General footy chat Real ranking of teams during bye rounds - 2024 edition

[Thunder Shaker]

Last year, I posted this thread: The real ranking of teams during the bye rounds. I'm creating a new version of this thread for the 2024 season, because several rounds have teams with different numbers of games played.

After the Opening Round, this is less meaningful because 10 teams have not played a game yet.

                      P  Pts  Perc W-L
Gold Coast Suns       1   4  165.0  +1
GWS Giants            1   4  139.0  +1
Sydney Swans          1   4  134.4  +1
Carlton               1   4  101.2  +1
Adelaide Crows        0   0    0.0   0
Essendon              0   0    0.0   0
Fremantle             0   0    0.0   0
Geelong Cats          0   0    0.0   0
Hawthorn              0   0    0.0   0
North Melbourne       0   0    0.0   0
Port Adelaide         0   0    0.0   0
St Kilda              0   0    0.0   0
West Coast Eagles     0   0    0.0   0
Western Bulldogs      0   0    0.0   0
Brisbane Lions        1   0   98.8  -1
Melbourne             1   0   74.4  -1
Collingwood           1   0   71.9  -1
Richmond              1   0   60.6  -1

[Thunder Shaker]

After all teams have played, the adjusted ladder becomes more meaningful.

* A normal round 1 ladder would have all teams on +1 or -1, except on rare occasions when teams have drawn in round 1, as Richmond and Carlton did last year. This adjusted ladder has four teams on +2 (wins minus losses), one team on 0, and three teams on -2.
* Melbourne is the only team that has the same number of wins and losses. Other teams with one win have no losses, so objectively they have outperformed Melbourne (one win and one loss).
* Three teams that lost in the Opening Round lost again in round 1. They have more ground to make up compared to the teams with only one loss, so they are placed at the bottom.

                  P  Pt Perc  W-L
GWS Giants        2  8  143.3 +2
Sydney Swans      2  8  141.4 +2
Gold Coast Suns   2  8  139.5 +2
Carlton           2  8  103.6 +2
Port Adelaide     1  4  171.4 +1
Fremantle         1  4  132.9 +1
Essendon          1  4  128.9 +1
Geelong Cats      1  4  111.8 +1
Melbourne         2  4  115.3  0
Adelaide Crows    1  0   90.0 -1
St Kilda          1  0   89.5 -1
Hawthorn          1  0   77.6 -1
North Melbourne   1  0   67.8 -1
Western Bulldogs  1  0   58.7 -1
West Coast Eagles 1  0   58.3 -1
Brisbane Lions    2  0   86.6 -2
Richmond          2  0   76.2 -2
Collingwood       2  0   69.9 -2

[Thunder Shaker]

This week the teams with two wins have performed less well if they also have a loss (Melbourne and Gold Coast) when compared to the teams that have two wins and no losses. At the bottom, Collingwood and Richmond have more losses than the other winless teams so they are ranked lower.

These four teams end up being ranked lower because they have fewer opportunities remaining to make up ground over the rest of the season. For example, it will take to round seven before Collingwood and Richmond have a chance of getting back level (3 wins, 3 losses plus a bye), but the teams with 2 losses only need two more rounds to do this. Therefore, Collingwood and Richmond must be lower on the ladder than every other team. That's what this "real ranking" shows.

Round 2

                  P  Pt Perc  W-L
GWS Giants        3  12 165.7  +3
Sydney Swans      3  12 136.3  +3
Port Adelaide     2   8 149.4  +2
Fremantle         2   8 133.6  +2
Geelong Cats      2   8 118.6  +2
Carlton           2   8 103.6  +2
Melbourne         3   8 141.5  +1
Gold Coast Suns   3   8  98.7  +1
St Kilda          2   4 104.5   0
Western Bulldogs  2   4 101.7   0
Essendon          2   4  97.2   0
Brisbane Lions    2   0  86.6  -2
Adelaide Crows    2   0  84.0  -2
North Melbourne   2   0  70.9  -2
Hawthorn          2   0  60.5  -2
West Coast Eagles 2   0  49.6  -2
Richmond          3   0  75.9  -3
Collingwood       3   0  74.2  -3

[Thunder Shaker]

Four teams that played in the Opening Round have yet to have their byes. Collingwood and Sydney have a bye next week, and Melbourne and Richmond have their byes the following week.

Collingwood improved their position after their win against Brisbane. Sydney's loss against Richmond at the MCG in a perennial danger game cost the Swans a chance to go on top of the ladder and Sydney are now back in the pack behind four undefeated teams.

The teams can be broadly divided into two groups, the top 10 with more wins than losses, and the bottom seven with two or more losses than wins. St Kilda sits outside both groups with a good percentage.

                  P  Pts  Perc W-L
GWS GIANTS        3  12 165.7  +3
Fremantle         3  12 146.7  +3
Geelong Cats      3  12 129.3  +3
Carlton           3  12 125.1  +3
Melbourne         4  12 130.7  +2
Sydney Swans      4  12 125.3  +2
Western Bulldogs  3   8 138.3  +1
Port Adelaide     3   8 128.3  +1
Essendon          3   8  99.3  +1
Gold Coast SUNS   3   8  98.7  +1
St Kilda          3   4 101.3  -1
Collingwood       4   4  84.3  -2
Richmond          4   4  82.0  -2
Brisbane Lions    3   0  83.8  -3
Adelaide Crows    3   0  73.3  -3
North Melbourne   3   0  66.4  -3
Hawthorn          3   0  62.4  -3
West Coast Eagles 3   0  42.8  -3

[Thunder Shaker]

With the bye rounds now taking place, some teams have played more games than others.

This version of the ladder ranks teams by wins minus losses, with each step on the wins minus losses sum being mathematically equivalent to half a game. This can be seen by noting that a team with a 7-5 record is +2, a team with 6-5-1 record is +1, and a team with 6-6 is at zero.

As it happens, this week the "real ranking" is the same as the regular ladder, but this is not always true. It also shows how far ahead Sydney is on top of the ladder (two games ahead of Essendon; drawn games are disregarded with this model), and how far behind Richmond and North Melbourne are (Richmond is two games behind the Eagles).

The adjusted ladder:

                   P  Pts  Perc  W-L
Sydney Swans       11  40  150.1  +9
Essendon           12  34  102.8  +5
Geelong Cats       12  32  112.9  +4
Port Adelaide      12  32  111.7  +4
Carlton            12  32  108.0  +4
Fremantle          12  30  121.4  +3
GWS GIANTS         11  28  114.6  +3
Gold Coast SUNS    12  28  108.6  +2
Collingwood        12  28  104.6  +2
Melbourne          12  28  104.3  +2
Western Bulldogs   12  24  121.3   0
Hawthorn           12  20   86.7  -2
Brisbane Lions     11  18  111.6  -2
Adelaide Crows     12  18  108.6  -3
St Kilda           12  16   92.6  -4
West Coast Eagles  12  12   71.7  -6
Richmond           12   4   62.2 -10
North Melbourne    11   0   55.9 -11

[Thunder Shaker]

This week's edition has a few teams moving up due to playing fewer games: Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane Lions. Port Adelaide swaps places with Essendon, Fremantle jumps to fifth, and Brisbane Lions move up to 11th. In all cases this is caused by teams with a draw playing fewer matches (moving them up) or Essendon moving down due to having a draw and playing one game more than Port. Drawn games will tend to cause this; if there were no drawn games, a one-game difference will not be sufficient to cause teams to move around on the adjusted ladder.

This adjusted ladder has some predictive value. For example, Essendon are likely to drop down to fourth after their bye, if Port Adelaide wins or draws their next game. Essendon could drop to fifth if Fremantle wins their next game. This is less obvious with the unadjusted ladder: Essendon is currently four places higher than Fremantle, so such movements are harder to see.

                   P  Pts  Perc W-L
Sydney Swans      12  44  148.8 +10
Carlton           13  36  109.8  +5
Port Adelaide     12  32  111.7  +4
Essendon          13  34  100.2  +4
Fremantle         12  30  121.4  +3
Geelong Cats      13  32  108.9  +3
Collingwood       13  32  108.0  +3
GWS GIANTS        12  28  112.7  +2
Gold Coast SUNS   13  28  107.9  +1
Melbourne         13  28  100.1  +1
Brisbane Lions    12  22  115.5  -1
Western Bulldogs  13  24  114.9  -1
Hawthorn          13  24   88.1  -1
St Kilda          13  20   93.3  -3
Adelaide Crows    13  18  107.1  -4
West Coast Eagles 13  12   72.6  -7
Richmond          13   8   64.9  -9
North Melbourne   12   4   58.6 -10

[707]

Nice work, I love where we're sitting, just need to beat the Cows this week, better still, a good old fashion ed rogering LOL

[Thunder Shaker]

Here is the final instalment of the "real" ladder for this year.

                   P  Pts  Perc W-L
Sydney Swans      13  48  149.8 +11
Carlton           13  36  109.8  +5
Collingwood       14  36  107.3  +4
Essendon          13  34  100.2  +4
GWS GIANTS        13  32  114.2  +3
Geelong Cats      13  32  108.9  +3
Port Adelaide     13  32  108.8  +3
Fremantle         13  30  111.1  +2
Gold Coast SUNS   13  28  107.9  +1
Melbourne         13  28  100.1  +1
Western Bulldogs  14  28  119.7   0
Brisbane Lions    13  26  115.8   0
Hawthorn          14  28   92.7   0
St Kilda          14  20   92.2  -4
Adelaide Crows    14  18  102.6  -5
West Coast Eagles 13  12   72.6  -7
Richmond          14   8   63.9 -10
North Melbourne   13   4   61.9 -11

Gold Coast and Melbourne move above the Western Bulldogs due to playing fewer games. Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and Hawthorn are grouped together. Brisbane moves above Hawthorn on percentage.

As predicted last week, Essendon dropped down to fourth after their bye. They did not drop lower because Fremantle lost to the Western Bulldogs.

Collingwood is the only team in the top eight that has not had a bye. They could drop as low as seventh after their bye but no lower. Most of the post-bye shuffling this week will take place in the bottom half of the ladder.

Second to 13th is separated by less than first and second on the ladder.

[707]

Such an interesting season, only the bottom five are definitely out of it, so many eight point games to come.