2025 List Management

[KSAS]

So we have good authorities rating our academy targets as going early and causing us grief all the way out to comfortably getting them all. Only Carmichael has a solid resume, the rest are speculative.

Going by the visions and analysis i've come across, i agree that Carmichael appears to be the more polished of the 3 Academy boys. At this very early stage, he appears most likely of the trio to make initial impact into the senior team. Perhaps even in a similar way as Gulden, despite being different type of player, such is his polish and contested marking for his size.

Can see him play variery of roles between midfield and defence. Will be interesting how he's developed.

The Club will be most prepared to go into points deficit to secure the 3 Academy boys, as shown by their willingness to forgo future 1st Rounders to secure Curnow, which we haven't done previously. This is perhaps the trait of Chris Keane & co to take more gamble in tnis space, particularly whilst we're in that perceived window.

[lwjoyner]

Maybe they new about the wild card round.

[Thunder Shaker]

Agree with you, but I believe that it would be more practical to do trades on the first night of the draft once Brisbane, GC, and Father Son’s have been decided in the first round of selection, it could be that the current Swans picks will have improved bye up to 5 spot’s and the need to trade may not be necessary. Wishful thinking on my part

On pick trading, watch Brisbane in particular. They currently hold picks 17, 23, 44, 51, 59, 68 as their first six picks; the first four bear a total of 1756 points. This allows them to match a bid on Annable at around pick 5 (1690 points with 10% discount). If the bid is later than pick 5, Brisbane may choose to make a live pick trade. A club like North Melbourne without a first-round pick could be interested in acquiring one of Brisbane's first-round picks.

This assessment is made more complex by Gold Coast having two players that could be drafted in the top 5. Gold Coast also hold two late first-round picks.

The live pick scenarios are difficult to assess. I would be surprised if no live pick trades took place in the first round involving any of the clubs with father-son or Academy prospects.

[wolftone57]

Going by the visions and analysis i've come across, i agree that Carmichael appears to be the more polished of the 3 Academy boys. At this very early stage, he appears most likely of the trio to make initial impact into the senior team. Perhaps even in a similar way as Gulden, despite being different type of player, such is his polish and contested marking for his size.

Can see him play variery of roles between midfield and defence. Will be interesting how he's developed.

The Club will be most prepared to go into points deficit to secure the 3 Academy boys, as shown by their willingness to forgo future 1st Rounders to secure Curnow, which we haven't done previously. This is perhaps the trait of Chris Keane & co to take more gamble in tnis space, particularly whilst we're in that perceived window.

Carmichael's kicking is Gulden like

[Thunder Shaker]

AFL Daily discussed Sydney's recruitment and prospects for 2026.

[dejavoodoo44]

Carmichael's kicking is Gulden like

Possibly wouldn't go that far, as I think that Errol is exceptional in his ability to occasionally see targets that no one else would see and then hit those targets, but I do think that Carmichael's footy IQ is almost as high. To me, he appears to see the game really well. That is, he constantly gets in a good position to receive the ball and to then hurt the opposition, by usually making sure that his disposals go to a team mate in a better position.

Not sure if has quite the tank of Gulden, but that could be because he's played a more structured role. Gulden's junior position seemed to be "Errol, you just run wherever you want to." While Carmichael has largely played the Jake Lloyd role of making himself an option in defence, with the occasional stint as an in and under midfielder.

With Lloyd reaching the end of his career, I can see Carmichael being a ready made replacement. Possibly even an upgrade on the two time Skilton Medallist, as I think he has a bit more defensive grunt. At times he's reminded me a bit of Nick Smith, since it appears that he really doesn't like his opponents getting the ball. One of his more notable passages of play, was actually when he turned the ball over when rebounding off the half back flank, but then immediately tracked back to interfere with the opposition's forward 50 entry, and then made another effort to go after the contested ground ball.

[BFG]

Anyone know if we've got (at this stage) any likely academy draftees in the 2026 draft?

I seem to remember that there's a couple of potential very good ones in the 2027 heavily Tasmanian influenced draft who would have played U16 this past season.

Any thoughts appreciated

[liz]

Anyone know if we've got (at this stage) any likely academy draftees in the 2026 draft?

I seem to remember that there's a couple of potential very good ones in the 2027 heavily Tasmanian influenced draft who would have played U16 this past season.

Any thoughts appreciated

Aiden McCartney is the highest profile prospect for next year’s draft. Son of Jason so eligible as FS to North.

There’s a pair of twins who both made the U17 exhibition game played as a GF warm up act. William and Guy Jenkin. Both on the smaller side (<180cm and slightly built), outside wing/flank players with good pace and decent skills.

Then there’s McGroder who’s very raw as a football but a tall, ultra-athletic player. So athletic that he’s performed very well at underage international athletics meets/championships and may opt to follow a track and field career over football.

There’s a defender - not really a small but maybe not quite key position height, unless he has a growth spurt - who caught the eye early in the season as an underager in the academy series but then disappeared for the second half of the season. Don’t know if he was injured or just didn’t make the cut for U18 sides as an underager. Cody Beavis.

[Thunder Shaker]

Twomey's November rankings are up on the AFL website. Max King at 27, Harry Kyle at 28.

Of note is the ratings of other Academy and father-son players. Zeke Uwland (2), Dylan Patterson (4), Daniel Annable (5) and Harry Dean (8) will use up a few picks in bid matching, enhancing the value of Sydney's middling picks a bit. Adam Sweid (24) is in Essendon's NGA and Jack Ison (26) is in Carlton's NGA. Beau Addinsall (30) is tied to Gold Coast.

It might be an interesting exercise to do a phantom draft with these players at these places to see how much they use up in picks.

[Thunder Shaker]

I've created a dubious spreadsheet to evaluate bid matching inside the top 10. I call the spreadsheet "dubious" because I haven't checked it closely for errors. Here's what I found.

Picks held (up to 72):
Brisbane: 17, 23, 44, 51, 59, 68.
Carlton: Carlton: 9, 11, 43, 54, 67, 72.
Gold Coast: 15, 18, 24, 28, 29, 36, 52.
Sydney: 31, 32, 42, 63.

Gold Coast matches a bid on Uwland at 2. This uses up picks 15, 18 and 24. Gold Coast get a new pick at 43 (184 points).
Gold Coast matches a bid on Patterson at 4. This uses up picks 25, 26, 33, 43 and 50. Gold Coast get a new pick at 54 (14 points).
Brisbane matches a bid on Annable at 5. This uses up picks 16 and 21. Brisbane get a new pick at 53 (28 points).
Carlton matches a bid on Dean at 8. This uses up pick 9. Carlton gets a new pick at 51 (57 points).

After these four bids are matched, Sydney holds picks 23, 24, 33 and 56. I am confident that Sydney will match bids.

[BFG]

The new points table makes it very difficult for GC and Brisbane to pick swap for later picks.

Carlton are the interesting club as Dean is likely to get bid on just before their picks 9 and 11. Carlton also need 2026 picks for Walker who is touted as top three so may slip back and grab an extra 2026 pick in the process.

I doubt we have anything to worry about, we seem well placed.

[Thunder Shaker]

The new points table makes it very difficult for GC and Brisbane to pick swap for later picks.

Carlton are the interesting club as Dean is likely to get bid on just before their picks 9 and 11. Carlton also need 2026 picks for Walker who is touted as top three so may slip back and grab an extra 2026 pick in the process.

I doubt we have anything to worry about, we seem well placed.

Carlton is indeed interesting. If Dean is still on the board when Carlton is on the clock with their first pick (9), they won't draft him then. They will draft him with their second pick (11) because their next pick is currently pick 43. However, I think Dean will be bid on before Carlton's first pick.

[imuninformedtwo]

I've created a dubious spreadsheet to evaluate bid matching inside the top 10. I call the spreadsheet "dubious" because I haven't checked it closely for errors. Here's what I found.

Picks held (up to 72):
Brisbane: 17, 23, 44, 51, 59, 68.
Carlton: Carlton: 9, 11, 43, 54, 67, 72.
Gold Coast: 15, 18, 24, 28, 29, 36, 52.
Sydney: 31, 32, 42, 63.

Gold Coast matches a bid on Uwland at 2. This uses up picks 15, 18 and 24. Gold Coast get a new pick at 43 (184 points).
Gold Coast matches a bid on Patterson at 4. This uses up picks 25, 26, 33, 43 and 50. Gold Coast get a new pick at 54 (14 points).
Brisbane matches a bid on Annable at 5. This uses up picks 16 and 21. Brisbane get a new pick at 53 (28 points).
Carlton matches a bid on Dean at 8. This uses up pick 9. Carlton gets a new pick at 51 (57 points).

After these four bids are matched, Sydney holds picks 23, 24, 33 and 56. I am confident that Sydney will match bids.

That puts everything in perspective in terms of why we will be able to cover off bids, and even have a speccie late.

As for next year, my understanding is McCarthy is all but certain to go to Norf. It’s not locked in, but he is leaning that way, I understand.

[The_Budds]

Do we think it'll just be getting our academy kids or will we take any open draft prospects?

[goswannies]

Do we think it'll just be getting our academy kids or will we take any open draft prospects?

Surely we’ll still go best available? What are the odds of our academy kids always being the best we can choose at that point in time?