Lies, damned lies and statistics

[Beerman]

Sad but true fact: I love all things number-y. So I thought I'd set up a thread to post random swans-related stats etc. This includes things like champion data info, what various mathematical models of how the Swans will do, random pieces of statistical trivia, even AFL & Fox fantasy points!

Please join in the fun!

I'll kick us off with a bit of a guessing game. According to Champion Data, based on rounds 1-16 2017 *only* who has been the Swans best key defender, and 13th in the league?

And here's a follow-up question. On the same criteria, who is our best general defender and 7th best in the league?

No cheating if you have seen the CD ratings!

[dimelb]

Interesting.
Without looking, I'd say (1) Reg and (2) Rampe.

[Beerman]

Interesting.
Without looking, I'd say (1) Reg and (2) Rampe.

I forgot to mention...minimum 10 games, which knocks out Rampe who has only played 8. Reg has been good the past few weeks but has had a slow start to the year.

So no to both.

Edit: Just checked and Swans don't have many players classified as key defenders, so if you take a look at that, you should be able to work it out pretty easily. Rampe, for example is classified as a Small/Medium (ie. general) defender.

Looks like the AFL website doesn't match the twitter feed, so just ignore that comment.

[Markwebbos]

M&M
Melican and Mills?

[tasswan]

Melican and Smith

[AB Swannie]

The problem with these stats is the classification of a player. Key defender is probably ok but who in the swans is described as a general defender? Is Nick Smith a key defender or general defender? Are Jones and Newman general defenders or midfielders/rebounders?

With this in mind, regarding your question, if Rampe and Grundy are out then that would leave Melican as the most likely answer as a key defender.

The general defender is trickier due to the classification of players. I would say Mills is a chance here as a pure defender but Lloyd would be my guess overall if he is classified that way.

[Beerman]

Melican is correct!

It isn't Smith (who was only average at the start of the year), or Mills (who is probably not helped by doing nothing at all during the Melbourne game).

You are right about the classification being tricky. I would not classify this player as a defender.

[liz]

Newman?

A discussion like this highlights the limitation of "statistical analyses" such as those published by CD, and why those (not on RWO) who proclaim them as the only way to objectively measure players' performances are misguided. (And the title of this thread alludes to how misguided that can be.)

None of us can have any complaints about how Melican has been performing. He's done an excellent job in his first half-dozen or so games and looks to be a promising prospect. But he's not been playing on the oppositions' most dangerous key forwards. Reg has been doing that (and Rampe too, since his return). If Melican had been playing on the same opponents that Reg had been, would his statistical measures be the same? (Almost certainly not.) I doubt any Swans fans would consider Melican has been more important, or better performed (on an absolute basis) to Reg over the last couple of months.

[Beerman]

Newman?

A discussion like this highlights the limitation of "statistical analyses" such as those published by CD, and why those (not on RWO) who proclaim them as the only way to objectively measure players' performances are misguided. (And the title of this thread alludes to how misguided that can be.)

None of us can have any complaints about how Melican has been performing. He's done an excellent job in his first half-dozen or so games and looks to be a promising prospect. But he's not been playing on the oppositions' most dangerous key forwards. Reg has been doing that (and Rampe too, since his return). If Melican had been playing on the same opponents that Reg had been, would his statistical measures be the same? (Almost certainly not.) I doubt any Swans fans would consider Melican has been more important, or better performed (on an absolute basis) to Reg over the last couple of months.

Ding! Newman is correct.

The fun with stats is working out what they mean. I wouldn't like to say that Melican is better than Grundy this year, but I think this shows that our second-tier players are very good. Every team has stars who regularly perform, and who take up most of the attention of the opposition and most of the club's salary cap. But the key to outperforming is to find lesser-known players who perform better than their pay-packets suggest, and that's what's happening here, I think.

[Thunder Shaker]

Drawn games in the VFL/AFL

1. How many drawn games have there been?
2. Which club has been involved in the greatest number of drawn games?
3. Which two clubs have been involved in the most draws with each other? (Two correct answers)
4. Which current club has played the most games since their last draw?
5. GWS has played two draws in a row. How many times has this happened in the same season?
6. Which season has had the greatest number of drawn games?
7. What was the highest score in a drawn game?
8. How many drawn finals have there been?
9. Which two clubs were involved in the first draw in the 1897 season?
10. In what season did South Melbourne make the finals because they had drawn a game?

[AB Swannie]

I saw this on twitter:

Players averaging 30+ disp / 2+ goals in a season

1968 Bob Skilton
2017 Patrick Dangerfield

[Beerman]

Drawn games in the VFL/AFL
1. How many drawn games have there been?

I would guess about 120. Bit less than one a year, but more in the earlier years when scoring was lower.

5. GWS has played two draws in a row. How many times has this happened in the same season?

About 3 times I think?

[goswannies]

Drawn games in the VFL/AFL

1. How many drawn games have there been?
2. Which club has been involved in the greatest number of drawn games?
3. Which two clubs have been involved in the most draws with each other? (Two correct answers)
4. Which current club has played the most games since their last draw?
5. GWS has played two draws in a row. How many times has this happened in the same season?
6. Which season has had the greatest number of drawn games?
7. What was the highest score in a drawn game?
8. How many drawn finals have there been?
9. Which two clubs were involved in the first draw in the 1897 season?
10. In what season did South Melbourne make the finals because they had drawn a game?

1. 156

[Auntie.Gerald]

If we win every remaining game this season 2017 we will be on the same games lost as 2016 !!

I think ?

Amazing !!!

[Beerman]

If we win every remaining game this season 2017 we will be on the same games lost as 2016 !!

It seems a bit unlikely. We have some very tough games coming up, but the comp is not strong this year so you never know.

On the GWS game, the CD stats are interesting. Papley was best on ground (and in career best form at the moment), followed by Franklin, which all makes sense to me. But I'm quite surprised that they rated Hannebery very slightly above Kieran Jack. (I thought Jack was quite good, and Hannebery quite poor).