2005 Season Ladder - predicted from AFL website polls

[Thunder Shaker]

The AFL website periodically posts pools for its visitors. One of the polls that the AFL website has had over the last few months is "Where will team X finish in 2005?", with 4 options: 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16.

Based on the results of these polls, I have computed the final 2005 AFL ladder.

The ladder is:

1. Port Adelaide
2. St Kilda
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Geelong
5. West Coast
6. Sydney
7. Melbourne
8. Fremantle
9. Essendon
10. Collingwood
11. Kangaroos
12. Carlton
13. Adelaide
14. Richmond
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Hawthorn

How it was done:
The polls have 4 options: 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16, and results given as percentages. I multiplied the percentage for each rank by 4 for 1-4, 3 for 5-8, 2 for 9-12 and 1 for 13-16. Then I divided the result by the sum of the percentages - the percentages don't always add up to 100 so this step is necessary. When the results are sorted from highest to lowest the above ladder appears.

[liz]

That ladder looks suspicously similar to last year's final ladder, indicating that voters on the AFL website are not particularly imaginative (at least as a group) in their predictions.

[NMWBloods]

My guess would be something like:

1. St Kilda
2. Brisbane Lions
3. Port Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. West Coast
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. Fremantle
9. Essendon
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Kangaroos
14. Collingwood
15. Adelaide
16. Hawthorn

[The Undertaker]

Originally posted by liz
That ladder looks suspicously similar to last year's final ladder, indicating that voters on the AFL website are not particularly imaginative (at least as a group) in their predictions.

I agree liz.

Too similar to last year

[cruiser]

I still think its too early to make any predictions. I'll make mine after I've seen player and team form in trials and Wizard Cup. I agree that the ladder based on the polls is way too much like last years.

[ScottH]

The Wizard cup will show us jack @@@@ about a teams form for the home and away season. Most team aren't anywhere neqar full strength for this comp.

[Sanecow]

Hopefully that will make Cruiser's ladder prediction imaginative enough for everyone.

[NMWBloods]

Our guesses now are about as meaningful as our guesses any time in the next couple of months.

[ScottH]

But somes guesses will have more guess work than other guesses.

[NMWBloods]

I guess my guesses are a mixture of guesswork and guesstimation!

[ScottH]

And just how accurate do you think your ladder will be?

[NMWBloods]

I guess it will not be an unreasonable estimation of the possibility of teams finishing relatively close on a proximity basis to their ultimate positions...

[Sanecow]

I think Thunder Shaker's methods are more technically defensible by virtue of their transparency.

[LittleSchneider]

As NMW knows - Never underestimate the power of guesstimation.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by ScottH
The Wizard cup will show us jack @@@@ about a teams form for the home and away season. Most team aren't anywhere neqar full strength for this comp.

Sure, but at least it'll give you a better idea then than you'd have now.