Draft review

[Charlie]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by Sanecow
So you would have lied to him and paid him a Senior salary to play in Canberra?

It's not a lie.

Outside the 21 left that played on GF day, and say Doyle as a replacement for Ball... I'd put Richards, McVeigh and Vogels ahead of Saddington right now. I'd expect Malceski to join them quickly... but he would have played senior matches next year.

[barry]

Originally posted by midaro
Your missing the point of the OP.

When St. Kilda used their Pick 19, there was only a small chance that the player they selected would turn out to be a champion. As Roos' quotes suggest he may not have played a single game in the firsts or may have been delisted after a few years. His probability of being a champion was 0.3 (number out of thin air).

When we traded for Barry Hall, he was a known quantity, the probability of him being a champion was approching 1.0.

That's why the three picks we gave St kilda for Hall weren't over the price, because the probability of any of them gleaning a champion is back down to 0.3 (give or take).
0.3+0.3+0.3=0.9 which is still less than Hall at 0.99.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

RIght now Barry Hall is worth a 1.0, but back when we got him, he was still potential, and could have done a knee, been suspended 12 games a year, or become a boxer. He'd improved to 0.7 at the time of drafting IMO.

[Sanecow]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by Charlie
Outside the 21 left that played on GF day, and say Doyle as a replacement for Ball... I'd put Richards, McVeigh and Vogels ahead of Saddington right now. I'd expect Malceski to join them quickly... but he would have played senior matches next year.

Seven games in the seniors this year and another injury isn't a great set-up for next year. We would have paid a man for sitting around hoping for four team mates to get injured so he could snatch another handful of games. Better to offload him and give a young guy a chance.

[giant]

Originally posted by barry
RIght now Barry Hall is worth a 1.0, but back when we got him, he was still potential, and could have done a knee, been suspended 12 games a year, or become a boxer. He'd improved to 0.7 at the time of drafting IMO.

Your arithmetic might differ but Midaro's logic still applies. Think of pricing an option....

[midaro]

Originally posted by barry
RIght now Barry Hall is worth a 1.0, but back when we got him, he was still potential, and could have done a knee, been suspended 12 games a year, or become a boxer. He'd improved to 0.7 at the time of drafting IMO.

Potata/Potatow
... I was using 'champion' in its most liberal sense, (replace with 'good to very good player' as per the OP - I just didn't want to keep writing it )
...and 3 players are 3 times more likely to do a knee than one.

[giant]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by Sanecow
Seven games in the seniors this year and another injury isn't a great set-up for next year. We would have paid a man for sitting around hoping for four team mates to get injured so he could snatch another handful of games. Better to offload him and give a young guy a chance.

Agreed. No Saddo does not impact in the slightest our prospects for 2006. Would've been nice to get more for him but I'm presuming the Blues were the only ones interested & they were willing to play the PSD card if necessary.

Good luck Saddo.

[barry]

Originally posted by giant
Your arithmetic might differ but Midaro's logic still applies. Think of pricing an option....

He's only now knocked into in-the-money.

[Nico]

Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by midaro
All I ask Nico, is that you tell me approximately how long we have to wait, before we're able to criticise anything done by anyone who was involved with the premiership.
I assume it's some period greater than now, but less than 72 years. Right? :rollseyes:

Hey, I am entitled to my opinion too. I happen to think that Barham (and the footy media says it also) is a very astute recruiter and Roos an outstanding judge of a footballer and player developer. Barham has rarely got it wrong and if I recollect correctly we didn't trade last year and won the flag.

Midaro, you too are entitled to your opinion, but maybe you should wait a little longer to see who we delist and who we draft in both drafts, then you may see the BIGGER picture at which they are aiming.

I cant see the point of holding on to players that are either not up to it or the club sees as not being able to break into the ones.
I suggest they will be blooding some of those young blokes who have not had a go yet, rather then keep a couple they believe wont make it. Doubt Saddo will bite us on the bum.

Could still be a few deisitings.

[Plugger46]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by Nico
I cant see the point of holding on to players that are either not up to it or the club sees as not being able to break into the ones.

That's the one.

[midaro]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Depth?

[Plugger46]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by midaro
Depth?

So you're willing to hold onto a bloke who is only a chance to play, if we have a heap of injuries?

[midaro]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by Plugger46
So you're willing to hold onto a bloke who is only a chance to play, if we have a heap of injuries?

When he's experienced, a genuine utility and contracted?
As opposed to trading him for as close to nothing as makes no difference?

Yes.

[Sean]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Worst trading... ever.

Originally posted by midaro
When he's experienced, a genuine utility and contracted?
As opposed to trading him for as close to nothing as makes no difference?

Yes.

They are the positives but you need to look at both sides. He didn't want to play for us anymore. Is paid around $220,000 per year to play reserves. Would possibly get a firsts spot ahead of a young guy that would benefit from it more.

Basically, he didn't want to be here so chances are he wouldn't train or play well enough to be of any use to us at all.

[Nico]

We won the flag by recruiting a certain way. Last year we recruited youth with the rookie draft. Watch for the same.

I repeat, WE WON THE FLAG.

[Nico]

The "old depth argument"

This gets trotted out every year.

Did we have depth in 2005. Debatable as we had a dream run with injuries so our depth wasnt tested when it counted.

Saddo would not have got a game before Voges anyway or even Schaubes. Depth, mmm. Did Saddo really add to our depth?