Round 23: the other games. The prelude to finals and the prelude to Mad Monday.

[KSAS]

You're mixing up 1986 and 1987.
Round 22 1986: Fitzroy defeated Sydney by 10 points at Victoria Park. Fitzroy booked an elimination final spot, Sydney had a qualifying final.
Round 22 1987: Sydney defeated Fitzroy by 8 points at Princes Park. Fitzroy did not make the finals in 1987.

Thanks for the correction Thundershaker. I went to both our finals in 86 losing to Carlton & Fitzroy in close games, heartbreaking, particulaly the Fitzroy game. But it was definitely R22 1987 the exciting final round ouccured.

[i'm-uninformed2]

And they actually have a surprisingly strong draft hand. The big footy draft chart has them with the most draft points.

Resource - 2021 Provisional Draft Order - live based on current ladder! | BigFooty

Which makes me a little bit hesitant, to declare the dynasty truly over.

I don't think their window is closed (as opposed to a dynasty).

They have a lot of good young to mid-20s talent - Balta, Bolton, Vlastuin, Short, Rioli, Soldo, Dow, Nank, Chol, CCJ, Graham, Ross, Stack, etc.

I don't think they win the flag next year, but I can easily see them back in the eight.

[barry]

And they actually have a surprisingly strong draft hand. The big footy draft chart has them with the most draft points.

Resource - 2021 Provisional Draft Order - live based on current ladder! | BigFooty

Which makes me a little bit hesitant, to declare the dynasty truly over.

They would have to trade out those picks for players to keep the current dynasty going. There is only a year or two left in the stars, and a new draftee won't be hitting his straps by then.

[Thunder Shaker]

With Adelaide getting on top of North, it means that Collingwood will finish second last. Which is quite something, when most experts had them making the eight.

Although from our perspective, the drawback with that, is that GWS have their first round pick. So, it's another pick two for them. To go with all their other previous pointy end picks. Though I suppose it might actually end up as pick four, if North bid on Daicos and Darcy.

I correctly predicted Collingwood's slide based solely on their disastrous recruiting last year.

Experts are surprisingly poor at picking the ladder at the start of the season. Many of them simply rearrange the teams in the top eight. They aren't worthy of the tag "experts" for one reason: they ignore the fact that the final eight will change about two or three teams from one season to the next.

I have remarked on this before here: 13th March 2021

So if you want to outperform the experts in predicting the ladder, take the previous season's final eight, choose two or three of those teams and exclude them, and choose three teams to replace them with. Your choice will not be worse. When I did this at the start of the year, I got five teams right (Port, Geelong, Melbourne, Bulldogs, Brisbane).

[i'm-uninformed2]

I got Richmond and WCE wrong. I got Collingwood right - though most thought they'd fall so no great insight there. I did get St Kilda right, as thought they were like Carlton in overrating their list. I didn't quite think we'd make the 8. And Essendon have surprised most people.

[bloodspirit]

Well. What a fabulous round of footy. With near perfect results - could hardly have been better.

Apart from the brilliant footy and dramatic results, things I liked:

1. Port beat Bulldogs, secured home final. Step 1 to knocking Bulldogs out of top 4.
2. Hawthorn drew with Richmond. This (a) moved them Hawks up the ladder and gave them a worse draft pick; (b) meant they finished undefeated in their last 5 games and underscored what a dumb move it has been sacking Alistair Clarkson; (c) made sure Richmond didn't play finals. Only thing better would have been if Hawks had won. Incidentally, I'm warming to Jeff Kennett. His legacy is brilliant we for non-Hawks fans: first the 'Kennett curse'. And now sacking their best ever coach while agreeing to keep his salary in their soft cap. I hope he can linger longer at Hawthorn than Clarko did and send them back to the stone ages with an even longer lasting odour.
3. We won comfortably. No fresh injuries but worrisome that Mills is out. Melican and COR did pretty well down back although Fox is stiff.
4. Brisbane beat WC by just enough. Moved them into the top 4. And step 2 of knocking the Bulldogs out of the 4 ticked off.
5. Melbourne beat Geelong. If we can't win, the Demons are my next preference. And my tip. Port and Brisbane probably my 3rd and 4th preferences - so I'm glad they finished top 4 too. The team I least want to win the flag of all the teams remaining is Geelong. Giving the Cats an away QF, and denting their confidence, is great. The only thing better than beating Geelong in week 2 of finals and knocking them out this year will be winning the whole thing.
6. Collingwood lost. Always good - but even better when it reduces them to second last on the ladder AND they don't hold their first round draft pick. Doesn't get much better.

So much to celebrate!

[Markwebbos]

Interesting hypothetical. If we end up playing the Cats in week 2 of finals, would they want to play us at Kardinia Park or somewhere less favourable to us?

[bloodspirit]

Interesting hypothetical. If we end up playing the Cats in week 2 of finals, would they want to play us at Kardinia Park or somewhere less favourable to us?

Chris Scott already declared that he wanted to sacrifice home ground advantage to play in front of fans if that was the choice. They're scared of us. And they should be.

[Ludwig]

Chris Scott already declared that he wanted to sacrifice home ground advantage to play in front of fans if that was the choice. They're scared of us. And they should be.

Probably afraid of GWS. We beat them by a fluke, but the Giants crushed them with arguably the weakest team they put out this year.

[Hotpotato]

Wonder why Gerard doesn’t give an update on Robbo ?
Is it just a health issue or did they (eventually ) have a massive tiff ?
Robbo asked questions and went where Gerard would not .

[Aprilbr]

Wonder why Gerard doesn’t give an update on Robbo ?
Is it just a health issue or did they (eventually ) have a massive tiff ?
Robbo asked questions and went where Gerard would not .

It sounds like serious health issues. The online media is very quiet on what it is. All the best to Robbo for a full recovery. I miss seeing him on 360 as he is so passionate for the game.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Wonder why Gerard doesn’t give an update on Robbo ?
Is it just a health issue or did they (eventually ) have a massive tiff ?
Robbo asked questions and went where Gerard would not .

Maybe it's as simple as Robbo doesn't want it public.

Hope he recovers. I love the odd couple. And Robbo has his detractors, but he can be both a wonderful writer, and a passionate fan of the game.

(Plus, he always rates highly for being one of the first and loudest defenders of Goodes).

[Buzz13]

Interesting hypothetical. If we end up playing the Cats in week 2 of finals, would they want to play us at Kardinia Park or somewhere less favourable to us?

If it's sydney v Geelong in 2nd week of finals it's been confirmed it will likely be at UTas in Launceston again. Not a bad result for us if that's the case, which would favour us having played at the ground the week before and no travel.

[Markwebbos]

If it's sydney v Geelong in 2nd week of finals it's been confirmed it will likely be at UTas in Launceston again. Not a bad result for us if that's the case, which would favour us having played at the ground the week before and no travel.

I don't think the squad stays in Tassie after the game. I think they fly back to VIC and then fly down again the following week... It's not exactly a long flight

[Buzz13]

I don't think the squad stays in Tassie after the game. I think they fly back to VIC and then fly down again the following week... It's not exactly a long flight

No teams are allowed back to Vic apparently. AFL are in talks with hospitality TAS to allow winner of gws/Sydney to stay on in Launceston to play the 2nd week of finals in Launceston (should Geelong lose). Announcement to come tomorrow if it's allowed.