Umpiring: the good, the bad and the ugly

[Markwebbos]

Clouds are independent bodies of water molecules that completely ignore what any human says to them. A bit like umpires.

Thanks

[Matty10]

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

Spot on. You can’t look at the final margin and then the free kick count to get an accurate reflection in that game. Teams take risks when they are behind late in the game that they may not have otherwise taken. It should also be taken into account that the missed below the knees free kick to Jack may well have contributed or led to the later missed free and injury on Hannebery.

Having said all that, we don’t know how the Bulldogs would have responded to a game impacted by more reasonable umpiring. They may well have won. We were just robbed of the opportunity to see that play out.

[neilfws]

Thanks Neil, I really enjoy your contributions.

Likewise Meg!

[Mel_C]

In the VFL days, poor umpiring performances would be punished with a move to one of the country leagues for a week or two for penance before returning to the big time in Melbourne.....leading to the phrase "He'll be up the country next week!" when referring to an umpire who was having a bad day. Alas, this wouldn't work in a national league.

I remember something from a few years back when we played Carlton at Marvel stadium...(I think it was called Telstra Dome back then). Razor was umpiring and he was giving frees to Carlton, especifically to Judd. At half time as the umpires were coming off the ground near where I was sitting, I yelled out to Razor that he would be umpiring the Reserves the next week. He took it well and gave me a smirk.

[Blood Fever]

I remember something from a few years back when we played Carlton at Marvel stadium...(I think it was called Telstra Dome back then). Razor was umpiring and he was giving frees to Carlton, especifically to Judd. At half time as the umpires were coming off the ground near where I was sitting, I yelled out to Razor that he would be umpiring the Reserves the next week. He took it well and gave me a smirk.

Of course. He was the centre of attention at that moment.

[joeykanga]

Thanks

Maybe he means that they disappear and you’re left shouting at yourself and then they reappear again magically like Ray Chamberlain ..
I swear I need counselling ..getting flashbacks just seeing him in tonight’s non swans match

[MattW]

Here it is, a thread all about umpiring.

Go nuts!!

I reckon it will give the Tippett-thread™? a run for it’s money

Thanks for this Mark. I doubt I'll ever read this thread, but I'm very glad it exists.

[Markwebbos]

Thanks for this Mark. I doubt I'll ever read this thread, but I'm very glad it exists.

Likewise

[bennyfabulous]

@@@@ing Chamberlain again this weekend. Rubbish umpire & rubbish human. I can defintiely see the need for this thread for me this week. (Particularly as my wife is an Essendon supporter. My "@@@@ umpiring" outbursts won't be agreed with this week)

[Legs Akimbo]

Ok so reading footballistics...

On umpiring bias...

"It means that umpire bias accounts for approximately 40% of all home-ground advantage in the AFL. It is difficult to imagine any other single factor – whether that be the benefit of familiarity with the venue, or the rigours of travel faced by the visitors – could exceed an effect of that size. Moskowitz and Wertheim’s hypothesis that umpire bias is the most significant contributor to home advantage therefore rings true for the Australian game. That is not to say, of course, that umpires in any way intend to favour home teams. But perhaps it is time for the league to at least acknowledge the noise of affirmation, so that it can train its officials to deal with it."

I note that intuition is there is team bias. The league table of frees for and against would seem to support this. The book doesn't that.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html

The for against ratio should be a normal distribution...

I'm going to look at this in more detail on the weekend.

[Faunac8]

Ok so reading footballistics...

On umpiring bias...

"It means that umpire bias accounts for approximately 40% of all home-ground advantage in the AFL. It is difficult to imagine any other single factor – whether that be the benefit of familiarity with the venue, or the rigours of travel faced by the visitors – could exceed an effect of that size. Moskowitz and Wertheim’s hypothesis that umpire bias is the most significant contributor to home advantage therefore rings true for the Australian game. That is not to say, of course, that umpires in any way intend to favour home teams. But perhaps it is time for the league to at least acknowledge the noise of affirmation, so that it can train its officials to deal with it."

I note that intuition is there is team bias. The league table of frees for and against would seem to support this. The book doesn't that.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html

The for against ratio should be a normal distribution...

I'm going to look at this in more detail on the weekend.

I think that the fact that only one team doesn’t finish in front for frees for at home games and only one current team finishes in front for frees for during away games indicates that there is some unconscious umpire bias created by the crowd.
Having said that however it’s hard as a supporter not to think some umpires just don’t like us ????

[barry]

Ok so reading footballistics...

On umpiring bias...

"It means that umpire bias accounts for approximately 40% of all home-ground advantage in the AFL. It is difficult to imagine any other single factor – whether that be the benefit of familiarity with the venue, or the rigours of travel faced by the visitors – could exceed an effect of that size. Moskowitz and Wertheim’s hypothesis that umpire bias is the most significant contributor to home advantage therefore rings true for the Australian game. That is not to say, of course, that umpires in any way intend to favour home teams. But perhaps it is time for the league to at least acknowledge the noise of affirmation, so that it can train its officials to deal with it."

I note that intuition is there is team bias. The league table of frees for and against would seem to support this. The book doesn't that.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/frees.html

The for against ratio should be a normal distribution...

I'm going to look at this in more detail on the weekend.

Wouldnt the hub games last year and this year, played at neutral venues prove or disprove crowd influence umpire bias.

I think its a relatively small factor. But I think umpires have teams they are bias too.

[longmile]

There is home ground advantage and then there is AFL/VLF/media bias

[cherub]

How to you estimate "home ground" advantage when a Melbourne-based team can be an "away" team at Docklands or the MCG? Even if they have more crowd tickets, they can be shared with rels and friends so the crowd disproportion is less significant than for interstate teams and games.

[Goal Sneak]

I haven't seen any mention of the goal review which resulted in the original "touched off the boot" call from the field umpire being overruled.

Mills had said he touched it, even "Zaccy" gestured to his teammates that it was touched. Watching the replays, there was no definitive evidence that suggested that they should overturn the decision, yet they did.

I haven't seen the video umpire do this before, did I miss something?