2025 List Management

[BRS328]

now getting worried that cunow cost WILL COST us in drfat. Fox footy just released its final Power Ranking with King at 22, kyle 24 and Carmichael 29. No rankings for chamberlain. Thergold ranked 31
Hope we have enough points to match or else our acadeny kids will go elsewhere and if so WHY have an academy.

There is likely to be a change in the drafting rules for Father Sons and Academy players in the very near future, possibly next year, that will restrict all clubs to a maximum of two players per year from either category.

While it may seem harsh, there is a need for some control to prevent some of the pick trades being done by all clubs, that keep pushing early draft picks further out.

It is rare for the Swans to have 3 players rated in the top 40, and it does show that the academy is a very worthwhile investment.
We lost Cochrane last year to Collingwood because the club felt he was overvalued at that point. Time will tell if it was the right derision, but at this stage it appears to be the correct one.

Regardless, I think the Academy is a great investment in many aspects. The fact is that approximately 99% of these players will never make it to the top level, but the personal development/ experiences will hopefully have positive impacts on their lives. Add to this the fact that families become involved and become lifelong supporters of the club.

In my opinion it would be foolish to abandon the Academies, and fortunately the club appears to agree with this.

Having said all that I am confident that the club will find away to get all three players you mentioned onto the list in the coming draft

[Thunder Shaker]

Gettable is suggesting that the Swans Academy players could start attracting bids as early as pick 15 and the Swans may not match a bid that early. (starts at 26:41)
* King and Kyle pick 18 to 25
* Carmichael interest starting at pick 15, if bid on that early Swans may not match

[liz]

Gettable is suggesting that the Swans Academy players could start attracting bids as early as pick 15 and the Swans may not match a bid that early. (starts at 26:41)
* King and Kyle pick 18 to 25
* Carmichael interest starting at pick 15, if bid on that early Swans may not match

I wonder how Twomey reconciles the whispers he's hearing from clubs re interest in Swans academy players with him not even having Carmichael in his top 30.

It's very hard to place where players "should go" when you've only seen some of them. But based on his traits, it doesn't seem outrageous that Carmichael might be of interest to a club at that kind of range, especially in a draft often described as lacking depth (and high level top end talent). I don't think he projects as a superstar, but I do think he projects as a safe-ish option who is more likely to play senior football at some point than not.

It's important to remember that the draft doesn't create a consensus ranking of the available players. It only takes one club at a certain point in a draft to be interested in a player for them to be drafted at that point. Similarly, a player who is ranked as second most desirable by many clubs may yet sink down the draft as they choose to go with their other option. It's why the terminology of "bolters" and "sliders" is a bit non-sensical (as is the inevitable draft night commentary from, in particular, Mick Ablett, who will describe every player taken after pick 20 as unbelievable value and one he can't believe slid that low).

[Auntie.Gerald]

I think our recruitment strategy has been fascinating so far last few years

it appears we have stacked our mids and forward strength to elevaiate pressure on our backline

ie if scoreboard pressure and midfield dominance minimises the “cleanness” of opposition entries into our backline via slicing up the opposition ……then our weighting towards forwards and mids over an above a new key dominant defender joining the swans is well justified

Plus we have a few emerging tall defenders that must be ready for action in the AFL come 2026

[Thunder Shaker]

I wonder how Twomey reconciles the whispers he's hearing from clubs re interest in Swans academy players with him not even having Carmichael in his top 30.

Twomey's rankings: Carmichael not in top 30.
Mutterings from clubs: maybe he gets drafted in the 15 to 20 range.
Speculation by Twomey: Sydney may not match a bid that early.
BFG's observation: if clubs bid on our academy players higher than we rate them, that club could get the player.

Conclusion: Sydney rates Carmichael at about the same level as Twomey, outside top 30 (but I suspect in the 35 to 40 range).

My view: there's always plan B, luring such a player back to Sydney with the go home factor if they turn out to be a good player.

[liz]

Twomey's rankings: Carmichael not in top 30.
Mutterings from clubs: maybe he gets drafted in the 15 to 20 range.
Speculation by Twomey: Sydney may not match a bid that early.
BFG's observation: if clubs bid on our academy players higher than we rate them, that club could get the player.

Conclusion: Sydney rates Carmichael at about the same level as Twomey, outside top 30 (but I suspect in the 35 to 40 range).

My view: there's always plan B, luring such a player back to Sydney with the go home factor if they turn out to be a good player.

Alternative conclusion is that Twomey may not have any idea how Sydney rates him (or any of our academy prospects). He does have contacts at the clubs and with managers so I’m not in a position to question mumblings he might have heard. But I suspect he’s guessing (or making stuff up) when it comes to how Sydney might rate those players.

[Thunder Shaker]

Alternative conclusion is that Twomey may not have any idea how Sydney rates him (or any of our academy prospects). He does have contacts at the clubs and with managers so I’m not in a position to question mumblings he might have heard. But I suspect he’s guessing (or making stuff up) when it comes to how Sydney might rate those players.

A fair assessment. Sydney has been a bit unpredictable in previous drafts as far as Twomey is concerned.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Does anyone else see a bit of an 18yr old Luke Parker re Carmichael ?

https://central.rookieme.com/afl/player/lachlan-carmichael/

[liz]

A fair assessment. Sydney has been a bit unpredictable in previous drafts as far as Twomey is concerned.

Twomey obviously gets good mail from somewhere because, especially close to the draft, he usually nails most of the top 10 and gets a few more right. I don't really understand his sources because if I were a club I wouldn't be making my ratings of players known. I suspect he gets most of his insights from player managers - ie which clubs have been showing the greatest interest in their clients.

His hit rate - based on vague memory and perception, rather than detailed analysis - on academy bids is varied. Obviously the top few he can predict within a few spots. But players do seem to get bid upon later than he thinks. I guess there's a bit of tactics, a bit of "they can't get this bloke cheaper than this pick", combined with an element of genuine interest in the player being bid upon.

[Auntie.Gerald]

https://youtu.be/Ph7yGwK6F0I?si=1yfuKBSto51eb4cP

lachlan Carmichael reminds me a little of the videos I saw of Luke Parker at the same age for his draft high lights

composure, rugged, solid kick and decision making…..strongly built for his age and similar height ie 184cm

i suspect like say Chad or Errol he will be looked at seriously between pick 30 and 40 given there are probably players similar to Carmichael in the draft but not many……and as we know he maybe seen by a team like North Melbourne as a player in the 20s

If required ….I’m guessing we may have a plan B of trading in a pick for this draft live on the night that we trade for a future pick either 2026 or 2027

“Clubs are still able to swap picks around the competition in the buildup and during the draft, with the order having potential to change right up into the evening“

the video in this thread shows a player that never stops with 32 disposals vs VIC

his stats vs VIC and WA are outlined at the beginning of the video 32 disposals and 28 disposals respectively but an Errol Gulden level of score involvements in both games

[lwjoyner]

very disappointed to see the arrival of ollie and wil at blues headquarters. 2 players we should not have lost. price for curnow too high and it might scuttle our academy drafting this year.

[Dow]

very disappointed to see the arrival of ollie and wil at blues headquarters. 2 players we should not have lost. price for curnow too high and it might scuttle our academy drafting this year.

The price in the end may have been higher than we all thought we should have paid, but I think the club has made the right move moving on both players especially Ollie who had been struggling for consistency for the last few years - I wish them both luck

[Thunder Shaker]

Twomey obviously gets good mail from somewhere because, especially close to the draft, he usually nails most of the top 10 and gets a few more right. I don't really understand his sources because if I were a club I wouldn't be making my ratings of players known. I suspect he gets most of his insights from player managers - ie which clubs have been showing the greatest interest in their clients.

His hit rate - based on vague memory and perception, rather than detailed analysis - on academy bids is varied. Obviously the top few he can predict within a few spots. But players do seem to get bid upon later than he thinks. I guess there's a bit of tactics, a bit of "they can't get this bloke cheaper than this pick", combined with an element of genuine interest in the player being bid upon.

I think Twomey also has insights about list deficiencies in various clubs as well. It's hard to conduct a phantom draft without knowing what kind of players clubs need. He is also good at rating individual players. Knowing which clubs are likely to draft the best available player at their pick also helps.

In a real draft, the choice of the best available player is particularly prominent when a club makes a bid for an Academy player, and then the club selects a different kind of player after the bid is matched. This happens fairly often. The exact timing on these bids is a bit murkier as you suggest. One factor that also affects Academy bids is when a club is on the clock and wants a bit more thinking time, either to choose the player they want or to negotiate a live pick trade. It is not unusual for a club to make a bid on an Academy player, then make a live pick trade instead of choosing another player. Examples: (1) 2022 draft, Sydney bid on two players with pick 16 and 17, then traded out the pick to Hawthorn while on the clock. (2) 2019 draft, Carlton made bids at pick 9 and pick 10, then traded the pick to Gold Coast. Twomey generally excludes live pick trades in his phantom drafts because they are unpredictable.

[KSAS]

Will be sad to see both Ollie & Wilbur in navy blue next year. They will always be loved Swans. But it gives our team a much needed new look with the draftees spearheaded by Charlie and opportunities for others to stake claim (Dattoli, Co Warner, Sheldrick, Bowman, Andrews etc...).

With Rampe & Lloyd both being delisted to be rookied, it signals 2026 will their final year and won't be auto selections, but handy deptth players just the same. Particularly Rampe.

Excited what the Academy boys could bring and hope the cards fall our way on the night to draft all 4 of them (King, Kylie, Carmichael & possibly Chamberlain).

A tall versatile forward, a Luke Parker type midfielder and a dashing tall defender is a nice profile spread for the future.

Cox will have the hand to remould the team, which is needed after the 2022 & 2024 GF debacles.

Edit: Coupled with the offfield changes in the coaching ranks, VFL / Academy and new CEO, 2026 will mark a new era. Which i hope will turn out to be a very successful one.

[Auntie.Gerald]

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/46493202/afl-draft-combine-2025-sam-grlj-willem-duursma-gold-coast-suns-dyson-sharp

for those that missed the combine player stats