2005 Season Ladder - predicted from AFL website polls

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Thunder Shaker
    Aut vincere aut mori
    • Apr 2004
    • 4203

    2005 Season Ladder - predicted from AFL website polls

    The AFL website periodically posts pools for its visitors. One of the polls that the AFL website has had over the last few months is "Where will team X finish in 2005?", with 4 options: 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16.

    Based on the results of these polls, I have computed the final 2005 AFL ladder.

    The ladder is:

    1. Port Adelaide
    2. St Kilda
    3. Brisbane Lions
    4. Geelong
    5. West Coast
    6. Sydney
    7. Melbourne
    8. Fremantle
    9. Essendon
    10. Collingwood
    11. Kangaroos
    12. Carlton
    13. Adelaide
    14. Richmond
    15. Western Bulldogs
    16. Hawthorn

    How it was done:
    The polls have 4 options: 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16, and results given as percentages. I multiplied the percentage for each rank by 4 for 1-4, 3 for 5-8, 2 for 9-12 and 1 for 13-16. Then I divided the result by the sum of the percentages - the percentages don't always add up to 100 so this step is necessary. When the results are sorted from highest to lowest the above ladder appears.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
  • liz
    Veteran
    Site Admin
    • Jan 2003
    • 16778

    #2
    That ladder looks suspicously similar to last year's final ladder, indicating that voters on the AFL website are not particularly imaginative (at least as a group) in their predictions.

    Comment

    • NMWBloods
      Taking Refuge!!
      • Jan 2003
      • 15819

      #3
      My guess would be something like:

      1. St Kilda
      2. Brisbane Lions
      3. Port Adelaide
      4. Sydney
      5. West Coast
      6. Geelong
      7. Melbourne
      8. Fremantle
      9. Essendon
      10. Carlton
      11. Richmond
      12. Western Bulldogs
      13. Kangaroos
      14. Collingwood
      15. Adelaide
      16. Hawthorn
      Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

      "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

      Comment

      • The Undertaker
        On the Rookie List
        • Oct 2004
        • 517

        #4
        Originally posted by liz
        That ladder looks suspicously similar to last year's final ladder, indicating that voters on the AFL website are not particularly imaginative (at least as a group) in their predictions.
        I agree liz.

        Too similar to last year
        Well done Craig Bolton for getting the co- captaincy in 2008.

        Your determination,your tenacity and your under-rated skill is why you have become my favourite player!

        Comment

        • cruiser
          What the frack!
          • Jul 2004
          • 6114

          #5
          I still think its too early to make any predictions. I'll make mine after I've seen player and team form in trials and Wizard Cup. I agree that the ladder based on the polls is way too much like last years.
          Occupational hazards:
          I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
          - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

          Comment

          • ScottH
            It's Goodes to cheer!!
            • Sep 2003
            • 23665

            #6
            The Wizard cup will show us jack @@@@ about a teams form for the home and away season. Most team aren't anywhere neqar full strength for this comp.

            Comment

            • Sanecow
              Suspended by the MRP
              • Mar 2003
              • 6917

              #7
              Hopefully that will make Cruiser's ladder prediction imaginative enough for everyone.

              Comment

              • NMWBloods
                Taking Refuge!!
                • Jan 2003
                • 15819

                #8
                Our guesses now are about as meaningful as our guesses any time in the next couple of months.
                Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                Comment

                • ScottH
                  It's Goodes to cheer!!
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 23665

                  #9
                  But somes guesses will have more guess work than other guesses.

                  Comment

                  • NMWBloods
                    Taking Refuge!!
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 15819

                    #10
                    I guess my guesses are a mixture of guesswork and guesstimation!
                    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                    Comment

                    • ScottH
                      It's Goodes to cheer!!
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 23665

                      #11
                      And just how accurate do you think your ladder will be?

                      Comment

                      • NMWBloods
                        Taking Refuge!!
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 15819

                        #12
                        I guess it will not be an unreasonable estimation of the possibility of teams finishing relatively close on a proximity basis to their ultimate positions...
                        Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                        "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                        Comment

                        • Sanecow
                          Suspended by the MRP
                          • Mar 2003
                          • 6917

                          #13
                          I think Thunder Shaker's methods are more technically defensible by virtue of their transparency.

                          Comment

                          • LittleSchneider
                            On the Rookie List
                            • Nov 2004
                            • 582

                            #14
                            As NMW knows - Never underestimate the power of guesstimation.
                            And the man who started it, the Schneiderman, can kick his third for the quarter. And the swans are in the Grand Final!

                            Comment

                            • cruiser
                              What the frack!
                              • Jul 2004
                              • 6114

                              #15
                              Originally posted by ScottH
                              The Wizard cup will show us jack @@@@ about a teams form for the home and away season. Most team aren't anywhere neqar full strength for this comp.
                              Sure, but at least it'll give you a better idea then than you'd have now.
                              Occupational hazards:
                              I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
                              - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

                              Comment

                              Working...