Rnd 11 Pre-Match Thread, vs Carlton at SCG, 7:50 PM Friday 26 May

[H2F]

Sorry I should have been clearer.

Clearances are one of our most glaring weaknesses. Based on some of the comments on here, not sure how much is personnel and how much method? Hopefully Hickey will return to improve matters somewhat?

Hickey is on the wrong end of 30 and 2023 might be his last.

Stat wise there is hardly a difference between him and Ladlams anyways you will be surprised.

[Markwebbos]

I just had a look back at the stats from last year. Ironically we won the clearances v Carlton last year, but lost the match (so there goes my theory). Unbelievably we beat Geelong at clearances in the Grand Final.

Those were the only two games (starting with round 10, so I haven't looked at the first 9 rounds) in which we won clearances and lost the game. In 5 games (Tigers, Saints twice, Dockers and Pies (PF)) we lost the clearances and won.

[Auntie.Gerald]

It is very much what happens next from clearances.

But the main stat besides accuracy / scoreboard that seems to count for the best teams is simply who is scoring most from turnovers.

If you score more from turnovers vs your opposition you tend to win more games of AFL.

This trend has been dominant since 2017 Tigers footy and their major difference through their 3 premierships.

So different to the Hawks prior era of success where they controlled games with a higher % of uncontested footy and incredibly accurate forwards.

We have heard McGrath say how the Tigers changed the dominant game style of turnover footy changed AFL when he was an assistant coach with Dimma.

We have heard Ross Lyons say in his current era at St Kilda they pride themselves on being a positive turnover team.

Ross recently said more than 70% of their goals for need to be from turnover footy.

I suspect that centre clearances are one of the most difficult to manage for most teams with non elite ruckman.

Equally your defensive set up against a fast centre clearance tends to counter well ie that fast entry through the spine where there is a lot of backs set up to negate

For us at the swans we also have become a dominant HBF counter attack from turnover team so we appear to like balls coming in hot from centre clearances then counter.

[goods53]

We know Carlton are going to be really fired up this week Voss & the team are really copping it from their fans & the press , our midfield has to step up to try & cut their forward 50 entries there is NO way we will be able to combat
McKay & Curnow they are both "one grab" marks overhead with our lack of height in backline they will have a field day , Melican & Hickey if fit must play

[RogueSwan]

Collingwood jumped Carlton early in the game last Sunday and were really only able to maintain that lead for the rest of the game, not extend it...

I'm pretty sure that after half time Carlton put extra numbers around the ball and the Pies played a couple of extra across half back. This essentially closed down the game and resulted in only 6 goals, in total, being kicked in the second half.
That, or the Blues couldn't kick straight.

[KSAS]

Have feeling club will play it safe with the two Tom"s concussions (Hickey & McCartin) with us having a bye following week.

Their twin towers up forward is a big worry with our depleted back line. Melican might come into consideration, but in favour to keep giving Gould senior experience.

Replacing Clarke with HHk would be an attacking selection.

Lots of pressure on Carlton. If we can start we'll & hit the scorecard, they may panic quickly.

Hervey showed some signs last week & Papley had quietest game I can recall. They both spark the team when their on. Bud may well also, needing 1 more goal to move into 4th on the all time goal kicking list.

[waswan]

We dont have our top defenders for intercept to win the ball for turnover down back.

We need to win it in the middle.
Whether thats a clearance or whatever, we need to win contested possession, the way we setup at clearances doesnt hold us in good stead.

Hopefully they look at last years game against Carlton, when it literally changed at half time when we went head to head from defensive minded.

We stay defensive this week, we will get pumped.

[Blood Fever]

Yes, bring him in for a few games now. As for Clarke- he may be a competent tagger but that’s not required with our current position so I would drop him against the Blues. Rowie can cover Walsh and Parks on Cripps.
If big Tom is fit, he comes in for Ladhams and HHK for Clarke. Let’s get back to attacking footy!

Remember a few on here calling for Harry Cunningham's head earlier in the season. Has been very solid in his best position down back in a time of need. Zero hesitation involved in the club selecting him every week I reckon.

[Foreign Legion]

Am I reading too much into it that they are not even giving any updates on Paddy McCartin? I know they have to be careful. Starting to worry about Tom Mc. too.

[Nico]

Could it be that Paddy will retire before the mid season cut off date.

[Ludwig]

Am I reading too much into it that they are not even giving any updates on Paddy McCartin? I know they have to be careful. Starting to worry about Tom Mc. too.

Paddy will have to be passed fit to play by at least 1 doctor as well as the AFL. I can't imagine any doctor taking the risk of allowing Paddy to play again, given the liability if Paddy has another concussion or is found to have brain damage at any time in the future.

I wouldn't play Tom again this year, to give him the best chance to playing next year. In any case, I doubt Tom can get through a full season without concussion symptoms and we should plan as if Tom will not play again. I think players like the McCartins can suffer brain trauma without having a serious head knock, but simply by the cumulative effect of minor head trauma in the regular course of play.

Most players who have had an extended period of concussion symptoms don't return to play, at least not for any considerable length of time.

It's bad luck for the McCartin brothers and the Swans. They were going to be our defensive pillars for the rest of the decade. We've been a mess since they dropped out of the side.


On Marc Sheather: A navicular stress condition is a serious problem that can take a long time to heal. It's questionable if he will be fit to play again this year.

[waswan]

I think the issue with Paddy was how minor the incident was.

He has had many concussions and has been seen by specialists that have passed him fit to play.
You could argue any of the last 5+ concussions have been too many for Paddy but he keeps getting cleared by specialists.

I think Tom wil be fine but we are just being cautious, he may also be alongside his brother who like many predict, may be about to walk away from the game.

Any chance for Ramps ? I know they said out til after the bye but he is doing full contact training.

[Roadrunner]

I think the issue with Paddy was how minor the incident was.

He has had many concussions and has been seen by specialists that have passed him fit to play.
You could argue any of the last 5+ concussions have been too many for Paddy but he keeps getting cleared by specialists.

I think Tom wil be fine but we are just being cautious, he may also be alongside his brother who like many predict, may be about to walk away from the game.

Any chance for Ramps ? I know they said out til after the bye but he is doing full contact training.

I can’t see that the medicos would clear Paddy to play again, unfortunately. But Tom could come back after the bye.

It would be great if Ramps could come back this week to help organise the defence as it needs him for sure.
Then HHK for Clarke. Big Tom for Ladhams.
I was critical of Harry early in the season but stand corrected as he’s been good lately- pleased for him but keep him down back Horse as his best value is there!

[Ludwig]

I noted that Longmire mentioned Francis and McAndrew in a positive light and that Melican was in the mix for Friday. A glaring non-mention was Gould. I wouldn't be surprised to see Melican in for Gould this week.

Some 191 cm players can play key defence, but Gould is not one of them. I think the main reason is that he can't jump, so he's actually a short 191. If there is a role for him, it's more as a Rampe type player, but there's a big gap between the two. I hope Gould can find a way, if not, the 2019 draft might be a bi bust, except for Warner. I needn't mention ET and I'm close to giving up on Stephens. It hurts when your top 3 picks don't pan out.

Rampe will be 33 in a couple of weeks, so there's no guarantee he will play one, and if he does, 2024 will likely be his last season.

[MattW]

I noted that Longmire mentioned Francis and McAndrew in a positive light and that Melican was in the mix for Friday. A glaring non-mention was Gould. I wouldn't be surprised to see Melican in for Gould this week.

Some 191 cm players can play key defence, but Gould is not one of them. I think the main reason is that he can't jump, so he's actually a short 191. If there is a role for him, it's more as a Rampe type player, but there's a big gap between the two. I hope Gould can find a way, if not, the 2019 draft might be a bi bust, except for Warner. I needn't mention ET and I'm close to giving up on Stephens. It hurts when your top 3 picks don't pan out.

Rampe will be 33 in a couple of weeks, so there's no guarantee he will play one, and if he does, 2024 will likely be his last season.

Agree with your first paragraph - my read too. The non-mention of Gould has indeed glaring. Without being harsh, even allowing for his inexperience, I haven’t seen any positive signs. He was continually beaten on the weekend.

Melican is comparatively much more likely to quell McKay (assuming Fox takes Curnow).

(I thought it possible John left open the slim possibility that Rampe might play, by saying 'and if Rampe doesn't play...' at one point.)

I share John's positive appraisal of Francis. He's shown promise as an interceptor.

Re 'giving up' on Stephens: what does that mean? Giving up on him as an AFL footballer or just a very good one? He has dropped off this year, after a bit of a break-out last year: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/play..._Stephens.html. He still struggles with his decision-making and doesn't show significant will to contest. The best case scenario is that he's late to mature.

Impressed by Longmire in the press conference. It is a very tough job to front up each week. I thought he was quick to say that Chris Scott was as experienced as him, when it was suggested he was the most long-appointed coach. He'd been expecting the questions he got on that (not unreasonable questions, I thought) and he dealt with them well.

Edit: just noticed this in the injury report:

'Dane Rampe

Dane’s neck injury continues to improve. He has increased his strength work and is in full contact training.'

Hmmmmmmm.