The final countdown - 3 games remaining

[Goal Sneak]

What a great time it is to be a Swans supporter, still well and truly in the hunt this season but no lofty, immediate expectations. The run home does not look too daunting and the boys should be confident.

So exciting to see all these young kids coming through and learning week by week. Play well over the next 8 rounds and we get a great opportunity to have a real crack.

Go The Mighty Swans!

[Maltopia]

I played around with it last night and ran a scenario where we beat Freo and lose two games....we make the top four (even with two losses) with Freo out in P5.

Swans v Dockers is massive for both sides. Everything leads to Perth.

We are about to drop to 8th after our loss today against the Bombers, with the Pies to go 4 points ahead if they hold their lead vs GC, and Richmond will be on equal points but higher percentage if they take care of the Eagles.

Losing only one more game from here (and it not being against Fremantle) looks unlikely with our up and down efforts.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Love it.

I think the main thing is having no more 'brain explosion' losses, and locking in the wins against the Bombers, Crows (with the special wish on this one of rubbing The Rat's nose in it, figuratively and literally), GWS, Kangas and Saints.

Why did I tempt fate

[Kafka's Ghost]

Looking at the overall draw, we might scrape into 8th spot with 13 wins. Not sure if it’s worth it or not at this stage. But it’s always valuable getting finals experience into a young squad, I guess.


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[bloodspirit]

Looking at the overall draw, we might scrape into 8th spot with 13 wins. Not sure if it’s worth it or not at this stage. But it’s always valuable getting finals experience into a young squad, I guess.

Geez. That's pessimistic. I still think we're a 20% chance to finish top 4. We have to beat Freo and lose no more than one other (preferably not against Collingwood) - as others have already pointed out. If we can sustain how we played last night, that's absolutely doable against our opposition. Even if we don't keep it up for every match, it's still doable. But next week is critical. Cheer hard next week you WA Swans! A real 8 point cracker.

[Maltopia]

We can make the top 4 on percentage without beating Freo if we win all our games and Freo drop three games, such as vs St Kilda (they are trailing at half time), their rematch vs Melbourne, vs Richmond away and vs Bulldogs away.

Be stoked if we can win 5 of our final 6.

[Kafka's Ghost]

Geez. That's pessimistic. I still think we're a 20% chance to finish top 4. We have to beat Freo and lose no more than one other (preferably not against Collingwood) - as others have already pointed out. If we can sustain how we played last night, that's absolutely doable against our opposition. Even if we don't keep it up for every match, it's still doable. But next week is critical. Cheer hard next week you WA Swans! A real 8 point cracker.

Fair point. I posted that in the gloom of last week’s loss to Essendon. Whilst our best is truly awesome, our worst is bottom 4 stuff. If we can maintain something close to Friday night’s level, without the big drop-off, we could achieve anything. Just not sure if we have the maturity across the board to do it yet.


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[Thunder Shaker]

This season is a very even season. Every top 8 side has losses they would prefer to forget.

Geelong: Lost to Hawthorn and St Kilda.
Melbourne: Lost to four top eight sides. No losses to sides currently outside the top eight.
Fremantle: Lost to St Kilda and Gold Coast.
Brisbane: Lost to Hawthorn and Essendon.
Carlton: Lost to Gold Coast and St Kilda.
Collingwood: Lost to West Coast and Western Bulldogs.
Sydney: Lost to Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Essendon.
Richmond: Lost to St Kilda, Adelaide and Gold Coast.

Sydney has four losses to sides outside the top eight, more than any other current top eight side. However, that's balanced by a good record against the top eight sides, including wins over both Geelong and Melbourne.

If we were more consistent, we could win this. Learn from the losses, lads.

[MattW]

Just did a ladder predictor:
- win every game = 4th
- win every game bar next week v Fremantle = 5th

[Maltopia]

Just did a ladder predictor:
- win every game = 4th
- win every game bar next week v Fremantle = 5th

We can finish 4th (on percentage) even if we lose vs Fremantle if the Lions drop two games. Or without percentage if they drop three.

Lions apparently have COVID concerns so next week vs GWS is no certainty. They then have a derby vs the raging Suns, plus games vs Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne.

[bloodspirit]

Melbourne also not looking rock solid for top 4 - they have a tough run home and haven't been in great form.

Geelong is the only team pretty much guaranteed to finish top 4 (very likely top 2).

[barry]

We don't want to finish outside top 4 again like last year. Too many good teams in the bottom half of the 8. Go swans

[Danzar]

Best prospect to steal fourth from is Dees from here. Freo has the better math (they only need to lose one whereas Dees need to lose two) but Dees have the much harder run home. And Freo have two games they could win with a big margin and percentage boost. Percentage is the key consideration for all teams regardless. We're ahead of Freo but behind Dees on percentage. We need to nail a big win to open up both options. If we win the remaining five on tight margins, we can't overtake Dees and we run the risk of Freo still taking fourth even if they drop a game.

Freo next five
Tigers - likely win but could be a danger game for them, Tigers will have a lot to play (and atone) for.
Dees - likely win
Dogs - win
Eagles - percentage win
Giants - percentage win

Dees next five (assumes win in today's game v Port
Dogs - win
Freo - danger game, likely loss
Pies - danger game, likely win
Blues - danger game, likely win
Lions - danger game, likely loss

Swans next five
Crows - percentage win
Giants - win
North - percentage win
Pies - danger game, likely win
Saints - win

[Maltopia]

Best prospect to steal fourth from is Dees from here. Freo has the better math (they only need to lose one whereas Dees need to lose two) but Dees have the much harder run home. And Freo have two games they could win with a big margin and percentage boost. Percentage is the key consideration for all teams regardless. We're ahead of Freo but behind Dees on percentage. We need to nail a big win to open up both options. If we win the remaining five on tight margins, we can't overtake Dees and we run the risk of Freo still taking fourth even if they drop a game.

Freo next five
Tigers - likely win but could be a danger game for them, Tigers will have a lot to play (and atone) for.
Dees - likely win
Dogs - win
Eagles - percentage win
Giants - percentage win

Dees next five (assumes win in today's game v Port
Dogs - win
Freo - danger game, likely loss
Pies - danger game, likely win
Blues - danger game, likely win
Lions - danger game, likely loss

Swans next five
Crows - percentage win
Giants - win
North - percentage win
Pies - danger game, likely win
Saints - win

I think Brisbane is just as likely as the Dees to slip out of the top four.

They have a derby vs Gold Coast Suns with multiple team changes post COVID. Then away vs Richmond who will be desperately fighting to stay in the eight.

Also have Carlton, Saints and then Melbourne.

If they drop two and we win all of ours, we overtake them. They could also lose three of their final five.

[Danzar]

I think Brisbane is just as likely as the Dees to slip out of the top four.

They have a derby vs Gold Coast Suns with multiple team changes post COVID. Then away vs Richmond who will be desperately fighting to stay in the eight.

Also have Carlton, Saints and then Melbourne.

If they drop two and we win all of ours, we overtake them. They could also lose three of their final five.

True, but my thinking is their real challenge comes towards the end when they'll have players back, Blues and Dees are both home games, and they have a substantial percentage lead on us. But agree, still a possibility.