The road to 4th.

[Go Swannies]

And Carey will probably be in the stands - that's about where he was when he took the winning mark against us last year.

[timr]

A good web-site for the speculators and dreamers!

http://www.allthestats.com/stats/ladderpredict.asp

[barry]

Originally posted by timr
A good web-site for the speculators and dreamers!

http://www.allthestats.com/stats/ladderpredict.asp

too complicated. The only thing we need to know is that 14 wins (thats dropping only 2 from here on in), is a good chance at 4th spot.
Over the last 6 years:
14 wins + good % = 4th, 4th, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd
14 wins + poor % = 5th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 4th, 4th
Even 13 wins = 6th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th, 5th

[NMWBloods]

It's quite feasible that 14 wins will not produce 4th spot, given where the top 4 are now.

[Doctor J.]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
It's quite feasible that 14 wins will not produce 4th spot, given where the top 4 are now.

Agree.

The two things that will come back to haunt us are firstly our inferior percentage to those currently in the top four, and secondly the loss to Richmond in round 7

None of the teams in the top 4 will have dropped a game to Richmond. Our loss to them is as good as giving the top 4 an 8 point headstart.

[Mark]

The Richmond loss still hurting i see DRJ !

Agree though was a shocker and could ultimately cost us.

The mob down at the hollow shapes up as a very big game for us IMHO. Win that one and i think we are a big chance of picking up enough points to sneak in the four. We need a big win though our % is not too flash and there are not any obvious ones.

[Doctor J.]

Originally posted by Mark
The Richmond loss still hurting i see DRJ !

Agree though was a shocker and could ultimately cost us.

Mate I don't mind a loss, and as a Swans supporter I certainly am used to dealing with them, but losing to that inferior coachless, leaderless (Wayne Campbell captain hee hee, good one that) rabble, just beyond belief!!!!!

As I said, will cost us big time this year. Playing catch up footy since that loss.

Dr J heading back to the ward for more therapy.......

[Mark]

Originally posted by Doctor J.
Dr J heading back to the ward for more therapy.......

LOL !

C'mon, Wayne inspires his team with guts, determination and desperation at the ball !!!!

I think that is why he was chosen anyway !!!!

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
It's quite feasible that 14 wins will not produce 4th spot, given where the top 4 are now.

why ?

[monopoly19]

Originally posted by barry
why ?

Because the top 4 sides now sit on 11 and 10 wins, and generally you'd expect sides that sit that high after 14 rounds to win more than they lose over the last 8 weeks (or at least that's why I think it'll be hard to make top 4 without 15 wins, or at least very good percentage and 14 wins).

I can't believe how the top 8 looks at the moment: 44, 40, 40, 40, 32, 32, 32, 32. That's crazy!

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by barry
why ?

St Kilda - 11-3 - should win at least 3 more.

Brisbane - 10-4 - should win at least 4 more.

Port - 10-4 - should win at least 4 more.

Melbourne - 10-4 - reasonable chance of winning at least 4 more.

These teams have a % advantage of at least 13% over us.

We need to catch up 2 games and a net improvement of approximately 150 points in For/Against - that's a big ask with 8 games to go and the quality of opposition we will be facing, and given that our average winning margin has been only 21 points this year.

Our only realistic chances of % boosting games are - Adelaide, Kangaroos, Essendon, and Richmond. None of these are highly likely, although are possible.

Unless they have an enormous form slump, I can't imagine the top 4 % dropping a lot given their remaining games.

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods

Melbourne - 10-4 - reasonable chance of winning at least 4 more.

These teams have a % advantage of at least 13% over us.

We need to catch up 2 games and a net improvement of approximately 150 points in For/Against - that's a big ask with 8 games to go and the quality of opposition we will be facing, and given that our average winning margin has been only 21 points this year.

Just taking Melbourne as an example. If they win 4, lose 4, assuming they lose by the same margin they win, then they will drop by around 5% to 110% (Simply by not maintaining their current rate).

We need to win 6/8, so assuming the 2 loses cancel out the 2 wins, we have 4 games to increase our % to above 110%. Thats about 25 points per game roughly.

Not that impossible.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by barry
Just taking Melbourne as an example. If they win 4, lose 4, assuming they lose by the same margin they win, then they will drop by around 5% to 110% (Simply by not maintaining their current rate).

We need to win 6/8, so assuming the 2 loses cancel out the 2 wins, we have 4 games to increase our % to above 110%. Thats about 25 points per game roughly.

Not that impossible.

That won't quite do it.

Let's assume that Melbourne's average games score 100 pts each, +- 10 pts depending on whether they win or not.

Therefore after 8 games they will add 800 onto their For and Against.

This will give them a percentage of 110% as you say.

Now let's say we score 90 pts each in our games on average, +-10 pts on 4 of the games, plus say 105-80 on the extra 4 winning games.

This gives us a percentage of 107%.

If we want to break 110%, those extra 4 "big win" games need to produce wins of 40 points.

Who are we going to get them against - Adelaide, Richmond, Kangaroos...? who else?

This is why I was so annoyed with such small wins against teams we should have beaten well (eg: Carlton, Hawthorn) and losses we should not have had (eg: Richmond).

Of course it's not impossible, but certainly unlikely.

[swansrule100]

the swans are capable of winning all their games... sadly we are also a team capable of losing all the games we have left... it will be tough if we cant make top 4 we need a home final week 1 and 5th may be as good as 4th if not better.

Least 5th we get home final week one and go to week 2 with confidence, where as 4th we may get flogged up in brisbane or at docklands and be struggling into the second week

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
That won't quite do it.

Let's assume that Melbourne's average games score 100 pts each, +- 10 pts depending on whether they win or not.

Therefore after 8 games they will add 800 onto their For and Against.

This will give them a percentage of 110% as you say.

Now let's say we score 90 pts each in our games on average, +-10 pts on 4 of the games, plus say 105-80 on the extra 4 winning games.

Why are we scoring 90, yet the D's score 100 ?

Anyway, All I was showing that its certainly possible, and if we win 6/8 we are a good chance to make the 4.

Flog Melbourne by 60, and we're a shoe-in!