Smoke and mirrors

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  • sharpie
    On the Rookie List
    • Jul 2003
    • 1588

    #61
    Originally posted by NMWBloods
    You mean things like ""At the end of the day they're probably too good anyway and (they'll) probably get over the top of you but at least it gives you an opportunity."

    Oops... that was Roos...

    Who else could be "doom and gloom"?

    For my own interest, I found what I wrote after round 6...



    It was also a time when you thought that talking about our 2003 accuracy as "unsustainably high" was "a nonsense statement".
    If ever I'd seen a bad case of the "I Told You So"s
    Visit my eBay store -

    10% off for mentioning RWO when you buy. Great Christmas presents!

    Comment

    • Piobaireachd
      On the Rookie List
      • Aug 2005
      • 428

      #62
      Originally posted by NMWBloods
      Your snide response was 'just a different opinion'?
      You think that was snide? You haven't seen snide yet
      An instrument with only 9 notes! Surely it's easy to play?
      Enjoy the Coastals Experience!

      Comment

      • Go Swannies
        Veterans List
        • Sep 2003
        • 5697

        #63
        Here we go again, As I tried to explain at the time, "unsustainably high" suggests that a particular group of players and coach can't maintain a level of excellence above the norm. So Valentino Rossi maintains an "unsustainably high" level of success in motorcycle racing.

        As I also pointed out at the time, if we think that teams must eventually return to a norm, then our remarkably inaccurate goal kicking early in the season was "unsustainably low". And, you were right - so it proved. Presumably without any effort on the part of the players and their coaches to improve, they are now in the crowded part of the beloved bell curve.

        However, I'm still confused over the time period within which the norm is irresistible. Was the Swan's poor kicking in the Crows game just an aberration, a statistical anomally or merely the result of excellent defensive pressure? In the longer term, the Lions run of winning the big games was unsustainable. You were right again - three years of flags seems to be it for this group and now they are on their way back into the middle of the pack. So, it appears that the term over which the mean prevails is somewhere between two hours and five years.

        Personally, I'm hoping the Swans can lift themselves out of mediocrity just long enough to win the flag this year. Then my joy will be both sustained and excessive.

        Comment

        • NMWBloods
          Taking Refuge!!
          • Jan 2003
          • 15819

          #64
          Originally posted by Piobaireachd
          You think that was snide? You haven't seen snide yet
          Can hardly wait.
          Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

          "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

          Comment

          • NMWBloods
            Taking Refuge!!
            • Jan 2003
            • 15819

            #65
            Originally posted by Go Swannies
            Here we go again, As I tried to explain at the time, "unsustainably high" suggests that a particular group of players and coach can't maintain a level of excellence above the norm. So Valentino Rossi maintains an "unsustainably high" level of success in motorcycle racing.

            As I also pointed out at the time, if we think that teams must eventually return to a norm, then our remarkably inaccurate goal kicking early in the season was "unsustainably low". And, you were right - so it proved. Presumably without any effort on the part of the players and their coaches to improve, they are now in the crowded part of the beloved bell curve.

            However, I'm still confused over the time period within which the norm is irresistible. Was the Swan's poor kicking in the Crows game just an aberration, a statistical anomally or merely the result of excellent defensive pressure? In the longer term, the Lions run of winning the big games was unsustainable. You were right again - three years of flags seems to be it for this group and now they are on their way back into the middle of the pack. So, it appears that the term over which the mean prevails is somewhere between two hours and five years.
            Ah your sarcasm and wit just manages to overwhelm your understanding slightly...
            Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

            "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

            Comment

            • NMWBloods
              Taking Refuge!!
              • Jan 2003
              • 15819

              #66
              Originally posted by sharpie
              If ever I'd seen a bad case of the "I Told You So"s
              I have to help out GoSwannies - makes lot of statements, fails to remember them, and then responds with sarcasm when he doesn't understand the explanation.
              Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

              "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

              Comment

              • Go Swannies
                Veterans List
                • Sep 2003
                • 5697

                #67
                Originally posted by NMWBloods
                You mean things like ""At the end of the day they're probably too good anyway and (they'll) probably get over the top of you but at least it gives you an opportunity."

                Oops... that was Roos...

                Who else could be "doom and gloom"?

                For my own interest, I found what I wrote after round 6...



                It was also a time when you thought that talking about our 2003 accuracy as "unsustainably high" was "a nonsense statement".
                That was the explanation?

                Comment

                • barry
                  Veterans List
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 8499

                  #68
                  Originally posted by NMWBloods
                  [B]Most football stats are done on a post and pre war basis. Of course, there are also the post mid-1980s and post-1990s ones also when there are more interstate teams.


                  Yep. Then again, there are only 2 finals in that period for us so it hardly affects the analysis.

                  Then why include them. They are totally irrelevant.
                  [B]

                  0-9 in Melbourne since 1986, and 0-5 from 1996.
                  Now we are getting somewhere. I assume post-96 for us was when home finals were given.

                  NM - GF 96. No.
                  Bulldogs - EF 97. 3 places 2 wins.
                  Essendon - EF 99. Yes.
                  Hawthorn - EF 01. 1 place 1 win.
                  St Kilda - SF 04. 3 places 3 wins.
                  If the NM game was played in SYdney, we would have won IMO.

                  Both Hawthorn and StKilda were struggling for form when they came into the games.
                  Irrelevant. Against North we had injury and off field drama, and Essendon we limped into the finals. It evens out.

                  So once the real stats come out, and you've been shown up again for using irrelevant stats to push an agenda, its:
                  4-2 in Sydney
                  1-0 in Adelaide
                  0-5 in Melbourne
                  --------
                  5-7 total

                  Now, I think few could expect anything other than say:
                  5-1 in Sydney
                  0-1 in Adelaide
                  1-5 in Melbourne
                  ---------
                  6-7 total.

                  We are only one game off an "average" return on finals, and considering in that period we've only had one team (96) really capable of winning it, I dont see any cause for concern, other than it would be nice to get the Melbourne monkey off our back which essentially means making another GF.

                  How much more will the MCG be a neutral venue in the GF than otherwise?
                  By playing another non-vic side silly.

                  Comment

                  • NMWBloods
                    Taking Refuge!!
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 15819

                    #69
                    Originally posted by Go Swannies
                    That was the explanation?
                    No - I explained it last time.
                    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                    Comment

                    • Go Swannies
                      Veterans List
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 5697

                      #70
                      Originally posted by NMWBloods
                      No - I explained it last time.
                      No more convincingly.

                      Comment

                      • NMWBloods
                        Taking Refuge!!
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 15819

                        #71
                        Originally posted by barry
                        So once the real stats come out, and you've been shown up again for using irrelevant stats to push an agenda, its:
                        And you've demonstrated again that despite all your protestations, you love a fight!

                        4-2 in Sydney
                        1-0 in Adelaide
                        0-5 in Melbourne
                        --------
                        5-7 total

                        Now, I think few could expect anything other than say:
                        5-1 in Sydney
                        0-1 in Adelaide
                        1-5 in Melbourne
                        ---------
                        6-7 total.
                        Adelaide's record at the MCG is 5-3 since 1997 (6-5 in Melbourne overall), so why not expect more in Melbourne?
                        Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                        "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                        Comment

                        • NMWBloods
                          Taking Refuge!!
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 15819

                          #72
                          Originally posted by Go Swannies
                          No more convincingly.
                          You think it's sustainable for a team to have an accuracy level that high for an extended number of years, then go ahead and believe it...

                          If you can't tell the difference between impacts over years and during a game, then so be it...

                          If you want to resort to sarcasm and bring in strawman arguments such as Brisbane's flags, then go ahead...
                          Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                          "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                          Comment

                          • Piobaireachd
                            On the Rookie List
                            • Aug 2005
                            • 428

                            #73
                            Originally posted by barry

                            ... other than it would be nice to get the Melbourne monkey off our back which essentially means making another GF.

                            Change "making" to Winning
                            An instrument with only 9 notes! Surely it's easy to play?
                            Enjoy the Coastals Experience!

                            Comment

                            • Go Swannies
                              Veterans List
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 5697

                              #74
                              Originally posted by NMWBloods
                              You think it's sustainable for a team to have an accuracy level that high for an extended number of years, then go ahead and believe it...
                              If our forwards were Gary Ablett and Plugger (or even Baz and Magic, with a role for ROK and Nick D) then yes I do. I admire excellence.

                              Comment

                              • barry
                                Veterans List
                                • Jan 2003
                                • 8499

                                #75
                                Originally posted by NMWBloods

                                Adelaide's record at the MCG is 5-3 since 1997 (6-5 in Melbourne overall), so why not expect more in Melbourne?
                                Very good records for Adelaide. But even you'd conceed Adelaide really won flags in the late 90's the hard way. Not repeated since, or before. An exception to the rule.

                                If we win say 5-3 in Melbourne, we could conversely lose 3-5 in Sydney. No ?


                                Anyway, reinforcing the reason to disregards pre 96 finals stats, is the information which surfaced this year from the Brisbane Lions (benchmark travelling team), which stated that when they have to travel 2 weeks in a row, it reduces their expectation of the 2nd win to under 40%. Amplify that in a finals context and its not hard to see why the capper years swans bombed out.

                                That fact is also a risk for our first final which involves travel after round 22's trip to Melbourne.

                                Comment

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