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Round 18 - Hawthorn Vs Sydney Swans
CONDITIONS
Minor periods of rain. Night game.
Summary: Dry conditions will offer a small advantage to Swans. Probably negligible in terms of impact.
LIKELY INS AND OUTS
Sydney Swans
In: Hannebery, Shaw
Out: Laidler, Towers
Hawthorn
Ins: Lake, Rioli (?), Hale, Spangher, Duryea, Sewell
Outs: Lewis (?), McEvoy, Woodward, Litherland, Ceglar
Summary: Some big inclusions for the Hawks, but an unsettled line-up with lots of changes possible. If Rioli or Sewell come in it will be a big gamble.
MAJOR POINTS
Rampe destroyed Gunston... and not just physically one-on-one. It was clear that Rampe got inside Gunston?s head. Rampe pulled off a goal saving tackle (probably one of the best defensive efforts of the season) and Gunston?s frustration was evident, particularly when he gave away a 50m-penalty shortly thereafter.
Teddy really needs help... his form in recent weeks against key forwards has been badly down, particularly on the lead. Riewoldt, Pav and Petrie have managed to easily outposition him goalside. Roughhead beat Ted on the lead several times and even looked better when the ball hit the deck. If Ted starts on Roughhead this weekend and gets outmanoeuvered we will have to look to Reid to come back as a loose man in defence.
Goodes can be a game changer... he kicked 2.1 within five minutes in the third and could have easily finished with five goals, especially if he?d been paid the clear mark he clunked in the goal square late in the fourth.
So can Breust... he really kick-started their comeback and scored or set up some critical goals. His ?don?t argue? has to be one of the best in the comp and it was the first time all season that Smith looked like he was out of his comfort zone. Players need to be aware that he will consistently break tackles and be prepared to back up their teammates.
?Engine room down?... Four Hawks (Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, Shiels) ended as the game's top four possession winners and our midfield was badly beaten for extended patches in the third and fourth quarter. Worse still, our coaches were slow to respond to this and there was never an attempt to put a hard tag on these players - mostly because Benny was busy running amok in their forward 50. Shiels, in contrast, really shut down Kennedy for critical parts of the contest. Hannebery is a big inclusion in this regard and will hopefully even things up in the middle. Keiran Jack is also in much better form and his rib issue seems to have settled down.
Buddy?s inaccuracy is somewhat overstated... he kicked 3.5, but some of his set shots were deep in the pocket and would have taken a miracle to kick. He probably only missed one, at most two, that he should have gotten. Tippett?s inaccuracy, on the other hand, was a big problem. He missed two shots from the 35-45m region that he really should have kicked. Hawthorn?s accuracy for similar set shots was scarily good and it was probably the difference in the end.
Our run off half-back was down... we really had trouble clearing out of our half of the ground for extended periods. Mal played poorly with only 17 possessions and Shaw was a big omission for us.
Rohan played quite well, Parker not so much... Despite his low possession count, Rohan played one of his best games of the season. He spoiled well, broke the lines, took a couple of crucial grabs in the defensive 50. Parker was below his best - but only because we?ve come to expect so much from him. He tried hard, as he always does, and impacted the contest but had difficulty emerging from the packs with the ball. I?d be interested to know how much Parker and Hannebery link up in the middle because that might have been the difference.
Lake is a huge inclusion, Lewis could be a huge omission... Schoenmakers was done like a dinner in the air against Tippett. He lacked the strength and the height to compete and was destroyed. Lake will still be outmatched in terms of height, but he has the strength to compete for a contested grab. Lewis was the top possession getter for the game and didn?t get a lot of pressure defensively. It will be a big plus for the Swans? chances if he doesn?t get up for Saturday.
Two months on, still baffled by the Grundy substitution... he came off for Towers (who, I?ll admit, played pretty well in a short cameo). There was no injury concerns with Reg and it seemed like Laidler was the more obvious choice if we were going to take off a defender. A really bold move would have been to take off Pyke, who did not play well, go with a faster line-up and leave Tippett and Reid to do the rucking. Mike Pyke?s form has improved substantially since this match (he got 5 possessions, 1 mark and we were destroyed in hit-outs 46-32) so I expect a better showing around the ruck this weekend.
CONDITIONS
Minor periods of rain. Night game.
Summary: Dry conditions will offer a small advantage to Swans. Probably negligible in terms of impact.
LIKELY INS AND OUTS
Sydney Swans
In: Hannebery, Shaw
Out: Laidler, Towers
Hawthorn
Ins: Lake, Rioli (?), Hale, Spangher, Duryea, Sewell
Outs: Lewis (?), McEvoy, Woodward, Litherland, Ceglar
Summary: Some big inclusions for the Hawks, but an unsettled line-up with lots of changes possible. If Rioli or Sewell come in it will be a big gamble.
MAJOR POINTS
Rampe destroyed Gunston... and not just physically one-on-one. It was clear that Rampe got inside Gunston?s head. Rampe pulled off a goal saving tackle (probably one of the best defensive efforts of the season) and Gunston?s frustration was evident, particularly when he gave away a 50m-penalty shortly thereafter.
Teddy really needs help... his form in recent weeks against key forwards has been badly down, particularly on the lead. Riewoldt, Pav and Petrie have managed to easily outposition him goalside. Roughhead beat Ted on the lead several times and even looked better when the ball hit the deck. If Ted starts on Roughhead this weekend and gets outmanoeuvered we will have to look to Reid to come back as a loose man in defence.
Goodes can be a game changer... he kicked 2.1 within five minutes in the third and could have easily finished with five goals, especially if he?d been paid the clear mark he clunked in the goal square late in the fourth.
So can Breust... he really kick-started their comeback and scored or set up some critical goals. His ?don?t argue? has to be one of the best in the comp and it was the first time all season that Smith looked like he was out of his comfort zone. Players need to be aware that he will consistently break tackles and be prepared to back up their teammates.
?Engine room down?... Four Hawks (Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, Shiels) ended as the game's top four possession winners and our midfield was badly beaten for extended patches in the third and fourth quarter. Worse still, our coaches were slow to respond to this and there was never an attempt to put a hard tag on these players - mostly because Benny was busy running amok in their forward 50. Shiels, in contrast, really shut down Kennedy for critical parts of the contest. Hannebery is a big inclusion in this regard and will hopefully even things up in the middle. Keiran Jack is also in much better form and his rib issue seems to have settled down.
Buddy?s inaccuracy is somewhat overstated... he kicked 3.5, but some of his set shots were deep in the pocket and would have taken a miracle to kick. He probably only missed one, at most two, that he should have gotten. Tippett?s inaccuracy, on the other hand, was a big problem. He missed two shots from the 35-45m region that he really should have kicked. Hawthorn?s accuracy for similar set shots was scarily good and it was probably the difference in the end.
Our run off half-back was down... we really had trouble clearing out of our half of the ground for extended periods. Mal played poorly with only 17 possessions and Shaw was a big omission for us.
Rohan played quite well, Parker not so much... Despite his low possession count, Rohan played one of his best games of the season. He spoiled well, broke the lines, took a couple of crucial grabs in the defensive 50. Parker was below his best - but only because we?ve come to expect so much from him. He tried hard, as he always does, and impacted the contest but had difficulty emerging from the packs with the ball. I?d be interested to know how much Parker and Hannebery link up in the middle because that might have been the difference.
Lake is a huge inclusion, Lewis could be a huge omission... Schoenmakers was done like a dinner in the air against Tippett. He lacked the strength and the height to compete and was destroyed. Lake will still be outmatched in terms of height, but he has the strength to compete for a contested grab. Lewis was the top possession getter for the game and didn?t get a lot of pressure defensively. It will be a big plus for the Swans? chances if he doesn?t get up for Saturday.
Two months on, still baffled by the Grundy substitution... he came off for Towers (who, I?ll admit, played pretty well in a short cameo). There was no injury concerns with Reg and it seemed like Laidler was the more obvious choice if we were going to take off a defender. A really bold move would have been to take off Pyke, who did not play well, go with a faster line-up and leave Tippett and Reid to do the rucking. Mike Pyke?s form has improved substantially since this match (he got 5 possessions, 1 mark and we were destroyed in hit-outs 46-32) so I expect a better showing around the ruck this weekend.
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