The final countdown - 3 games remaining

[SCGonasunnyday]

Someone help me please - what is the better result for us in this game???

[liz]

Someone help me please - what is the better result for us in this game???

Depends whether you want to maximise upside opportunity or minimise downside risk. If you are confident that the Swans can (will) win all three of their remaining games - which includes beating Collingwood next week - a win to Collingwood over Melbourne opens up the chance of us finishing second. That would still need Melbourne to lose one more game of its remaining two (they play Carlton, at the MCG but with Carlton desperately needing one more win this year to assure itself of finals, and then Brisbane at the Gabba) or would require the Swans to win our remaining games by such a margin that we make up around 5% in percentage. That's not impossible but not likely either, given our last two games are against very good (Pies) to decent (St Kilda) opposition.

If Melbourne beat Collingwood, it almost certainly puts second place out of reach, but possibly leaves open the possibility of a top four finish even if we lose to St Kilda in the final round, but do beat the Pies next week. I haven't gone back to the ladder predictor to work out how likely that is.

[Markwebbos]

I also wonder if we would rather play the Pies coming off a win or a loss?

I think a loss would burst their bubble. And point to how we might beat them next week.

[Maltopia]

Someone help me please - what is the better result for us in this game???

Overall, we can finish 2nd on the ladder, if Melbourne and Collingwood each lose one game more than we do in the final three weeks, and Fremantle doesn't win more games than we do.

Lots of possibilities, but in summary, if the Pies win against Melbourne, we can finish 2nd on the ladder (if we win our final three and overtake Melbourne's percentage, which will take a hit if they lose tonight). If Melbourne wins vs the Pies, we could still finish 2nd if we win our final three games (which includes overtaking the Pies by percentage) and Melbourne loses to Carlton or Brisbane in the last two rounds.

If we were to drop our game vs the Pies (but win vs North and the Saints)5, then we probably would prefer if Melbourne wins tonight as we will finish 3rd still if the Pies beat Carlton, and Fremantle don't get three wins. But if the Pies beat Melbourne tonight and we lose to the Pies as well, then we are are fighting for 4th or 5th with Melbourne (depending on the Dockers results).

So overall, I think we want the Pies to win, and then we need to take care of our final three games.

To top it all off, we play the very last game of the regular season, so we will know then if we need to beat St Kilda and by how much, to secure 2nd or 3rd spot.

Edit: I hadn't refreshed the page before posting, and I see now that Liz has pretty much already said everything that I said!

[Maltopia]

If Melbourne beat Collingwood, it almost certainly puts second place out of reach, but possibly leaves open the possibility of a top four finish even if we lose to St Kilda in the final round, but do beat the Pies next week. I haven't gone back to the ladder predictor to work out how likely that is.

We would need them to lose vs Carlton (unlikely) or Brisbane at the GABBA (possible), and for us to win our final three, and overtake their percentage (which will be helped by that loss to Brisbane that we would need).

[bandwagon]

It's very difficult to change a decades-long ingrained behavior, so I think I'll stick with hoping the Pies lose :-)

Either way i hope it is a cracking match, Collingwood have been very entertaining recently.

[Maltopia]

Collingwood will be up for a fight next week, and St Kilda are playing really well tonight. Can't take our final three games for granted at all.

[MattW]

If we lose to Collingwood, the only way we finish top 4 is if:
- Freo lose to either West Coast or GWS
- Brisbane lose next week to St Kilda
- Melbourne lose next week to Carlton.

Naturally, none of those are likely.

[bloodspirit]

Yeah, but if we only need one of those things to happen it's not so bad. Would be a different story if we needed them all to happen.

[MattW]

Yeah, but if we only need one of those things to happen it's not so bad. Would be a different story if we needed them all to happen.

Yes, the paras in my post are separated by 'or'.

[Maltopia]

If we lose to Collingwood, the only way we finish top 4 is if:
- Freo lose to either West Coast or GWS
- Brisbane lose next week to St Kilda
- Melbourne lose next week to Carlton.

Naturally, none of those are likely.

But we can also make top four with a draw vs the Pies and then a win against the Saints given Brisbane and Melbourne have to play each other.

[KSAS]

Looking at the full ladder we have the 2nd highest Points For (1902) with Brisbane topping at 2009. Have the 4th lowest Points Against (1492) behind Melbourne 1352, Freo 1370 & Geelong 1383. We are matching Geelong in regards to all round performance who have equal 3rd highest Points For 1896 (along with Richmond).

Collingwood is amazingly 2nd on the Ladder with lowest percentage in the top 8 with 106.3%. Even the Bulldogs in 10th spot have a higher percentage (107.9%).

2022 AFL Ladder - Zero Hanger

[Buzz13]

But we can also make top four with a draw vs the Pies and then a win against the Saints given Brisbane and Melbourne have to play each other.

We could make top 4 if we only win one of our 2 games - the most likely scenario is if saints beat lions at marvel, then lions beat dee's at the gabba. Both possible however odds more likely to finish 5th.

[SwanSand]

I think we will be in the Top 4
The more pertinent question for me is what is the Achilles heel for us to be Top 4 or to reach the Grand final.
Geelong look the best playing a much better brand of football with good overall offence, midfield and defence but even they looked circumspect in the second Quarter last week. With excellent double tagging by St Kilda.
Melbourne have their game back last couple of weeks and if they continue on this trajectory for the next 2 weeks, they are formidable. However, they are not as in sync as they were in defence and or in linking into f50 as last year. Remember they were losing that grand final till half time. Dogs were poor in that third quarter.
Collingwood are built on character and pressure and efficiency in f50 but all can be undone by one average quarter as they are barely beating teams despite their best efforts. They are giving opposition enough looks it is just if the opposition teams are able to keep making right decisions getting into their defensive 50 and how the opposition structure behind the ball.
Brisbane are offensively good but you shut down a few players in the middle and front, they fall apart. They are defensively a mess.
Fremantle are too dependent on their defence and even if they won against the dogs, their ball movement is predictable and poor. With Taberner down, they may not have enough of a forward line.
Richmond are playing what suits them - chaos football and are probably better at the contest then they were in their premiership years but their defence is average. And they are heavily dependent on all their stars playing. They have the personnel to cause problems in the finals.

Our problems include
Contested possessions and contest work - which we have fixed last few weeks but may need to still get even better in the finals. When Essendon got hold of us they were great at transitioning from Contest and getting ball out and then efficient with their ball use.
Ruck work and Clearance - I think we have to probably go up a notch with our Ruck work if we were to win a final. We are rolling through a lot of players in the centre bounce and our centre clearance work last few weeks has been good and we would be prepared but so would be the competitors.
Personnel - We are lucky to have our best 22 available last few weeks and fingers crossed, we would stay healthy come September. Health is the number one factor going into September. Callum Mills got injured last year and off went our chances.
Defence - Nick Larkey got hold of Tom McCartin and it is very possible that the good opposition forwards may do the same in the finals. It is probably the pressure on the opposition kicking into f50 that will prevent this from happening but it is the midfield that has to work hard to prevent easy kicks.

[bloodspirit]

Looking like there's a fair chance we'll play the Demons week 1 of the finals in a qualifier for a prelim. I fancy our chances against the Dees, I'd be happy with that. Then, if we're good enough, perhaps Geelong in the granny. I know I'm getting far ahead of where we are - but I'm not a player or coach so it's ok!