Draft review

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  • hammo
    Veterans List
    • Jul 2003
    • 5554

    Draft review

    Trading away our 1st and 2nd round picks doesn't come as much surprise, based on Roosy's past comments about the draft.

    Probably a good time to revisit this article (can't find original from Australian) which puts the Chambers and Richards pick-ups into light.


    "I was a bit of a sceptic all along about the draft but when we started to really analyse it, it shocked me," he said.

    Sydney's study of 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 showed that if you had pick No.10 there was only a 40 per cent chance of him developing into what Roos classed as a "good to very good player".

    Five of the 13 players taken at pick No.15 in that period have not played one game in the AFL. That made the decision to take Jolly much easier. "To be honest, we weren't giving up that much," Roos said.
    source
    "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk
  • barry
    Veterans List
    • Jan 2003
    • 8499

    #2
    Re: Swans draft strategy

    Originally posted by hammo
    Trading away our 1st and 2nd round picks doesn't come as much surprise, based on Roosy's past comments about the draft.

    Probably a good time to revisit this article (can't find original from Australian) which puts the Chambers and Richards pick-ups into light.


    "I was a bit of a sceptic all along about the draft but when we started to really analyse it, it shocked me," he said.

    Sydney's study of 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 showed that if you had pick No.10 there was only a 40 per cent chance of him developing into what Roos classed as a "good to very good player".

    Five of the 13 players taken at pick No.15 in that period have not played one game in the AFL. That made the decision to take Jolly much easier. "To be honest, we weren't giving up that much," Roos said.
    source
    That may be true, but you exclude yourself from any possible chance of picking up a Judd by throwing away 1st round picks.
    Early draft choices is the only way you get "Judd"s.

    Its like the lottery. Mathematically you would never do it, but the benefits of winning as so great, its worth a punt now and then.

    Comment

    • Charlie
      On the Rookie List
      • Jan 2003
      • 4101

      #3
      Re: Re: Swans draft strategy

      Originally posted by barry
      That may be true, but you exclude yourself from any possible chance of picking up a Judd by throwing away 1st round picks.
      Early draft choices is the only way you get "Judd"s.

      Its like the lottery. Mathematically you would never do it, but the benefits of winning as so great, its worth a punt now and then.
      ... But it's also desirable to have a diverse investment portfolio.
      We hate Anthony Rocca
      We hate Shannon Grant too
      We hate scumbag Gaspar
      But Leo WE LOVE YOU!

      Comment

      • Charlie
        On the Rookie List
        • Jan 2003
        • 4101

        #4
        Oh yeah - at the risk of upsetting some people here, that is a classical Moneyball recruitment philosophy.
        We hate Anthony Rocca
        We hate Shannon Grant too
        We hate scumbag Gaspar
        But Leo WE LOVE YOU!

        Comment

        • anne
          Regular in the Side
          • Sep 2003
          • 719

          #5
          But the whole point is that late first round picks don't get you a Judd. Judd was a priority pick. Getting one of those(priority picks) is not an option for Sydney. So they are taking alternative routes, which at this stage appear no less successful than taking late first round or other mediocre picks.
          ---------||--ANNE--||----------

          Comment

          • cowcar
            Pushing for Selection
            • Aug 2005
            • 89

            #6
            i would say that the current approach, picking players who have shown something, but havent reached the age yet where players step up, is a far better approach than picking a young player who may/ may not make the grade. Sure sometimes you have to take risks, but they shoudl be measured risks. Anyone familiar with economic Game theory? This woudl seem the the best way to approach trading season and the draft.
            Also, i was the under the impression that the swans are very happy with their current crop of youngsters coming through, so why add more until they have had a chance to develop. I look forward to Moore getting more game time this coming year, as he will tunr into an absolute gun in the competition IMO.
            season 2012- top 4 here we come

            Comment

            • Snowy
              On the Rookie List
              • Jun 2003
              • 1244

              #7
              Would be a VERY unwise course of action next year though.
              LIFE GOES ON

              Comment

              • hammo
                Veterans List
                • Jul 2003
                • 5554

                #8
                Originally posted by cowcar
                I look forward to Moore getting more game time this coming year, as he will tunr into an absolute gun in the competition IMO.
                Moore and Macleski to arrive as senior footballers and hopefully Willoughby and Schmidt to debut and impress.
                "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

                Comment

                • Go Swannies
                  Veterans List
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5697

                  #9
                  Originally posted by hammo
                  Moore and Macleski to arrive as senior footballers and hopefully Willoughby and Schmidt to debut and impress.
                  With our two new recruits plus these four. And with Vogels and McVeigh still playing in the 2s - and still Doyle apparently (and maybe Saddo) we seem to be alright. Next year we might have to just run with the draft or we've going to have a lot of senior players getting bored in the 2s and considering their options.

                  Comment

                  • Sanecow
                    Suspended by the MRP
                    • Mar 2003
                    • 6917

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Snowy
                    Would be a VERY unwise course of action next year though.
                    Well of course. The draft is always better next year.

                    Comment

                    • Schneiderman
                      The Fourth Captain
                      • Aug 2004
                      • 1615

                      #11
                      Re: Re: Swans draft strategy

                      Originally posted by barry
                      That may be true, but you exclude yourself from any possible chance of picking up a Judd by throwing away 1st round picks.
                      Early draft choices is the only way you get "Judd"s.
                      No its not. Hird, O'Loughlin, Goodes and even Dal Santo and Black (both early 30's) are good reasons why you cant trust the just the early picks in the draft to produce quality.

                      Truth is, you can take any good or above average player and teach them to play a good team game. Players like Bevan and Kirk are proof of that. They are good enough to make it at AFL level, and good enough to be part of a premiership team.

                      To pick up a superstar, one that is clearly a supreme talent even as a youngster, is a complete lottery:

                      1. You have to be a poorly performing team OR the kids father had to have played at least 100 games for your club.
                      2. You have to have been a poor club in just the right year.
                      3. You have to hope he wants to come play for you (Buckley anyone?).
                      4. He has to have the right attitude... and just how many 'superstars' are really team players, especially as they have played their entire lives to that point with clearly inferior teammates.
                      5. They have to be performing at Draft Camp. Players with injuries or nerves (like MOL or Goodes or Davey) may not standout at that one point in time, and suddenly having a high pick becomes less relevant.

                      Its a lottery. Having said that, taking established and mature-bodied 22yr olds instead of untried 17/18yr olds is not a bad policy.
                      Our Greatest Moment:

                      Saturday, 24th Sept, 2005 - 5:13pm

                      Comment

                      • Snowy
                        On the Rookie List
                        • Jun 2003
                        • 1244

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Sanecow
                        Well of course. The draft is always better next year.
                        That might seem true but from about May this year every recruiter interviewed has talked up the 2006 crop. I saw a few of the likely top tenners play and they're good. I think next year will have the guaranteed superstars. Mantra should be trade out of it at your peril.
                        LIFE GOES ON

                        Comment

                        • Go Swannies
                          Veterans List
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5697

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Snowy
                          That might seem true but from about May this year every recruiter interviewed has talked up the 2006 crop. I saw a few of the likely top tenners play and they're good. I think next year will have the guaranteed superstars. Mantra should be trade out of it at your peril.
                          I hope we're not eligible for a top 10 pick next year.

                          Comment

                          • Old Royboy
                            Support Staff
                            • Mar 2004
                            • 879

                            #14
                            How was our premiership team put together?

                            1st round picks ? 3
                            Fosdike(3), B1(8),Crouch(8)
                            Traded 1st round picks ? 4
                            Hall (13,17,45), Williams(8,39), Ball(11,41), Jolly(15)
                            2nd round picks ? 3
                            Dempster(34F/S), NOG(24), LRT(29zone)
                            Traded 2nd round ? 1
                            Davis(21)
                            3rd Round Picks ?2
                            O?Laughlan(40), Goodes(43)
                            4th round picks ? 3
                            Buchanan(52), O?Keefe(56), Schneider(60) ? in three consecutive years.
                            Rookies elevations - 3
                            Kirk, Bevan, Kenelley
                            Freebies (old zone selections) ? 2
                            Barry, Matthews
                            Freebie PSD ? 1
                            B2(3)

                            Based on that:

                            Smart trading can be better than keeping 1st round picks (especially when draft is skinny)
                            Low digit picks are not the be-all and end-all ? look at the list, only 4 single digit numbers are there in over 10 years of recruiting.
                            Losing low selections does not mean there is no quality ? we have eight gun players picked 3rd round or lower (including the one reject)

                            As long as Sydney employ smart people to do the recruiting we should trust their judgement. The football community can say what they like, I?m happy to support the no Richard Cranium/SFB principle.
                            Pay peanuts get monkeys

                            Comment

                            • cruiser
                              What the frack!
                              • Jul 2004
                              • 6114

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Old Royboy
                              As long as Sydney employ smart people to do the recruiting we should trust their judgement. The football community can say what they like, I?m happy to support the no Richard Cranium/SFB principle.
                              I'm with you on this ORB. Everyone on RWO is entitled to their opinion but in the end we should trust our recruiting and coaching staff who have more expertise and knowledge than most of the people on RWO combined.
                              Occupational hazards:
                              I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
                              - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

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