To challenge for the Flag in 2016....

[longmile]

One thing that has worried me over the last 12 months or so is that we have periods where teams kick multiple goals against us.. I think GC kicked 6 unanswered in our last meeting. This didn't used to happen and shouldn't..Even the best teams didn't do that to us. We used to be able to play tempo footy and keepings off to starve the opposition and stifle their flow. I am not sure if it is an issue with our stoppages or is it a lack of on field leadership to say lets choke them now ?

I agree with this. Our forte was always our ability to stem the oppositions flow and momentum and bide our time for our turn. But this year that seemed to be go and we seemed to collapse in a heap for extended periods.

[Mug Punter]

I'm going to try and revive this post with referencing that great BF article on List Management 101 but it also has a depth analysis on the second page

Strategy - List Management 101 Swans | BigFooty AFL Forum

Basically the assertion is you need 28 AFL Senior standard players and it is also ideal if 22+ have 50+ games

My assessment of our list at the end of next year is that we will have the following senior quality players with an * against those under 50 games (at end of next year)

Smith
Ted
Jones*
Talia
Reg
Rampe
Laidler
K Jack
Hanners
Mitchell
Buddy
Reid
Towers*
Parker
Lloyd
Tippet
McGlynn
Heeney*
Sinclair
JPK
McVeigh
Harry
Rohan

So, that's 23 with 20 over 50 games

Let's assume Mills slots straight into the seniors , which takes us to 24. And I'm going to assume we go for Adcock or a similarly experienced player in the PSD for quality depth which will take us to 25 and 21 over 50 games which is getting close on the second marker but well short on the magic number of 28.

So, where do we get the additional 3 players? Brandon Jack is close but not quite there yet and I'll back him in for 2016 and he could also give the 50 games a nudge with a breakout season. IF we get Dunks Jnr I can see him being a year off. Sam Naismith may be another and maybe Robbo, Rose and/or Hewett will just explode on the scene.

Taking Swansfan51's analysis I reckon we definitely need to recruit an experienced re-cycled player and we need a couple of players to really exceed expectations for us not to fall short next year.

2017 is a different story though. Assuming we only lose Reg and Ben at the end of next year, and assuming that BJ,Hewett and Dunks and one of Sam/Robbo/Rose make the step up and we are already at 27 players with potentially 23 over 5 games if BJ makes the step up. I can see us recruiting an experienced key defender to replace Ted at the end of next year (probably for our second round pick a la Henderson) which would take us to 28 seniors with 24 over 50 games

So, clearly not writing us off for 2016 but the stats say our list depth chart is a year off

[liz]

Why would we lose Reg at the end of next year. He's just signed a 3 year contract. And he's only 29 - not really on his last legs.

Did you mean Ted, instead?

[Mug Punter]

Why would we lose Reg at the end of next year. He's just signed a 3 year contract. And he's only 29 - not really on his last legs.

Did you mean Ted, instead?

Yes I did Liz, thanks for clarifying that...

[wolftone57]

I think to challenge for a flag we need to stop wasting the ball out of clearances. We got plenty last season but wasted most of them by kicking indiscriminately to the forward-line. Our mids tend to not lift the eyes before just bombing into the forward-line. The other thing is our passing was terrible. The worst of the mids were Benny, Kizza, Mitchell, Hannas and joey. They all get the ball a huge amount but their delivery is at best average. Occasionally you see an amazing pass that shows just how good they can be but not enough. We would have scored another 50-100 points if our mids could hit a target in the forward 50 regularly. We score over 75% of our total points from rebound footy. If you are winning the clearances and you still are scoring the majority of points from rebounds this tells me we have a skills problem in the mids.

To win a premiership we will have to address this problem immediately and put the mids on notice. They need to practice until they get it right and good to elite delivery is like it was natural.

[Mug Punter]

Rumour has it Buddy coming back to pre-season in rude fitness, that would be a huge plus

[YvonneH]

Rumour has it Buddy coming back to pre-season in rude fitness, that would be a huge plus

I assume 'rude' means good, although in 'my time' it meant something else altogether.

[blackdeathmetal]

In my honest opinion, to challenge for the flag we need to do the following things:

- Stop handballing to teammates who are under pressure from 2 or 3 defenders. We need loose men around the ball who can get the ball away quickly from congested play.

- Stop bombing the ball into our forward 50. From memory an example of where this occurred repeatedly was our 2nd half against Richmond.

- Fix our kicking in front of goal (as mentioned by various other folks on this thread).

- Win more contests from stoppages. With Sinclair in our squad I'm expecting a bit more from the ruck. Hopefully we work on a style of play that will really allow our ruckmen to tap the ball to our advantage.

Like most other users, I'm predicting the Swans to be a 5-8 placed team on the ladder for 2016. I do hope though that next year is like 2011 where we we build towards a premiership winning team for future seasons.

[Doctor]

We'll also have to adjust to the return to a 4 man bench with no sub and the reduction in the interchange numbers.

[Cosmic Wizard]

I am pretty confident about next year, top 2 at least!

We have a mobile ruckman who has experience GF defeat, and that must burn.

A new 22 year old key defender, ready and prime.

And we are getting Mills, who is a totally gun; dare I say better than Heeney!

And don't forget Buddy; a champion with a lot to prove who will prove it big time.

And we have a lot of young player ready to burn.

Only thing which might holds us back is a coach who is too defensive minded.

All and all, can't wait

[Ludwig]

Just to put things into perspective of where we stand in the pecking order as far as experience goes, here is a list of the number of 50 game players that each club will have at the beginning of next season, barring any additional experienced players being picked up, like Jed Adcock for example.

Whether there is a relationship between this stat and how clubs might finish next year, well, I'll let you be the judge of that.

Eagles........... 24
Freo.............. 23
North Mel...... 22
Port Adelaide. 22
Hawthorn...... 21
Richmond..... 21
Collingwood.. 20
Essendon..... 20
Geelong....... 19
Adelaide...... 19
GWS Giants. 19
Brisbane...... 18
Melbourne ... 17
GC Suns...... 17
Carlton........ 16
Bulldogs...... 16
Sydney........ 16
Saints.......... 14

[Mug Punter]

I am pretty confident about next year, top 2 at least!

We have a mobile ruckman who has experience GF defeat, and that must burn.

A new 22 year old key defender, ready and prime.

And we are getting Mills, who is a totally gun; dare I say better than Heeney!

And don't forget Buddy; a champion with a lot to prove who will prove it big time.

And we have a lot of young player ready to burn.

Only thing which might holds us back is a coach who is too defensive minded.

All and all, can't wait

I have a feeling of quiet confidence too. If Buddy can come back super fit, as he apparently is, then that could lift the entire group.

As always we'll need to see some players step up:

* Mitchell to make the step up to A Grade level with a consistent season of 30+ possession games
* Heeney to continue his development, I'd like to see him left as a forward for at least one more year
* Lloyd, Harry and Rampe to continue their improvement
* Towers to display his finals form for the full season (If he does he will be a revelation)
* At least three (but hopefully four) of Mills, Rose, Davis, Nankervis, BJ, Robbo, Sam or Hewett to become bona fide senior AFL footballers as opposed to stop gap players

I'm really looking forward to seeing our forward line next year - Towers really does give us something different if he can just replicate his finals (and by all reports training) form next year. Buddy marauding on the half forward line and wing, Reid the mobile half forward marking target, Tippett/Sinclair in the square, Towers as the third forward marking option with Heeney and Harry as the small forwards....

[Mug Punter]

Just to put things into perspective of where we stand in the pecking order as far as experience goes, here is a list of the number of 50 game players that each club will have at the beginning of next season, barring any additional experienced players being picked up, like Jed Adcock for example.

Whether there is a relationship between this stat and how clubs might finish next year, well, I'll let you be the judge of that.

Eagles........... 24
Freo.............. 23
North Mel...... 22
Port Adelaide. 22
Hawthorn...... 21
Richmond..... 21
Collingwood.. 20
Essendon..... 20
Geelong....... 19
Adelaide...... 19
GWS Giants. 19
Brisbane...... 18
Melbourne ... 17
GC Suns...... 17
Carlton........ 16
Bulldogs...... 16
Sydney........ 16
Saints.......... 14

It does highlight a lack of depth in the club and the fact we are going through a mini rebuild. It also highlights why I'd really like us to get Adcock on board on a two year. The 50+ marker is not fool proof but stands up most of the time as a required marker for success.

It also reveals why I think we'll be well placed in 2017. Assuming Ted and Benny are our only two retirements at the end of 2015 from our 50+ club we should have 4 of Mitchell, Talia, BJ, Lloyd and Sinclair hit the 50 games mark next year. If we were to recruit in Adcock and another 50+ game player at the end of 2016 we should be back to around the 20 player mark.

Two clubs that will also be in the sweet spot in 2017, at least in terms of this stat, are GWS and Collingwood.

[wolftone57]

I think what the Hawks have shown us is (their) defense is definitely underrated, but they have obviously got the balance right. What happened to the Eagles strong forward line? A team with Kennedy, Darling, LeCras, Hill and Cripps are definitely "built for attack" but the Hawks defence stopped them in their tracks.
I don't think we need to change things too much apart from becoming better shots on goal.
We used to be like the Hawks when it came to punishing turnovers but not recently. Maybe it is the lack of a skillful, rebounding defender, the lose of Malceski has hurt more than I thought it would. Rampe hasn't progressed as much as I had hoped. I really thought he would have become a better kick by now, his technique looks pretty good and he can kick 50-60m with ease.

- - - Updated - - -


with a fully fit team (apart from Roughead) to choose from.

After re-watching last season we need to change a lot.

1. We need to rid ourselves of our little sleepy lapses where we simply play like U 14's for a quarter or two.

2. We need to improve our disposal incredibly. Our disposal efficiency was one of the worst in the AFL from clearances. Only 30% of our clearances even reached a Swans player and then only 40% of them were to advantage. We were wasteful out of defence too.

3. Stop the panic under pressure. If a player can't hack the pressure then drop him.

4. Our goal kicking wasn't the best, especially from our specialists. Tip, Bud and Reid accounted for a fair whack of our misses and our small forwards/resting mids were also wasteful.

5. Our mids need to deliver better, especially to the forward line, and kick goals on the run. The spray factor from these each game could have kept the ground wet for a week.

6. Our smalls have got to stop spoiling our KF by contesting against them. We all love to see Parks, Deano, BJ, Hannas etc take a specky but there is a time and place and running with the flight of the ball into a pack isn't one of them. Parks wasn't the only one to commit this sin. All those mentioned spoiled their taller teammates at some stage of the season by flying against the flow into a big pack that was controlled by our KF. Several injuries, none serious except Parks, ensued. They are there to crumb and when the ball did come down were outnumbered because they were on the ground. If you are a small forward your first responsibility is to crumb.

7. You talk about defence and ours was ordinary for most of the season. Quite frankly I think we were lucky to draw so many teams who just ended up crappier than us. The defence has to be much better. No more stupid kicks across goal. No more stupid handball to players standing still, the panic handball that kills a coach. Every defender was guilty of this at some time last season. No more panic kicks out of defence to a wall of opposition players. If we are going to be a good team we are going to have to learn to block and set a wall like Hawks do.

8. Need to kick more and HB less. Simple really the name of the game is 'FOOTBALL' NOT 'HANDBALL'. How about we go back to basics and learn how to kick with precision. That would be refreshing. Funny we did it in 2012.

9. The coaches have to change the game plan to suit the personnel. They drafted them. They must have had a reason? If they did then they have to introduce the special talent each player brings to the game and make it a part of our strategies. Stoppages must get even better than last year. We got better than 2014 but were still way down on the best sides. NO MORE BOMBING INDISCRIMINATELY TO THE FORWARD LINE. LEARN HOW TO PUT THE BALL TO ADVANTAGE. In the last few games of last season there was some work by Deano that was just sensational. Kicking at 100% against Suns he continually put the ball to the forwards advantage and it paid off in most cases.

[wolftone57]

I don't think it realistic to be looking at a premiership in 2016 but then again I said that about 2012. I thought we were a year early in 2012 and was elated we even made the top four. Once we did that I thought we were a chance but up until the last three minor round games I thought we might just be making up the numbers. But the game against Hawks at the SCG changed everything for me. We might have lost that game but we proved we were not only as good as them we proved we still had improvement to be better.

For me from that day came the realisation that if you shut down Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli, Buddy and Lewis you effectively shut the Hawks down. That might not be the case today but it was then. In 2013 Clarkeson changed things and asked his players for a more even effort and got it. He rotated more through the mids.

Why can't we win the premiership? We can, every side has the opportunity. If we play at our best and capitalise on the strengths we have and recognise our weaknesses and address them we can. But a few things need to fall into place. A virtually injury free season. Spread the load in the forward line. Young players have to buy into the ethos and stand up. Our older players have to be better, fitter and more sharing. We need a very good sports psychologist. We can't rely on Bud or Tip too much and just kick to them. We need to win the stoppages and get to goal the quick and easy way and not use rebound footy as our main weapon.

I am a bit sus of us starting our season nearly two weeks later than all the other clubs. Even Hawks are already on the track (the younger players of every other club and this year many of the senior players of aspirant clubs like Bullies, Crows, Port, Eagles, Freo).