UMPIRES - FREE KICKS

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  • Markwebbos
    Veterans List
    • Jul 2016
    • 7186

    Swans chat UMPIRES - FREE KICKS

    The Hun have just published analysis of 20 years of free kick data by "Melbourne mathematician" John Marinopoulos

    Category: | Herald Sun

    "Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition."

    The report shows (some of this may NOT shock you):
    • West Coast rank number 1 when playing at home
    • The Bulldogs have ranked in the top 3 for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and they were number 1 on the free kick register in 2016
    • Sydney rank 18th this year for free kicks paid
    • And we rank in the bottom 3 for away free kicks and overall free kicks over the last 20 years.


    There's actually data you can download and graphs and all sorts. n.b. data excludes finals!
  • neilfws
    Senior Player
    • Aug 2009
    • 1834

    #2
    Yet in those 20 years, we've made the most grand finals of those teams and won two of them.

    It's almost as though on average, free kick counts had little effect on number of wins

    Comment

    • longmile
      Crumber
      • Apr 2011
      • 3372

      #3
      Over it

      Comment

      • Sandridge
        Outer wing, Lake Oval
        • Apr 2010
        • 2093

        #4
        Originally posted by Markwebbos
        The Hun have just published analysis of 20 years of free kick data by "Melbourne mathematician" John Marinopoulos

        Category: | Herald Sun

        "Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition."

        The report shows (some of this may NOT shock you):
        • West Coast rank number 1 when playing at home
        • The Bulldogs have ranked in the top 3 for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and they were number 1 on the free kick register in 2016
        • Sydney rank 18th this year for free kicks paid
        • And we rank in the bottom 3 for away free kicks and overall free kicks over the last 20 years.


        There's actually data you can download and graphs and all sorts. n.b. data excludes finals!
        Our numbers in finals are no better! Some time ago, I researched the free kick figures for the final series when we were the team everyone wanted to win. I didn't think we got a charmed run like the 2016 Bulldogs but wanted the figures to prove it.

        2005 finals free kicks: Swans 53 Opponents 70

        2012 finals fee kicks: Swans 40 Opponents 52

        No help for us there, even though we were the sentimental favourites in both games.

        2016 finals free kicks: Swans 59 Opponents 82
        2016 finals free kicks: Puppies 79 Opponents 48

        Comment

        • stevoswan
          Veterans List
          • Sep 2014
          • 8573

          #5
          Originally posted by Sandridge
          2016 finals free kicks: Puppies 79 Opponents 48
          ....and we got eight frees in the GF, which means in the other three finals the Fairypups played in, their opposition received an average of around 13 frees in each game. We should have seen the writing on the wall....it was always going to be tough but what we got was a killer blow.

          Comment

          • stevoswan
            Veterans List
            • Sep 2014
            • 8573

            #6
            Also, our 59 frees for the 4 games we played, means we got 51 frees in the other 3 finals! An average of 17 for each game.....and then got 8 in the GF. As I said, a killer blow.

            Comment

            • Faunac8
              Senior Player
              • Mar 2014
              • 1548

              #7
              Originally posted by neilfws
              Yet in those 20 years, we've made the most grand finals of those teams and won two of them.
              It's almost as though on average, free kick counts had little effect on number of wins
              I find it hard to agree with that view and the fact that we only won two in twenty years is, in my opinion an under achievement to a degree. In a game where the umpires decision can at best be viewed as subjective, even a slight unrecognised bias has an impact. It would be interesting to see someone create a statistic that creates a points for value per free kick. For example what is the total score for divided by free kicks awarded for each team ? It may not be scientific or even valid but it may be illuminating. I refuse to pay for Ruperts Rags so don’t have ready. access to look into this

              Comment

              • S.S. Bleeder
                Senior Player
                • Sep 2014
                • 2165

                #8
                Originally posted by neilfws
                Yet in those 20 years, we've made the most grand finals of those teams and won two of them.

                It's almost as though on average, free kick counts had little effect on number of wins
                I would reword that as; we won two grand final despite an umpiring bias against us. In addition we would have won another in 2016 had there not been a very clear bias against us. We all knew that the umpires were going to look after them before the grand final, it was the most widely discussed topic on social media.

                Comment

                • S.S. Bleeder
                  Senior Player
                  • Sep 2014
                  • 2165

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Markwebbos
                  The Hun have just published analysis of 20 years of free kick data by "Melbourne mathematician" John Marinopoulos

                  Category: | Herald Sun

                  "Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition."

                  The report shows (some of this may NOT shock you):
                  • West Coast rank number 1 when playing at home
                  • The Bulldogs have ranked in the top 3 for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and they were number 1 on the free kick register in 2016
                  • Sydney rank 18th this year for free kicks paid
                  • And we rank in the bottom 3 for away free kicks and overall free kicks over the last 20 years.


                  There's actually data you can download and graphs and all sorts. n.b. data excludes finals!
                  Last yet again. What a surprise (not). I've got a chart which shows the frees for and against differential over the last 15 years. We are on the bottom by a country mile. We don't have the ability to attach files unfortunately so can't share it.

                  Comment

                  • KTigers
                    Senior Player
                    • Apr 2012
                    • 2499

                    #10
                    It always seems to me that the AFL tiptoes around the umpires a lot. They are very loathe to criticise them. But do the umpires
                    themselves have the mental kahunas, or enough of a sense of professional pride to think to themselves as they are walking out
                    onto Optus Stadium (or it's predecessors in Perth), "hey, there are 50,000 people here and 49,500 are going for the Eagles, so I
                    really need to guard against getting sucked in by the crowd who will cry out for a Eagles free kick pretty much every time an
                    opposition player gets within 10M of the ball"? The stats say the answer is no.

                    Comment

                    • Beerman
                      Regular in the Side
                      • Oct 2010
                      • 823

                      #11
                      Originally posted by KTigers
                      It always seems to me that the AFL tiptoes around the umpires a lot. They are very loathe to criticise them.
                      Rightly so. That doesn’t mean umpiring can’t be improved though. Sadly, the rightly maligned rules of the game committee doesn’t seem to consider ease of umpiring when looking at the game.

                      But do the umpires
                      themselves have the mental kahunas, or enough of a sense of professional pride to think to themselves as they are walking out
                      onto Optus Stadium (or it's predecessors in Perth), "hey, there are 50,000 people here and 49,500 are going for the Eagles, so I
                      really need to guard against getting sucked in by the crowd who will cry out for a Eagles free kick pretty much every time an
                      opposition player gets within 10M of the ball"? The stats say the answer is no.
                      They do actually. Haydn Kennedy discussed this in an interview he did on the AFL site. They are well aware of the problem, but as it is a subconscious bias, it is very hard to do anything about. Umpires are coached in ignoring crowd influence, and to not give “even-uppers”, but the problem persists and I don’t think anyone knows what to do.

                      It’s amusing and frustrating that fans think that only umpires have subconscious bias and that they are completely fair and impartial. . I’ve yet to hear a Swans fans explain the stats by saying “yeah, we’re a very dirty team - that’s why we’ve been so successful”.

                      Comment

                      • Agent 86
                        Senior Player
                        • Aug 2004
                        • 1690

                        #12
                        Can't read the article (paywall), but here's a linked story in the Australian:
                        The Australian (delete your cookies if you're asked to pay)

                        Interestingly, the Dogs fare very well (esp. in 2016) & the stats don't even include finals

                        "They [the doggies] were also No 1 on the free kick register when they broke their 62-year premiership drought in 2016 and sit second overall for total frees since 1997.

                        For all home-and away-games this year, Collingwood have again enjoyed the most favourable free kick run. The bottom of the pile in 2019 are Richmond at home, St Kilda away, and the two Sydney teams overall.

                        The report does not include AFL finals matches."

                        Comment

                        • KTigers
                          Senior Player
                          • Apr 2012
                          • 2499

                          #13
                          I don't believe the umpires favour teams. Why would they do that? It would make a bit of a lie of their entire profession.
                          And I'm not saying umpiring is an easy gig or anything either. Stuff happens so fast on the field, I can barely keep up
                          with it watching the replay. But lots of jobs are hard, and that's what they signed up for and get paid for. I guess I think
                          if the umpires are coached to be aware of the crowd influence, then maybe that coaching is not working that well.
                          Because it's not as if visiting teams to Perth suddenly develop a more careless, or "dirty" game style on the flight over
                          there for the last twenty years.

                          Comment

                          • bloodspirit
                            Clubman
                            • Apr 2015
                            • 4448

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Beerman
                            Rightly so. That doesn’t mean umpiring can’t be improved though. Sadly, the rightly maligned rules of the game committee doesn’t seem to consider ease of umpiring when looking at the game.



                            They do actually. Haydn Kennedy discussed this in an interview he did on the AFL site. They are well aware of the problem, but as it is a subconscious bias, it is very hard to do anything about. Umpires are coached in ignoring crowd influence, and to not give “even-uppers”, but the problem persists and I don’t think anyone knows what to do.

                            It’s amusing and frustrating that fans think that only umpires have subconscious bias and that they are completely fair and impartial. . I’ve yet to hear a Swans fans explain the stats by saying “yeah, we’re a very dirty team - that’s why we’ve been so successful”.
                            Brilliant post!
                            All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                            Comment

                            • neilfws
                              Senior Player
                              • Aug 2009
                              • 1834

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Agent 86
                              and sit second overall for total frees since 1997.
                              So they've added frees for and frees against since 1997 and calculated the difference?

                              Then the question is: why start in 1997? Summing over seasons from some arbitrary date is not any kind of rigorous analysis. Seasons vary: there have been several in a row, for example, when the Bulldogs for-against playing away was way below the league average.

                              I've said this in other threads, but I'll say it again. I completely understand why fans seize on the free kick differential. But first, I think they do it in large part, because it's the only information about free kicks that we have. And second, there is very little evidence that winning the free kick count leads to more wins, or even bigger margins, on average.

                              I'm not saying that free kicks aren't a factor. But we don't know from freely-available data when in the game they were awarded, which umpire awarded them or whether the award led to a score. Those are all things I'd like to know!

                              Comment

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