Round 12 vs Melbourne Demons @ MCG

[Goal Sneak]

The First Crack (FoxFooty) panel looked at this last night. I can't remember exactly, but I think Melbourne kicked 0.5 from turnover and we were 5.something.

David King also talked about net metres gained from turnover. He suggested that any team with a positive net metres gained over a match will more often than not win. If a team achieves 500m net metres gained from turnover, they have had a sensational game. On Saturday, the Swans achieve >1,300m.

My main impression from watching the replay (admittedly mostly 2nd and 4th quarters) is that our lads played far from a perfect game, at least in terms of kicking. They were trying high risk kicks into the corridor but a lot of these didn't come off. So it's not as if we played the game of our lives to win that one. Still plenty more to get right.

Another thing highlighted on First Crack was that Melbourne have only played three teams in the current top eight, and have lost two out of three. So while the story all season (until now) is that the Dees were just strolling towards another premiership, they've not performed (yet) against the teams that matter.

By comparison, the Dockers are currently best against top eight sides (4-2). We are 2-2.

Thanks liz. The net metres gained stat provides a much more accurate depiction of what I was trying to establish. That's even more dominant than I was thinking.

[707]

When thinking about Melbourne's season, always remember we have their first round pick, if they win the flag, as has been the talk recently, that will be pick 19 (Ashcroft possible F/S to Brisbane in first few picks). To our advantage that they finish further down.

I am however happy for us to turn our first rounder into pick 19 :-)

[Faunac8]

Thanks liz. The net metres gained stat provides a much more accurate depiction of what I was trying to establish. That's even more dominant than I was thinking.

Pressure will create possession which inevitably leads to scoring opportunities.
No surprise that we were so dominant in that metric given how often we seemed to be looking for play on options when we gained contested possession.
Of course they don’t all pay off but then again no risk no reward
Melbourne were shell shocked and couldn’t answer our pressure after the first quarter.
It was lovely to witness in the flesh.

[waswan]

The First Crack (FoxFooty) panel looked at this last night. I can't remember exactly, but I think Melbourne kicked 0.5 from turnover and we were 5.something.

David King also talked about net metres gained from turnover. He suggested that any team with a positive net metres gained over a match will more often than not win. If a team achieves 500m net metres gained from turnover, they have had a sensational game. On Saturday, the Swans achieve >1,300m.

My main impression from watching the replay (admittedly mostly 2nd and 4th quarters) is that our lads played far from a perfect game, at least in terms of kicking. They were trying high risk kicks into the corridor but a lot of these didn't come off. So it's not as if we played the game of our lives to win that one. Still plenty more to get right.

Another thing highlighted on First Crack was that Melbourne have only played three teams in the current top eight, and have lost two out of three. So while the story all season (until now) is that the Dees were just strolling towards another premiership, they've not performed (yet) against the teams that matter.

By comparison, the Dockers are currently best against top eight sides (4-2). We are 2-2.

Melb rarely put teams away, last year they beat us by 2 goals, we never really threatened them but its still only 2 goals. They are like a Ross Lyon team, your always a chance and a good 10 minutes can stun them.

Having said that, May is head and shoulders the best defender in the comp, what Gawn did in the last qtr with intercept marking, he does all game.

[KTigers]

My understanding is they thought the risk was he'd go in that pick 20-22 range, where Geelong (who ultimately bid on him with their next pick) and Melbourne, who had two picks, were placed. That was line ball on a deficit so they would have taken him in a heartbeat.

Our real piece of luck in that draft actually came in the final game of 2020 when Papley kicked 2.5 against Geelong and we lost by a goal. He kicks straight, we win the game, Hawks finish below us on the ladder and bid on Campbell - and there's no Logan McDonald. God bless ya Paps!

I think it's safe to assume Tom wasn't "tanking".

[Mountain Man]

What, Tom giving up 5 chances to celebrate - not likely!

[Nico]

Ha! I missed that at first but yes - amazing. When I looked again, you can actually seeing him running through the middle as Chad sends the ball forward. How he got there so quick after the spoil I have no idea but he does seem to have preternatural running abilities for a 19 year old, let alone all his other attributes.

I wonder if this is a bit of a distinction with Campbell. I know he played midfield as a junior but there is a big difference between doing that, and having an AFL midfield engine. This is not to knock Campbell, as most players take a couple of years to develop one. For example, as good as Chad was at times last year and as much as he had explosive power in bursts, his ability to play permanent mid and cover the ground has taken a quantum leap forward again this year.

Anyway, it's all a nice reminder we have a very special player on our hands in Errol. I said on Saturday night, long may the footy gods be kind to Logan. I hope they're just as kind to Errol.

Who would know on Campbell. I doubt it has anything to do with his tank. They seem determined to make him a defender, which he is not. He is hard at it, courageous, quick and a great kick. Why would you waste his talent in the back pocket. Maybe if he was to play midfield our atrocious centre bounce stats might improve. Remember they tried to make Hewett into a HBF; fail. So remind me how he is going at Carlton, and by the way when he went back on the ball all of a sudden we played much better footy. They tried to make Kennedy a HBF; fail. That was very puzzling because he is slower than a Sydney wet week. It seems to be the Swans preferred grave yard position.

[TheBloods]

Papley needs to stop spending it before he earns it . And Heeney needs to put the newspaper down . They are fantastic talents but they are stuffing up the basics , could 've cost us the other night . Might be harsh but they are leaders . Mid 20s now . We have a young team , its on these types to be setting the standard every week , enough of the cameos

[Nico]

Speaking of Errol, I wonder if the club knew he was this outstanding before he was drafted and how much they were prepared to go into deficit to match a bid if it had come much higher than the eventual steal at pick 32.

I'm glad they matched because based on exposed form, and I might be forgetting a player or two here?, Errol currently looks the best player of the 2020 ND?

The spotlight was on Campbell and Hawthorn were circling, plus 16 other clubs would have taken him in a heartbeat. But we don't appear to rate Campbell. I would suggest some clubs are already asking his manager of his availability.

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Papley needs to stop spending it before he earns it . And Heeney needs to put the newspaper down . They are fantastic talents but they are stuffing up the basics , could 've cost us the other night . Might be harsh but they are leaders . Mid 20s now . We have a young team , its on these types to be setting the standard every week , enough of the cameos

Couple of handy goals by Paps. He hit the post in the third quarter which if it went through one could argue it was goal of the year. His goal assist to Logan wasn't too shabby. Produced the goods when it was needed. Heeney has a player sitting on him and is double and tripled teamed in marking contests up forward.

[stevoswan]

The spotlight was on Campbell and Hawthorn were circling, plus 16 other clubs would have taken him in a heartbeat. But we don't appear to rate Campbell. I would suggest some clubs are already asking his manager of his availability.

Comedy gold Nico!



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Papley needs to stop spending it before he earns it . And Heeney needs to put the newspaper down . They are fantastic talents but they are stuffing up the basics , could 've cost us the other night . Might be harsh but they are leaders . Mid 20s now . We have a young team , its on these types to be setting the standard every week , enough of the cameos

What 'basics' did Paps stuff up? I must have missed those.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Speaking of Errol, I wonder if the club knew he was this outstanding before he was drafted and how much they were prepared to go into deficit to match a bid if it had come much higher than the eventual steal at pick 32.

I'd be surprised if the club didn't, I distinctly remember some RWOers wanting to draft him in 2019 - the year before he was eligable. It was a piece of folly that the other clubs didn't rate him.

[RogueSwan]

I don't think Paps is stuffing anything up but it did seem his hands weren't as "clean" as usual, mainly with his pick-ups. That could be down to a combination of getting back to "game speed" after missing the first two months and playing against very good team?

[BRS328]

Perhaps they are trying to develop the defensive side of his game for the future. Seems to have worked with Callum Mills

[Nico]

I don't think Paps is stuffing anything up but it did seem his hands weren't as "clean" as usual, mainly with his pick-ups. That could be down to a combination of getting back to "game speed" after missing the first two months and playing against very good team?

A bit of rain probably didn't help.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Coaches votes

Gawn 10
Reid 6
McDonald 4
P McCartin 4
Mills 4
Viney 2

My guess is Reid got 3 from each, Mills 2 from each (simply because he was too good to be ignored by both), and then the two coaches split between 4 points for McDonald and McCartin. Could be another combo, but that's my guess anyway.

Four Swans poll votes from the coaches