Expectations for 2021 season

[RogueSwan]

You might have to explain that graph. It’s all just a squiggle to me

Model Stuff: Each data point is calculated by taking a team's offensive rating and dividing it by the other team's defensive rating. For example, in a match between Hawthorn (OFF: 74.23%) and Essendon (DEF: 54.55%), Hawthorn is expected to produce a score 1.36 times higher than average. Each data point is a weighted average, representing 9% of the most recent round, 8.1% of the round before that (91% of 9%), then 7.45%, and so on. Aside from scores for and against, the only adjustment the model makes is for interstate games, where it assumes a 12-point advantage to the home team. This model has correctly tipped 117 winners this year (72.2%).?

Although I don't know how an offence or defence rating is calculated

Source: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...lines.1022679/

[mcs]

Nice write up on fox sports too - interesting talk about how many of our youngsters trending well above expectations: AFL news 2021: Sydney Swans finals odds, predictions, tips, Champion Data, Champion Index

[mcs]

Although I don't know how an offence or defence rating is calculated

Source: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...lines.1022679/

Easiest way to look at it Mark is to think is where your aiming on Squiggle is top right hand direction - you want to be heading up and right, not left and down like LolNORF. Its a relatively decent predictor overall of the general direction teams are heading. I haven't read closely enough into how he does his measures. But the model is pretty good overall and quite interesting.

[RogueSwan]

Easiest way to look at it Mark is to think is where your aiming on Squiggle is top right hand direction - you want to be heading up and right, not left and down like LolNORF. Its a relatively decent predictor overall of the general direction teams are heading. I haven't read closely enough into how he does his measures. But the model is pretty good overall and quite interesting.

So it does reflect what we think has happened so far this year. Our offence has improved dramatically, hence the upward movement, but our defence has dropped (relative to last year), shown as a movement to the left.

[mcs]

So it does reflect what we think has happened so far this year. Our offence has improved dramatically, hence the upward movement, but our defence has dropped (relative to last year), shown as a movement to the left.

Yep - but with the small caveat that pretty much most teams are shifting to the left somewhat. I expect that trend will continue to happen (especially as games from this season replace games from last season in the underlying calculations), but that then the better teams will start going back towards the right as the season goes on.

[O'Reilly Boy]

Essentially we've played a slingshot style so far this year. That's where most of the scoring has come from. We've lost more centre clearances than we've won, and while we've created some turnovers in the midfield, I don't think the tackling pressure has been intense.

Go back to 2012 and we were one of the best slingshot teams in the competition.

So I don't think the strategy is something that Longmire has recently come up with (or an idea brought to the club by Pyke, as some commentators have suggested).

Furthermore, I think the club has recognised the value of speed (especially) and skill in the team for a decade or so. Go back to 2009 draft and we used our first two picks on Rohan and Jetta. The priority players we've had access to (particularly Mitchell, Heeney and Mills) have clouded this to some extent, but where we have had free choice of a first round player, it has invariably been used on player who's chief attribute was thought to be pace: - Lamb (yes, he was described as fast), Towers, Jones, Ling, Florent, Stephens. But the draft isn't perfect, and junior attributes don't always translate. Or players get established and then choose to leave (Jetta, Jones).

I think we are just seeing the green shoots of successive years of trying to build a squad capable of playing a fast, skillful game.

Agreed. It was very noticeable on the weekend that we held a deep forward structure, with Reid, McDonald, and Franklin essentiaily rotating through the goal square. That meant that we had targets for the fast transitions from HB—last year the opposite tended to be the case: all the forward pushed up the ground, and the potential to go forward was lost as the ball had to be held up across HB. The new statue on the mark rule has made it even more important to have that forward structure in place. Taken together, this unleashes the power of the kicking from the back half. Dawson and Campbell are directing absolute darts over long distance, which players like Heeney are lapping up, as well as picking off shorter 45s back into the corridor. A lot of our kicking seems much lower in trajectory across the board. And watching the understanding between Campbell and Gulden is fantastic. I suspect that players like Parker will really benefit from the improved delivery, which will bring them into the game in dangerous ways, often as short inside options for short kicks.

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Looking at the fixture and if the fixture holds true over the course till our bye, I wouldn’t be surprised if we sit 8 wins and 5 losses or even 9 wins and 4 losses. That would be amazing. There is a lot of things that need to go well for that to happen but it is all possible with this group.

I don't think that this is at all unreasonable.

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Just watched it on YouTube, at one stage Gerard looked like this

Interestingly Riewoldt remarked that the Swans had been trying to play to this new game style since halfway through last year.

For sure. The addition of Campbell across HB, and a rotating deep forward structure that holds its shape has helped to deliver on what was a bit underdone last year.

[Aaron]

Many credit our improving attack to Pyke which I won't disagree. However, I feel there are more to it. Despite Stevie was a skillful player, he was far from successful as our forward coach. I do feel part of our improvement this year would be related to his departure. Stevie showed off individual brilliance while McVeigh always emphases Team Work which is well demonstrated in our exciting two rounds.

[graemed]

Indicative of the whole "new" concept with respect to rule changes and how we've adapted to them, was the goal scored by Heeney immediately after an Adelaide behind just after the Quarter Time break.

This goal following Jordan's long kick to the centre, the Franklin contest crumbed by Papley, the kick downfield to a leading Gulden, the handpass over the top to McDonald and the Joe the Goose to Heeney, GOAL!!!

I hope we continue to use Jordan in this vein.

[barry]

What is a "joe the goose".? I've never known.

[stevoswan]

On Footy Classified Kane Cornes was really critical on Norf for overlooking McDonald in the draft, especially after letting Ben Brown go. Even though it's still very early days, he reckons Will Philips better turn out to be a good prefacing McDonald has already shown he'll be special.

Feel sorry for Will Philips to get this sort of pressure without having even played a game yet! Hope he doesn't endure the same as Tambling when Tigers overlooked Buddy.

.....and Jack Watts over Nic Nat.

[dejavoodoo44]

What is a "joe the goose".? I've never known.

Apparently it's a handball over the top of an isolated defender, to an unmarked player near the goals. The origin of the term seems unclear, although this big footy thread offers a few explanations. No idea about the validity of those explanations.

Joe the Goose overload | BigFooty

[TheBloods]

Great piece on THE CHAD on afl site

[i'm-uninformed2]

.....and Jack Watts over Nic Nat.

To be a bit fair, I reckon a player with the combined skills and talent of Nic Nat, Plugger, Buddy and Goodes could have gone to Melbourne as the No1 pick during that period and struggled to make it. It was a shambles of a club from top to bottom and cruelled the careers of a lot of good players.

[Markwebbos]

Essentially we've played a slingshot style so far this year. That's where most of the scoring has come from. We've lost more centre clearances than we've won, and while we've created some turnovers in the midfield, I don't think the tackling pressure has been intense.

Go back to 2012 and we were one of the best slingshot teams in the competition.

So I don't think the strategy is something that Longmire has recently come up with (or an idea brought to the club by Pyke, as some commentators have suggested).

Furthermore, I think the club has recognised the value of speed (especially) and skill in the team for a decade or so. Go back to 2009 draft and we used our first two picks on Rohan and Jetta. The priority players we've had access to (particularly Mitchell, Heeney and Mills) have clouded this to some extent, but where we have had free choice of a first round player, it has invariably been used on player who's chief attribute was thought to be pace: - Lamb (yes, he was described as fast), Towers, Jones, Ling, Florent, Stephens. But the draft isn't perfect, and junior attributes don't always translate. Or players get established and then choose to leave (Jetta, Jones).

I think we are just seeing the green shoots of successive years of trying to build a squad capable of playing a fast, skillful game.

lots of things have come together this year to make the Swans feel so un Swans like.

we’ve reached a tipping point in the number of quick, highly skilled players in the side. For example where it used to be Malceski or bust for a defender with foot skills, we now have Rampe, Dawson, Campbell, Lloyd (ok) and Gould waiting in the wings.

Ditto “outside” players. I remember dreading the loss of Jones and we’ve now got too many to fit in the side.

Same is true of the inside mid brigade. And that’s got a long way to go yet.

We now have the cattle to play differently.

I also reckon that although we did start to change last year, Don Pyke has fast tracked and deepened that.

Don’t take my word for it

Pyke's COVID break: Why John called Don for coach gig

Captain Josh Kennedy agreed, highlighting the Swans' improved ball movement throughout pre-season.

"The way he's able to see the game and dumb it down for us players, it's fantastic," Kennedy said. "He's just brought something different to our game plan."

[Ludwig]

Liz is essentially right about the history of the slingshot, and Longmire has often tried the quick movement game, but with limited success. The secret to success is that you need both speed and kicking skill, because once you run your distance you have to dispose of the ball somehow. In recent times we haven't been able to string together enough effective disposals to get the ball to goal kicking position. Richmond has succeeded by a frenetic attack on the player and the ball and moving the ball forward at all cost. It's been the synchronicity of their attack that has been the game changer. WB have had success by running hard and throwing the ball while shielding the vision of the umpire.

What has changed for the Swans has been the sheer number of players with both speed and skill that have come to the club through the last few drafts and have also been able to have an impact. I wouldn't call what we are doing a slingshot. The difference is now the quick ball movement permeates the whole team, so the ball is more likely than not to find itself in the hands of a player that can both run with it and then kick it long and accurately down field. Gone are the days when we would have 3 effective disposals, but just when we seem ready to get the ball to goal kicking distance, we have a turnover.

What has been impressive with the Swans this year is not the speed or skill, but the fact that we have both happening together. We drafted for it and got what we asked for. It's party time for our list managers.