Tweet
And Lost Mitchell and Priddis
-
-
Bloods
"Lockett is the best of all time" - Robert Harvey, Darrel Baldock, Nathan Burke, Kevin Bartlett, Bob SkiltonComment
-
That's fun. Great positivity. I think our game style has to evolve to suit the personnel we have now. Before we had a dour, hard, not highly skilled bunch who worked very hard. But now we have something very different. We have true talent, top end talent. We have managed to pull the rug out from under Essendon's feet with young Ronke. It only took 35 years. The kids has real talent and ferocity at the contest. Florent, Mills, Heens, Lloyd, Parker, Hayward, Dawson, Aliir, Jones, Papley, McCartin have all now played AFL and are highly skilled. O'Riordan isn't without talent either and is a very good user. Amarty and Bell are highly talented lads who may take a year or two but will be good players, possibly even great players.
This list is exciting so we need an exciting game plan. We need to develop a game plan that does not rely on us spending long periods in our back half. A nice attacking game plan that relies firstly on clearances would be good. In 2019 we will have Mills and Jones to join Kennedy, Parker, Heeney, Hewett, Papley, Dawson and sometimes Ronke. Hayward, Harry, Stoddart, Ling, Clarke etc will provide speed along with Paps and Ronke. I think the team is exciting and I can't wait to see who they draft. more to the point WHAT they draft in terms of position, speed, hardness and skills.Comment
-
So we have Thurlow, Clarke and Menzel who look very likely to challenge for the top22
We have Rowbottom who may do a Luke Parker and join the squad as an 18yr that we can’t hold back from the top22 in 2019
Blakey appears to need to fill out a little to play forward in 2019.....but if McCartin at the same weight and only 3cms shorter played at 17yrs of age in his first year at the club well Nick won’t be a surprise
For me no one else jumps out as a 2019 best 22 player that we have recruited this draft etc
So I have left out macca, Grundy and jack. They easily can be in the best 22 especially macca. But I’d like to see us be able finally transition faster and via running players from the back. I truly believe for us to be a top 4 team in 2019 we need to get the games into players that can help us run with the best running teams.
I have swapped :
Thurlow for macca
Melican for Grundy
Menzel for jack
To start the season my preferred 22 is as follows:
FB: Smith, Melican, Rampe
HB: Thurlow, AA, Lloyd
C: Florent, Kennedy, Jones
R: Naismith, Parker, Heeney
HF: Hayward, Reid, Mcartin
FF: Ronke, Franklin, Papley
INT:
Mills
Hewett
Menzel
Cunningham
23. Clarke
24. grundy
25. Oriordan
26. Ling
27. Blakey
28. Sinclair
29. Rowbottom
30. Stoddart
31. Cameron
32. Amartey
33. Rose
34. Maibaum
35. Jack
36. McInerney
37. Foot
38. Macca
39. Bell
38. Pink
39. Fox
40. Tucker
41. Reynolds
42. Wicks
43. Blair ??"be tough, only when it gets tough"
Comment
-
You missed Dawson; I'm interested in where he sits in your pecking order (assuming 23 and below is a hierarchy).
I know that this list is your preferred team, rather than what you think will happen, but I can't see McVeigh missing out, and will watch his preseason with interest. When I got down to Lakeside in January he was carving up the practice matches (and I recall McCartin even then being a stand-out). I hope that Horse is brave enough to omit Jack, though, and I agree that Reg is probably the less preferred option, particularly on the bigger grounds. That also turns on how well Melican comes back from his horror run.Comment
-
I am finding it very difficult to make predictions on a best 22. Every time I try to do one I leave a player out who I like. Therefore, I started playing around with the stats from the past to try to help me. This is what I discovered:
Swans Player Usage History- 2012 - 3rd, Premiers - 31 players used in total. 8+ games = 25 players. A clear preferred 22 players with 17+ games.
- 2013 - 4th, Lost Prelim - 35 players used in total. 8+ games = 25 players. A clear preferred 17 who played 20+ games More fluid tail with 8 players who played between 9 & 15 games.
- 2014 - 1st, Lost GF - 33 players used in total. 8+ games = 25 players. 21 players played 19+ games meaning very little change week to week.
- 2015 - 4th, out in straight sets - 32 players used in total. 8+ games = 26 players. 21 players 17+ games.
- 2016 - 1st, robbed in GF - 34 players used in total. 8+ games = 27 players. 22 players 16+ games.
- 2017 - 6th, lost in semi - 35 players used in total. 8+ games = 27 players. 22 16+ games.
- 2018 - 5th, lost in EF - 36 players used in total. 8+ games = 28 players. 18 18+ games. Fluid tail with 10 players playing between 8 & 15 games.
2018 season- On average each team had a core of 27 players that played 8+ games. The outliers were GWS and Port Adelaide who used 30 and 23 players 8+ times respectively.
- The top five teams had significantly more 20+ game players than anyone else. Yes - they got to play more games due to finals but it is significant. They had an average of 15.75 players play 20+ games whereas the bottom 10 teams only had an average of 9.9 players to play 20+ games.
What does this all mean? To be brutally honest - I'm not 100% sure but there are two takeaways:
- We are looking at having a group of 27 or 28 players to play 8+ games.
- We want a core group of 14 to 16 players to play almost every game.
Using last year as a guide:- We have 22 players remaining on our list from the 28 who played 8+ games in 2018. (Hannebery, Newman, Rohan, Marsh, Robinson, Towers are gone)
- We have traded/signed three players who should be in this group. Otherwise, why would you trade for them? (Menzel, Clarke, Thurlow)
- We have three players who had played 8+ games in 2017 but were injured for all of 2018 and so should rejoin this group. (Reid, Naismith, Melican)
- I then think Fox, Jack, and Grundy are overtaken by Dawson, O'Riordan, and a smoky.
Leaving us with:
1 Aliir, Aliir
2 Clarke, Ryan
3 Cunningham, Harry
4 Dawson, Jordan
5 Florent, Oliver
6 Franklin, Lance
7 Hayward, Will
8 Heeney, Isaac
9 Hewett, George
10 Jones, Zak
11 Kennedy, Josh
12 Lloyd, Jake
13 McCartin, Tom
14 McVeigh, Jarrad
15 Melican, Lewis
16 Menzel, Daniel
17 Mills, Callum
18 Naismith, Sam
19 O'Riordan, Colin
20 Papley, Tom
21 Parker, Luke
22 Rampe, Dane
23 Reid, Sam
24 Ronke, Ben
25 Sinclair, Callum
26 Smith, Nick
27 Thurlow, Jackson
28 ???????
I have highlighted the core group of 16 I'd like us to have play 20+ games.Comment
-
Interesting analysis of players used over 7 years. Like you, not sure how to interpret the data as injuries clearly change selection week to week; as does talent/application in a roster.
I feel the Swans have been worn out at the finals stage in a few years. For example after losing the first 6 games in 2017, the effort thereafter was probably pretty killing - especially with the traditional Swans style of play over most of those 7 years.
So, my takeaway is get into the finals with something in the tank:
1. hope for a good run with injuries
2. hope for a slightly less arduous game style
3. not "rest" players, but use the apparently better roster with more options available to spread the loadComment
-
That's great food for thought. My only quibble is that I'd like to see a ruck amongst that core group, and we are faced with an interesting choice. I think that Sinclair has the inside run—it is his spot to lose—but would like to see Naismith move past him around the middle of the season. In other words, I've just argued against my proposition: Sinclair and Naismith to play 12/13 games each, putting them outside that core of 16. I withdraw, your honour.Comment
-
Now the draft and trade periods are over, assuming everyone is fit, my team would look like this:
Menzel Franklin Haywood
Ronke Reid Cunningham
Lloyd Kennedy Jones
Mills Aliir McVeigh
Smith Melican Rampe
Naismith Parker Heeney
Sinclair Hewett Florent Papley
E: Grundy Blakey Clarke JackComment
-
FB: Stoddart, Grundy, Rampe
HB: Thurlow, Melican, Lloyd
C: Florent, Kennedy, Jones
R: Sinclair, Parker, Heeney
HF: Hayward, Reid, Menzel
FF: Ronke, Franklin, Papley
INT:
Mills
Hewett
McCartin
ClarkeComment
Comment