G.F. Day Thread. Sydney V Western Bulldogs. MCG 2.30pm.

[Plugger46]

Absolutely shattered.

We went back to the Riser in South until stumps. It was nice to be amongst our own and away from any smart arse neutral. Haven't looked at a TV or opened social media since the game finished.

[Blue Sun]

I thought I might feel a little better about it come Monday morning. I don't. The AFL wrote the script and the adjudicators performed it with gusto. It ruined what could have been an amazing Grand Final.

Just need to accept it for what it was and move forward, with fingers crossed it doesn't happen again (to any club).

[crackedactor]

I just calculated an unpaired t-test analysis on the significance of finals free kicks paid to the Bulldogs vs frees paid to their opposition, there was a statistical significance P=0.0057.

From a statistical analysis, this is a strong statistical trend. A P<0.05 is considered statistically significant.

In contrast, Sydney's 2016 finals free kicks for vs the opposition's free kick for, when compared with an unpaired t-test was P=0.1285 ... not statistically significant.

***A limitation of this analysis is the small sample size (just 4 games for both teams), however, this is typically more important for non-significant results ie not detecting a significant difference, where one might actually exist. For the Bulldogs games I would have confidence in the significant finding.

Numbers don't lie.

Whilst on the case of probability. I have watched VFL/AFL football for 45 years and never seen a game where no free kicks were paid to a team in 2 quarters of football (Alas our 2nd and 3rd quarters). Can you provide me the probability that a team will not receive a free kick in a half game of AFL standard football?

[barry]

I thought I might feel a little better about it come Monday morning. I don't. The AFL wrote the script and the adjudicators performed it with gusto. It ruined what could have been an amazing Grand Final.

Just need to accept it for what it was and move forward, with fingers crossed it doesn't happen again (to any club).

Of course it will happen again. The whole thing is regarded as a success. A blueprint for the future.

[lwjoyner]

Age today published that Scrays had a +99 free kick differential for the yr. Nth next on 71 followed by pies 39. Worst was Port -59 and gws -54. Nothing shown for swans.

[undy]

Agree. I wrote on a Sportsfan thread last week that if the umpires don't get caught up in the 'Romance of the Dogs', we will win by 29 pts. I still stand by that assertion today. The umpires did get caught up in it and it cost us a premiership. They are supposed to be 'professionals'. They suck, the AFL sucks.......and it's sucking the life out of Swans fans.

While they get paid, unlike the NRL they are far from full time. Normally I'd think there isn't too much to worry about, but saturday illustrates that they (or at least 3 of them) have a long way to go. Bring on full time umpires.

Agree. I wrote on a Sportsfan thread last week that if the umpires don't get caught up in the 'Romance of the Dogs', we will win by 29 pts. I still stand by that assertion today. The umpires did get caught up in it and it cost us a premiership. They are supposed to be 'professionals'. They suck, the AFL sucks.......and it's sucking the life out of Swans fans.

[goswannies]

Whilst on the case of probability. I have watched VFL/AFL football for 45 years and never seen a game where no free kicks were paid to a team in 2 quarters of football (Alas our 2nd and 3rd quarters). Can you provide me the probability that a team will not receive a free kick in a half game of AFL standard football?

The t-test is more definitive than probability. It doesn't say that there was anything untoward, just that there was a difference and, importantly, that the difference was significant (not just a matter of chance). In a scientific paper, this finding would be followed up with a more subjective discussion as to why.

As for the probability issue, yes, it could be determined to a degree by looking at quarter-by-quarter free kick count for every game where these stats were available and seeing how many satisfy your criteria. An interesting exercise, but I don't have the data to do it.

What I can tell you is that the 2 largest grand final free kick against differentials (in terms of percentages are now held by the Swans (2012 74.4% went the Bulldogs' way, 2012 67.7% of the free kicks went Hawthorn's way) and we hold the record for the lowest number of free kicks for in a grand final ... twice ... 8 frees for in 2016 and 1996. Some could say we are umpired unfavourably, others could interpret the numbers as we play too rough.

[mcs]

While they get paid, unlike the NRL they are far from full time. Normally I'd think there isn't too much to worry about, but saturday illustrates that they (or at least 3 of them) have a long way to go. Bring on full time umpires.

I bleat on about this all the time - but it is ridiculous, in the modern professional age, in a game involving huge $$$ from TV rights and everything else, that the umpires are not full time professionals. Just for the sake of the integrity of the game, the AFL should get off its butt, find the few million needed, and make them all professional. But the AFL is too worried about 'fairytales' and 'expansionism' to worry about the integrity of the game...

- - - Updated - - -

Age today published that Scrays had a +99 free kick differential for the yr. Nth next on 71 followed by pies 39. Worst was Port -59 and gws -54. Nothing shown for swans.

The stats I saw fairly late in the season had us down the bottom as one of the worst few in terms of the free kick differential.

[mcs]

The t-test is more definitive than probability. It doesn't say that there was anything untoward, just that there was a difference and, importantly, that the difference was significant (not just a matter of chance). In a scientific paper, this finding would be followed up with a more subjective discussion as to why.

As for the probability issue, yes, it could be determined to a degree by looking at quarter-by-quarter free kick count for every game where these stats were available and seeing how many satisfy your criteria. An interesting exercise, but I don't have the data to do it.

What I can tell you is that the 2 largest grand final free kick against differentials (in terms of percentages are now held by the Swans (2012 74.4% went the Bulldogs' way, 2012 67.7% of the free kicks went Hawthorn's way) and we hold the record for the lowest number of free kicks for in a grand final ... twice ... 8 frees for in 2016 and 1996. Some could say we are umpired unfavourably, others could interpret the numbers as we play too rough.

It is of no surprise that there is significance to the dogs free kick count in a statistical sense, even if the sample size was small.

Its also of no surprise that we keep getting stuffed over in finals. It seems our game style is not one that the umpires, for whatever reason, look favourably on in terms of free kicks. We are not a rough team, and I think the number of free kicks we give away is probably somewhere around average. The problem is, and it is increasingly going to get worse, is that our key strengths (such as tackling) simply does not get rewarded in terms of free kicks like it should. With players now allowed to drop the ball at will, tunnel ball it, gridiron pass it, then there are plenty of ways to make it look like the ball was 'dislodged' in the tackle rather than incorrectly disposed.

With the obsession the AFL has to speed up the game, they are fundamentally shifting to rewarding teams that blatantly push the boundaries of the rules in terms of disposal (i.e. you can get away with anything), while punishing those teams (hawks and us are two good examples in the finals) who have worked hard to perfect the art of tackling. Its nigh on impossible to get a holding the ball decision these days because teams are so good at disguising 'incorrect disposal' as the ball being dislodged. The last few years the Hawks have perfected the 'slipping the ball through the fingers' move (often above their heads) and the doggies spent the whole of this season getting away consistently with dropping the ball.

As time goes by, that 2012 Premiership becomes all the more remarkable, given the free kick count that day and the team we were playing against. A win on Saturday would of been truly one for the ages had we managed to pull it off, given how much we were bent over by the umpires.

[Industrial Fan]

I doubt I'll watch the Tv replay of the game, so can someone please confirm if the free against Rampe in the third was a htb call?

[ScottH]

I doubt I'll watch the Tv replay of the game, so can someone please confirm if the free against Rampe in the third was a htb call?

I saw it yesterday. He did fend off one tackle only to be tackled again, but still managed to get the ball away.
If anything I thought it would be for a high fend off, rather than HTB. Still confused.

I watched about the last 20mins of the 3rd term on TV.
I reckon there were at least 6 frees we should have got.
High tackles. Throws. Another sliding into the legs. Yet we got nothing. Even the Hanners high contact (after the Rampe HTB) was pretty soft.

We really got beaten on the outside of the packs.
When we did win the ball, which was tough going for both sides, they managed to get it to a free player, where as we always seemed to get it to someone who was under pressure.

Great contest.
Devastated about the result.
Never booed the umps so hard in my life. A @@@@ing shambles.

[CureTheSane]

The Rampe free should have been there.
Problem is that they haven't been paying that most of the year, nor did they when a Bulldog was tackled.
Incorrect disposal doesn't seem to be a thing anymore either. Bulldog had prior, is tackled, ball spills free, #playonbulldogs

[Plugger46]

I doubt I'll watch the Tv replay of the game, so can someone please confirm if the free against Rampe in the third was a htb call?

Shocking decision.

[KTigers]

Us not receiving free kicks is also the Bulldogs not giving away free kicks. At the ground I kept track of the
free kick counts during the game.
The Bulldogs gave away 3 in the first quarter, 1 in the second quarter, none in the third quarter and four in the last
quarter. So, for an entire half of the Grand Final, an hour of very intense footy, the three umpires saw the leading
contested ball team in the comp infringe once. That's it. Once. Were they not watching the Bulldogs at all?
Can we have umpires that actually pay attention to both teams. They missed the Scully 50M the previous week
too and that likely put the Dogs into the GF in the first place. There is no conspiracy, these jokers aren't smart
enough for that, they are just not very good at their job.

[Meg]

G.F. Day Thread. Sydney V Western Bulldogs. MCG 2.30pm.

No charges laid by MRP. I thought the late high hit on Kennedy (for which Kennedy at least got a 50m penalty) was deserving of a fine.

But this was the MRP's view on the incident in which Hannebery's knee was damaged. I read it to imply ump should have given a free.

"Contact between the Western Bulldogs? Easton Wood and the Sydney Swans? Dan Hannebery from the fourth quarter of Saturday?s match was assessed. The panel said the ball was loose with Wood and Hannebery coming from opposite directions to the contest. The opposing players arrived at the contest simultaneously and Wood went down low in his approach and made contact with Hannebery?s knee as the Bulldogs? player took possession of the ball. While it was a decision for the umpire if the Swans? player should have received a free kick for the contact, it was the view of the panel that Wood had his eyes on the ball at all times and his action did not meet the definition of rough conduct under the AFL Regulations, in his approach to the ball and his opponent. No further action was taken."