2025 List Management

[dejavoodoo44]

The latest Cal Twomey draft. Carlton fans would've had a variety of adverse reactions seeing Dean at 3. Almost as head scratching, is our Harry Kyle at 16. Must have a keen admirer somewhere.

Cal Twomey's 2025 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, whispers - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1453760

[dejavoodoo44]

Oh, and Carmichael is at 29. And Twomey has GWS bidding on Kyle at 16.

[imuninformedtwo]

And Fox has Hawks bidding on Kyle at 14. It’s pretty clear his rate of development and upside has people tantalised, and I kind of get it compared to the other two. Carmichael is a neat, solid player but no more. And King is all athlete, but lacking in footy IQ.

Kudos to Cal Twomey, who’s been plugging him since June.

[BRS328]

Sure, but I'd be a touch hesitant to further dilute our future draft stocks, given that we've already traded out our 26 and 27 first rounders. Though of course, the likelihood of doing that, does depend on how highly our recruiters rate our current crop. And probably how they rate the future players coming through the academy.

Currently our most highly rated prospects for 2026 are McCartney and the Jenkin twins. McCartney is a bit like King, in that, he has the occasional spell where he looks like he should be a high pick, but then has longer periods where he seems a bit ordinary. There's also plenty of talk that he'll choose North as a F/S. Personally, I really like the Jenkin twins, but if they remain skinny kids, they're more likely to go later in the draft. However, if they bulk up a bit, then we might have to spend plenty of draft capital to keep them both. And I really wouldn't like to just take one of them. There's also a few others that I think could stake a claim over the next season: McGroder, Blackwell-Smith, Beavis, Luke, etc.

Decisions, decisions.

A lot will depend on how the club rate the academy players coming through next year. I have heard there are some very good prospects coming through in 2027.

[dejavoodoo44]

A lot will depend on how the club rate the academy players coming through next year. I have heard there are some very good prospects coming through in 2027.

While a lot can change over a couple of years, there did seem to be plenty of talent going around, when I saw the U16 side play at Sharks a few months ago. The guy that impressed me most was Charles McLennan: who seemed to be a very skilful midfielder, who could win his own ball and could cover plenty of ground. Monty Cairns won the Swans MVP for the championship, and he also impressed as a big bodied mid, who also looked to have plenty of forward craft. There were a few key position types who went well and a couple of running half backs, but there names escape me.

[imuninformedtwo]

The latest Cal Twomey draft. Carlton fans would've had a variety of adverse reactions seeing Dean at 3. Almost as head scratching, is our Harry Kyle at 16. Must have a keen admirer somewhere.

Cal Twomey's 2025 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, whispers - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1453760

In some ways yes, in some ways no re Kyle. This draft is a total crap shoot. One person I know in the industry said it’s harder than the COVID years as it’s all projection, and worse than the ‘16 draft in terms of talent. Reckons it’ll be one the worst drafts in history.

So clubs are looking for potential, not in terms of having a trick or two but players that have clear capacity to develop and make it easier for clubs to project what they’d become in an AFL environment. Kyle has that.

He’s a long way from a finished product and could prove a total bust but I get the interest over the other two.

[dejavoodoo44]

In some ways yes, in some ways no re Kyle. This draft is a total crap shoot. One person I know in the industry said it’s harder than the COVID years as it’s all projection, and worse than the ‘16 draft in terms of talent. Reckons it’ll be one the worst drafts in history.

So clubs are looking for potential, not in terms of having a trick or two but players that have clear capacity to develop and make it easier for clubs to project what they’d become in an AFL environment. Kyle has that.

He’s a long way from a finished product and could prove a total bust but I get the interest over the other two.

I can see why people see potential there, as he is a late convert to the game; but when I watched him pretty closely in the Allies games, I thought his disposal was quite hit or miss. So personally, I'd be a bit loath to use a high pick, on someone who gets it a lot, but then doesn't use it well. Of course, if the club feels confident that can improve, then might as well take a punt.

I tend to rate seeing the game, or footy IQ, higher than most, so Carmichael is still my preference from this academy crop.

[Dow]

I can see why people see potential there, as he is a late convert to the game; but when I watched him pretty closely in the Allies games, I thought his disposal was quite hit or miss. So personally, I'd be a bit loath to use a high pick, on someone who gets it a lot, but then doesn't use it well. Of course, if the club feels confident that can improve, then might as well take a punt.

I tend to rate seeing the game, or footy IQ, higher than most, so Carmichael is still my preference from this academy crop.

I totally agree and thats how I see it as well

[imuninformedtwo]

I can see why people see potential there, as he is a late convert to the game; but when I watched him pretty closely in the Allies games, I thought his disposal was quite hit or miss. So personally, I'd be a bit loath to use a high pick, on someone who gets it a lot, but then doesn't use it well. Of course, if the club feels confident that can improve, then might as well take a punt.

I tend to rate seeing the game, or footy IQ, higher than most, so Carmichael is still my preference from this academy crop.

I’m extremely high on footy IQ too (hence my darkness on King) and lord knows we have a great example of it on our list in Errol.

I think the issue with Kyle is whether they think he’s shown IQ relative to his footy experience, if that makes sense.

Carmichael has some. The question on him is whether he has the assets and upside to exploit it.

[Thunder Shaker]

Oh, and Carmichael is at 29. And Twomey has GWS bidding on Kyle at 16.

I ran Twomey's phantom draft through the draft simulator.

At the time of GWS's bid on Kyle at 16, Sydney has picks 25, 26, 35 and 55. Compared to my rough effort, the first three picks are one place higher and the fourth pick is one place lower (and not yet in points range).

The bid uses picks 25 and 26, giving pick 36 back. Two in, two out means pick 55 doesn't move, but pick 35 moves to pick 34 and new pick 35 slides in after it.

In Twomey's phantom draft, at pick 19, West Coast draft Beau Addinsall out of the Gold Coast Academy, after they bid for Jai Murray (Gold Coast) at pick 18. Gold Coast's points cupboard is rather bare at this point.

Also in Twomey's phantom draft, the Bulldogs' pick 14 has slid to pick 20.

At pick 29 when the Bulldogs bid on Carmichael, Sydney has picks 35, 37 and 55. West Coast received pick 36 for matching a bid.

The bid uses picks 35 and 37 and Sydney gets back pick 40.

So at this point in the draft (pick 30), Sydney has drafted Kyle at 16 and Carmichael at 29 and still holds picks 40 and 55.

Bids after this point would result in small deficits:
30 113 points
31 88 points
32 64 points
33 41 points
34 19 points
35 no deficit, 3 points left over.

[dejavoodoo44]

I ran Twomey's phantom draft through the draft simulator.

At the time of GWS's bid on Kyle at 16, Sydney has picks 25, 26, 35 and 55. Compared to my rough effort, the first three picks are one place higher and the fourth pick is one place lower (and not yet in points range).

The bid uses picks 25 and 26, giving pick 36 back. Two in, two out means pick 55 doesn't move, but pick 35 moves to pick 34 and new pick 35 slides in after it.

In Twomey's phantom draft, at pick 19, West Coast draft Beau Addinsall out of the Gold Coast Academy, after they bid for Jai Murray (Gold Coast) at pick 18. Gold Coast's points cupboard is rather bare at this point.

Also in Twomey's phantom draft, the Bulldogs' pick 14 has slid to pick 20.

At pick 29 when the Bulldogs bid on Carmichael, Sydney has picks 35, 37 and 55. West Coast received pick 36 for matching a bid.

The bid uses picks 35 and 37 and Sydney gets back pick 40.

So at this point in the draft (pick 30), Sydney has drafted Kyle at 16 and Carmichael at 29 and still holds picks 40 and 55.

Bids after this point would result in small deficits:
30 113 points
31 88 points
32 64 points
33 41 points
34 19 points
35 no deficit, 3 points left over.

Yes, that draft simulator was quite interesting and helpful to get my head around the vagaries of the draft. And fairly reassuring, as well.

[dejavoodoo44]

I’m extremely high on footy IQ too (hence my darkness on King) and lord knows we have a great example of it on our list in Errol.

I think the issue with Kyle is whether they think he’s shown IQ relative to his footy experience, if that makes sense.

Carmichael has some. The question on him is whether he has the assets and upside to exploit it.

I think he does. I've heard Beatson say a number of times, that he attached more importance to Allies form, when they were competing against the best, than academy form, when the opposition was more variable. Carmichael was the Allies MVP. He also looked entirely comfortable when given the chance with the VFL side. So, I suspect that he'll keep stepping up.

But hey, for all I know, I might be left embarrassed in a few days time, when we pass on him at pick 50.

[lwjoyner]

interesting Cal T has no bids for King inside hiis top 30. So where does he fall

[KSAS]

Cal Twomey has listed 4 open players we have shown interest in should the opportunity arise:
1. Avery Thomas - Tasmanian rebounding half back
2. Max Kondogiannis - Tall intercepting marking defender from Oakleigh Chargers
3. Sam Swadling - WA midfielder
4. Noah Roberts-Thomson - Medium forward from Sturt. Cousin of Lewis.

[BFG]

Cal got GWS bidding on Kyle at pick 16! There's some real proven talent still on the board at that point, would just be vindictive to bid then.. Doubt it happens, but we'll see