2020 Draft - Pick #3

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  • Bloody Hell
    Senior Player
    • Oct 2006
    • 3085

    Swans chat 2020 Draft - Pick #3

    Who are people hoping we select with Pick #3?

    I do enjoy watching lots of footage in the lead up to the draft, and though there's not much recent footage available on the Vic kids, it looks like it'll be a good draft. These are some of the latest general summaries:

    AFL Draft Power Rankings Key forwards jostling for No. 1 rank

    Cal Twomey's 2020 Phantom Form Guide: September update

    Who do you like?
    22
    Ugle-Hagan
    0%
    1
    MacDonald
    0%
    4
    Hollands
    0%
    7
    Thilthorpe
    0%
    8
    Phillips
    0%
    0
    Other: Please specify
    0%
    2
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.
  • Ralph Dawg
    Senior Player
    • Apr 2018
    • 1729

    #2
    Up until recently, I would've gone for a tall but thinking about recent history, we have struggled at the contest. If Phillips is the second coming of Rowell (or even 90% as good), we should take him. Rowbum and Phillips extracting, Stephens, Blakey and Campbell outside run, Gulden and Papley snapping goals. And a few random big guys (?Buddy) making up the numbers for our next flag!

    Comment

    • Bloody Hell
      Senior Player
      • Oct 2006
      • 3085

      #3
      The projected draft order will most likely follow Adelaide as they have the first pick and seems likely to pick a big man. Most project Ugle-Hagan to go at #1, which would mean giving the pick (and prestige) to Bulldogs as they have priority access to him.

      So the likely selections as I see it:

      Adelaide: MacDonald/Thilthorpe
      Bulldogs: Ugle-Hagan
      Kangaroos: Hollands (? - Best midfielder)
      Swans: ?

      I'm hoping that the Roos go for a midfielder because I really, really want/need a good key forward. I can't recall any draft where the first 3 picks were key forwards, but all 3 look pretty good.

      I suspect that Thilthorpe will be the one to drop to us, which I would be very happy with. They say he is a ruck/KP, but watch his vision. He is a KP. He is incredibly quick, he is kicking snaps on left and right foot and the last kick of his vision has him kicking a banana from 40m out on the boundary. The only reason he's playing ruck is because he's 200cm.

      The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

      Comment

      • Bloody Hell
        Senior Player
        • Oct 2006
        • 3085

        #4
        Originally posted by Ralph Dawg
        Up until recently, I would've gone for a tall but thinking about recent history, we have struggled at the contest. If Phillips is the second coming of Rowell (or even 90% as good), we should take him. Rowbum and Phillips extracting, Stephens, Blakey and Campbell outside run, Gulden and Papley snapping goals. And a few random big guys (?Buddy) making up the numbers for our next flag!
        I think Phillips is the safest bet in the draft. I just wish he was bigger. We seem to have alot of the same type on the list at the moment, adding Parker to Rowbottom.

        Everything I've seen and read for Hollands is a roll of the dice. Considering the position of the club and draft history of the Roos, it'll be interesting to see who they pick - if they go with a sure thing or roll the dice with a KP or Hollands.
        The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

        Comment

        • AB Swannie
          Senior Player
          • Mar 2017
          • 1579

          #5
          I’m no expert but take an interest in reading and watching as much as I can about the draftees. Given the limited information we have due to Covid, I do believe there is a clear top 5 - Ugle-Hagen, McDonald, Hollands, Phillips.

          Obviously, Ugle-Hagen is unavailable. Personally, I’m happy with any of the remaining four. Not to say that they’ll all succeed but based on current evidence, each one has serious talent.

          Thilthorpe is my least desired but this is being picky. A 200cm forward ruck who can kick off both feet I can deal with.

          Comment

          • dejavoodoo44
            Veterans List
            • Apr 2015
            • 8490

            #6
            I think our most pressing positional need is KPF, so I hope that either McDonald or Thilthorpe will be still available at our pick. If not, I'll settle for the best or second best midfielder. Preferably one that spends more time inside, than outside.

            Comment

            • Bloody Hell
              Senior Player
              • Oct 2006
              • 3085

              #7
              The other thing I was going to post was the recent history of high KP picks in drafts and their success:

              2011
              1. Jonathan Patton
              2. Stephen Coniglio

              2013
              1. Tom Boyd
              2. Josh Kelly

              2014
              1. Paddy McCartin
              2. Christian Petracca

              2015
              1. Weitering
              2. Schache
              3. Mills
              4. Oliver

              There's also the converse argument where, despite being highly touted, Brodie Grundy went at #18.
              The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

              Comment

              • SwanSand
                Regular in the Side
                • Aug 2020
                • 523

                #8
                Looking at Riley Thilthorpe vision it’s highly unlikely he will be there by the time our draft position comes.
                Jamara highly touted but apparently Logan’s numbers are reaching stratosphere for a KPF. And Riley looks like he can be an absolute star if he develops well. He has a great kick and vision for a KPF. We would be lucky if we get one from that list. I think we will end up getting Elijah Holland.

                Will Phillips vs Tanner Bruhn? Does everyone think it’s a done deal that Will Phillips is higher rank than Tanner. I thought that Tanner was better albeit on 3 min highlights package !

                Comment

                • Legs Akimbo
                  Grand Poobah
                  • Apr 2005
                  • 2809

                  #9
                  Highlight reels are not a representative sample of games but crikey, Thilthorpe moves well for a guy 200cm.
                  He had observed that people who did lie were, on the whole, more resourceful and ambitious and successful than people who did not lie.

                  Comment

                  • KSAS
                    Senior Player
                    • Mar 2018
                    • 1763

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Bloody Hell
                    The other thing I was going to post was the recent history of high KP picks in drafts and their success:

                    2011
                    1. Jonathan Patton
                    2. Stephen Coniglio

                    2013
                    1. Tom Boyd
                    2. Josh Kelly

                    2014
                    1. Paddy McCartin
                    2. Christian Petracca

                    2015
                    1. Weitering
                    2. Schache
                    3. Mills
                    4. Oliver

                    There's also the converse argument where, despite being highly touted, Brodie Grundy went at #18.
                    You can add Lewis Johnston to that list who we drafted with our Pick 12 in 2008 & was touted a top 10 pick.

                    However Riley Tilthorpe's vision does look very enticing & what we need for KPF looking forward post Buddy/Reid & McCartin as permanent KPD. Even more so if we don't land JD as RFA.

                    Comment

                    • AB Swannie
                      Senior Player
                      • Mar 2017
                      • 1579

                      #11
                      It is true that there have been several KPF flops with high picks. However, in contrast to this, there have also been very, very few dominant KPFs taken lower in the draft. Ben Brown is one of the few lower draft picks to have kicked 60+ goals.

                      Hawkins was F/S and Dixon a zone selection so hard to know where they actually fit but if you think of the other best KPFs currently in the comp, they all went high. Buddy, Lynch, King Bros, Cameron, Josh Kennedy, Naughton, Riewoldt, McKay, Curnow.

                      Big risk taking McDonald or Thilthorpe but big reward and even greater risk relying on lower draft KPFs.

                      Comment

                      • RogueSwan
                        McVeigh for Brownlow
                        • Apr 2003
                        • 4602

                        #12
                        Other: "ROK is hot"
                        The staple "other" option for years. ;-)
                        "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

                        Comment

                        • Markwebbos
                          Veterans List
                          • Jul 2016
                          • 7186

                          #13
                          Does it matter if the “big 3” talls are gone by our pick 4, as seems plausible?

                          Do people think we should take the best available player whatever or are they sold on us getting a KP size one even if that means going further down the pecking order?

                          Comment

                          • dejavoodoo44
                            Veterans List
                            • Apr 2015
                            • 8490

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Markwebbos
                            Does it matter if the “big 3” talls are gone by our pick 4, as seems plausible?

                            Do people think we should take the best available player whatever or are they sold on us getting a KP size one even if that means going further down the pecking order?
                            IIRC, the next the next KPF is a fair way down the list, so if the first three are gone, then it should be best available player.

                            Which is one reason why I'm not totally adverse to making a play for Sideshow Ben. Yes, he does have a silly long run up, and yes, he does get some frees for going down too easily. However, he usually kicks straight at the end of that long run and we could probably harden him up a bit. I also think that he's been harshly treated by North, so he should be keen to prove them wrong. And North have been behaving in quite a desperate manner, so whoever gets him, might end up paying unders. It might even end up a Ted Richards, Craig Bolton type signing.

                            Comment

                            • Markwebbos
                              Veterans List
                              • Jul 2016
                              • 7186

                              #15
                              Given the number of talls in this draft and the need for at least one tall player, I wondered again if we might try and pick swap our way into this draft at the expense of 2021.

                              Comment

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