2023 fixture

[Thunder Shaker]

Seriously?? The AFL likes to stick the knife in. They did it in 2017 when the Bulldogs unfurled the flag against us.

They also did it in 2022, when Melbourne played the Western Bulldogs in round 1. One could take some satisfaction knowing that the Bulldogs were on the receiving end here.

[KSAS]

The HS is predicting Carlton will be on top of the ladder after round 6. What matters is where they'll be after R24, as they did start well this season being in the top 4 before dropping out the top 8 at the very end. There will be high finals expectancy put on them with their list.

Ch 7 news had us having the hardest draw with their ranking points system, with Essendon the easiest followed by North Melbourne. Waste of time imo, as each year you have a handful of teams who either slide up or down unexpectedly.

[bloodspirit]

I think the draw has been kind to the big VFL teams, especially Carlton. If Carlton can't make finals this year with their list and this draw, they should just pack up and go home. Maybe turn to Tiggy Touchwood.

We have a tough draw - and we've earned it. Won't make it easy to finish top 4 but, if we're good enough, we still will.

[neilfws]

Each year I ask: why don't they release the fixture in a format that I can import to a calendar?

If you ask that too, and you use Google Calendar, I made a CSV file (rounds 1-15) that you should be able to import using these instructions.

I'll try to update it when the remaining dates are released. Hopefully no errors but do let me know if you see any.

Link to the CSV file

[707]

So the "official" draw difficulty has been published by Champion Data.

We have the hardest draw followed by Dogs, Pies, Port, GWS, Brisbane, Freo, Geelong

At the other end, Essendon (AFL HQ old boy Brad Scott in charge) gets looked after by his mates as the easiest draw, then Carlton!, GC and Melbourne!

So Geelong comprehensively win the flag, Trade Period and the ND but only get the 8th hardest draw. Carlton and Melbourne 2nd and 4th easiest draws. Get on those three for top 4.

Dogs (hahaha), Port and GWS get shafted.

[i'm-uninformed2]

We have a brutal draw.

I expect five of the six sides we play twice to be in finals contention, including Gold Coast - who I expect to see rapid improvement from this year, as their young stars continue to mature, they drop King back in, maybe get to see the best of Hollands (who's elite) and have a stable coaching environment.

[wolftone57]

Seems like a rough draw to me, which is to be expected as grand finalists. Only easy beats there are GWS. I'd say GC could be easybeat as well but we all know we have a regulation loss to them every year.

The other four teams will likely be in the 8 pushing for top 4.

Suns were not too far out of the Eight. They have improved their list slightly and managed to open up some salary cap space. They should be around thd mark.

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[wolftone57]

Good. We are in the hunt for a premiership, the harder the draw the better. Also given the top 8 is never the same year to year the analysis is only partially relevant

Yes if we win the double up games we will be deserving of a premiership. Unlike Carlton who have yet another easy draw.

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[neilfws]

For those who like extra maths with their fixture analysis

An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for the Men's 2023 AFL Season

This looks at the 2023 fixture in various ways: home games, away games, combined, with/without various adjustments for things like venue.

The broad conclusions are probably similar to other analyses, placing the Swans at the "harder" end of the draw.

[chalbilto]

One of the unknown factors about predicting how the draw will pan out is, which teams will improve and which teams will regress from last season eg last year Collingwood improved and GWS regressed.

[bloodspirit]

For those who like extra maths with their fixture analysis

An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for the Men's 2023 AFL Season

This looks at the 2023 fixture in various ways: home games, away games, combined, with/without various adjustments for things like venue.

The broad conclusions are probably similar to other analyses, placing the Swans at the "harder" end of the draw.

Thanks to the credibility and reputation you have built, your last sentence is sufficient for me. And I'm grateful for it!

[mcs]

Thanks to the credibility and reputation you have built, your last sentence is sufficient for me. And I'm grateful for it!

Exactly right!

That article was a very interesting read - some nice thinking behind it compared to the clickbait dribble the main media outlets just pump out year after year around the fixture.

And at least it concludes the fairypuppies are getting the raw end of the stick for once haha@

[707]

History for us to ponder over summer

Since 1995, Sydney are the 10th team to lose a Grand Final by eight or more goals.

Six of those teams missed finals the next year

Of the other four that made the eight the following year, none won a game in September! including us who made the top four in 2015 but went out in straight sets to Freo and Norf

So of the ten teams to get beaten by eight goals or more, NONE have won a final the next year!

Powerful statistical history to overcome in 2023