Draft review

[hammo]

Trading away our 1st and 2nd round picks doesn't come as much surprise, based on Roosy's past comments about the draft.

Probably a good time to revisit this article (can't find original from Australian) which puts the Chambers and Richards pick-ups into light.


"I was a bit of a sceptic all along about the draft but when we started to really analyse it, it shocked me," he said.

Sydney's study of 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 showed that if you had pick No.10 there was only a 40 per cent chance of him developing into what Roos classed as a "good to very good player".

Five of the 13 players taken at pick No.15 in that period have not played one game in the AFL. That made the decision to take Jolly much easier. "To be honest, we weren't giving up that much," Roos said.
source

[barry]

Re: Swans draft strategy

Originally posted by hammo
Trading away our 1st and 2nd round picks doesn't come as much surprise, based on Roosy's past comments about the draft.

Probably a good time to revisit this article (can't find original from Australian) which puts the Chambers and Richards pick-ups into light.


"I was a bit of a sceptic all along about the draft but when we started to really analyse it, it shocked me," he said.

Sydney's study of 13 drafts between 1989 and 2001 showed that if you had pick No.10 there was only a 40 per cent chance of him developing into what Roos classed as a "good to very good player".

Five of the 13 players taken at pick No.15 in that period have not played one game in the AFL. That made the decision to take Jolly much easier. "To be honest, we weren't giving up that much," Roos said.
source

That may be true, but you exclude yourself from any possible chance of picking up a Judd by throwing away 1st round picks.
Early draft choices is the only way you get "Judd"s.

Its like the lottery. Mathematically you would never do it, but the benefits of winning as so great, its worth a punt now and then.

[Charlie]

Re: Re: Swans draft strategy

Originally posted by barry
That may be true, but you exclude yourself from any possible chance of picking up a Judd by throwing away 1st round picks.
Early draft choices is the only way you get "Judd"s.

Its like the lottery. Mathematically you would never do it, but the benefits of winning as so great, its worth a punt now and then.

... But it's also desirable to have a diverse investment portfolio.

[Charlie]

Oh yeah - at the risk of upsetting some people here, that is a classical Moneyball recruitment philosophy.

[anne]

But the whole point is that late first round picks don't get you a Judd. Judd was a priority pick. Getting one of those(priority picks) is not an option for Sydney. So they are taking alternative routes, which at this stage appear no less successful than taking late first round or other mediocre picks.

[cowcar]

i would say that the current approach, picking players who have shown something, but havent reached the age yet where players step up, is a far better approach than picking a young player who may/ may not make the grade. Sure sometimes you have to take risks, but they shoudl be measured risks. Anyone familiar with economic Game theory? This woudl seem the the best way to approach trading season and the draft.
Also, i was the under the impression that the swans are very happy with their current crop of youngsters coming through, so why add more until they have had a chance to develop. I look forward to Moore getting more game time this coming year, as he will tunr into an absolute gun in the competition IMO.

[Snowy]

Would be a VERY unwise course of action next year though.

[hammo]

Originally posted by cowcar
I look forward to Moore getting more game time this coming year, as he will tunr into an absolute gun in the competition IMO.

Moore and Macleski to arrive as senior footballers and hopefully Willoughby and Schmidt to debut and impress.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by hammo
Moore and Macleski to arrive as senior footballers and hopefully Willoughby and Schmidt to debut and impress.

With our two new recruits plus these four. And with Vogels and McVeigh still playing in the 2s - and still Doyle apparently (and maybe Saddo) we seem to be alright. Next year we might have to just run with the draft or we've going to have a lot of senior players getting bored in the 2s and considering their options.

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by Snowy
Would be a VERY unwise course of action next year though.

Well of course. The draft is always better next year.

[Schneiderman]

Re: Re: Swans draft strategy

Originally posted by barry
That may be true, but you exclude yourself from any possible chance of picking up a Judd by throwing away 1st round picks.
Early draft choices is the only way you get "Judd"s.

No its not. Hird, O'Loughlin, Goodes and even Dal Santo and Black (both early 30's) are good reasons why you cant trust the just the early picks in the draft to produce quality.

Truth is, you can take any good or above average player and teach them to play a good team game. Players like Bevan and Kirk are proof of that. They are good enough to make it at AFL level, and good enough to be part of a premiership team.

To pick up a superstar, one that is clearly a supreme talent even as a youngster, is a complete lottery:

1. You have to be a poorly performing team OR the kids father had to have played at least 100 games for your club.
2. You have to have been a poor club in just the right year.
3. You have to hope he wants to come play for you (Buckley anyone?).
4. He has to have the right attitude... and just how many 'superstars' are really team players, especially as they have played their entire lives to that point with clearly inferior teammates.
5. They have to be performing at Draft Camp. Players with injuries or nerves (like MOL or Goodes or Davey) may not standout at that one point in time, and suddenly having a high pick becomes less relevant.

Its a lottery. Having said that, taking established and mature-bodied 22yr olds instead of untried 17/18yr olds is not a bad policy.

[Snowy]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Well of course. The draft is always better next year.

That might seem true but from about May this year every recruiter interviewed has talked up the 2006 crop. I saw a few of the likely top tenners play and they're good. I think next year will have the guaranteed superstars. Mantra should be trade out of it at your peril.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by Snowy
That might seem true but from about May this year every recruiter interviewed has talked up the 2006 crop. I saw a few of the likely top tenners play and they're good. I think next year will have the guaranteed superstars. Mantra should be trade out of it at your peril.

I hope we're not eligible for a top 10 pick next year.

[Old Royboy]

How was our premiership team put together?

1st round picks ? 3
Fosdike(3), B1(8),Crouch(8)
Traded 1st round picks ? 4
Hall (13,17,45), Williams(8,39), Ball(11,41), Jolly(15)
2nd round picks ? 3
Dempster(34F/S), NOG(24), LRT(29zone)
Traded 2nd round ? 1
Davis(21)
3rd Round Picks ?2
O?Laughlan(40), Goodes(43)
4th round picks ? 3
Buchanan(52), O?Keefe(56), Schneider(60) ? in three consecutive years.
Rookies elevations - 3
Kirk, Bevan, Kenelley
Freebies (old zone selections) ? 2
Barry, Matthews
Freebie PSD ? 1
B2(3)

Based on that:

Smart trading can be better than keeping 1st round picks (especially when draft is skinny)
Low digit picks are not the be-all and end-all ? look at the list, only 4 single digit numbers are there in over 10 years of recruiting.
Losing low selections does not mean there is no quality ? we have eight gun players picked 3rd round or lower (including the one reject)

As long as Sydney employ smart people to do the recruiting we should trust their judgement. The football community can say what they like, I?m happy to support the no Richard Cranium/SFB principle.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by Old Royboy
As long as Sydney employ smart people to do the recruiting we should trust their judgement. The football community can say what they like, I?m happy to support the no Richard Cranium/SFB principle.

I'm with you on this ORB. Everyone on RWO is entitled to their opinion but in the end we should trust our recruiting and coaching staff who have more expertise and knowledge than most of the people on RWO combined.