. To me, it seems like a player with top level straight line burst speed would make a good lead up marking target.