Our finals series starts now

[reigning premier]

I thank that last year we were hurt by the week off in the finals. That an playing a very average Freo. They were far from their best and it was a pretty soft win for us in the end. Probably why we were so soft in the first half of the grand final.

In any case, I seriously doubt we'll have to worry about getting a week off in the final series this year. Next week off we have will be the start of our off season!

[Plugger46]

We were. Have we shown any sign this year that we still are?

Also, Geelong were a decent chance in '05.

We've come within 3 goals of the best two sides in it (Geelong and the Eagles) without Hall and Kennelly. Both of those games away from home too I might add. On face value, they're pretty handy performances.

We'd have to be full-strength, but yeah I still believe we can beat anyone on any given day.

[top40]

To have any hope of winning the flag this year, we have to win every game for the rest of the season.

Every game has finals-like importance.

I agree totally. We can do it because we are great end of season performers.

Here is an interesting stat. Since 2004, from Round 15 onwards our home record stands at 16 games, 15 wins and 1 loss. The one loss was that tragic August night in 04 when the Kangaroos came back from 40 points down at 3/4time. Otherwise:

2004
R15 Adelaide 58-45 W S.C.G.
R18 Brisbane Lions 83-51 W S.C.G.
R19 Kangaroos 112-118 L S.C.G
R21 Essendon 110-90 W TS
EF West Coast 75-34 W TS

2005
R15 Geelong 105-51 W S.C.G.
R17 West Coast 88-67 W S.C.G
R20 Brisbane Lions 124-40 W TS
R21 Kangaroos 101-64 W S.C.G
SF Geelong 56-53 W S.C.G.

2006
R16 Richmond 101-53 W S.C.G.
R18 Essendon 116-73 W S.C.G
R21 Brisbane Lions 97-40 W TS
R22 Carlton 136-44 W S.C.G.
PF Fremantle 127-92 W TS

2007
R15 Carlton 162-100 W S.C.G.

None of the wins except Adelaide (04) and Geelong (SF 05) were even close.


In order of tough games for the rest of home and away season, here's my predictions:

1. Round 19 St Kilda. Ross Lyon's style for the Saints does not suit us, (a bit like the Crows). Vital game for both teams. Also a big Telstra Stadium crowd never assists the Swans. Our above home record is the best thing going for us. Hopefully a very close game that goes our way this time

2. Round 21 Collingwood. We have to be keener than the Magpie boys than what arose a few weeks ago at Telstra Stadium. That said, MCG at this time of year suits us. Swans by 3 goals

3. Round 20 Brisbane. Our recent Gabba record is good. We must however stop Jonathan Brown. Swans by 3 goals

4. Round 22 Hawthorn. Very good team the Hawks, but they're getting tired and overwhelmed. Its an afternoon game, (whereupon we have lost only one day game this year against Geelong). Further, memories of a win a few weeks ago, and the SCG venue will ensure victory.

5. Round 18 Melbourne. Should be OK. They're not familiar with Canberra

6. Round 17 Richmond. Should be OK, hopefully a big win

[hammo]

I appreciate the work you've gone to collating those stats but wouldn't it be more accurate and complete to include AWAY games as well?

The Geelong loss last year stands out as an obvious one.

[NMWBloods]

Yep - good work, but I agree with Hammo - given only half our games are at home, the away record is important.

Just looking quickly, our away record is:

2004: 2-2
2005: 3-1
2006: 2-2

[reigning premier]

what yall think about moving the hawks game to telstra?
last home game, last round...could be vying for a home elimination final and maybe even a top4 possie, 60,000+ not unlikely........

In the words of the great Peter Griffin.... "No, Freaking... way"

Not only is the stadium a sterile barn with no atmosphere, our game goes down about two levels.

Redevelopment or not, 32,000 screaming lunatics at SCG beats the crap out of 75,000 at telstra!

[dendol]

Agree that I we cant drop even one game and still be any chance to win the flag this year. Games against Richmond melbourne and Brisbane are clearly must wins (and probably win impressively), and games against Saints, Hawks and Pies will be the ones that will prove to the players if they can still do it this year. Drop any of those and we wont make top4, and therefore won't be able to win 4 (interstate) finals games in a row to claim the flag.

I dont buy it that we've got proven finals experience and can just "turn it on" when it counts, if after 22 rounds we still drop games which we simply NEED to win.

[hammo]

Not only is the stadium a sterile barn with no atmosphere, our game goes down about two levels.

Where's the facts to back up this myth you are perpetuating?

Aside form the two losses this year, our record at Telstra is probably better than the SCG.

There was a key final last year that I thought we played OK in.

And there are more than a few SCG shockers that have been put in over the years.

[mcs]

you are probably right hammo but Ive been at both games this year at Telstra and we have been terrible in both (Bar the comeback quarter against WC). We have played much better overall at the SCG this year. The atmosphere at Telstra I must agree is terrible no matter how full it is as well.

And as for last years key final- we played well but Freo were average imo that night to say the least. They hit week 3 of the finals and ran out of legs.

[ScottH]

Where's the facts to back up this myth you are perpetuating?

Aside form the two losses this year, our record at Telstra is probably better than the SCG.

There was a key final last year that I thought we played OK in.

And there are more than a few SCG shockers that have been put in over the years.

P	W	D	L	GF-BF	For	GA-BA		Agn	%	Win%	100+F	100+A
20	13	0	7 	280-234	1914	225-210 	1560	122.69 	65.00	7	2

Team		P	W	D	L	GF-BF	For	GA-BA		Agn	%	Win%	100+F	100+A
Melbourne	1	1	0	0 	17-9	111	15-9 		99	112.12 	100.00	1	0
Sydney		20	13	0	7 	280-234	1914	225-210 	1560	122.69 	65.00	7	2
Collingwood	5	3	0	2 	59-71	425	55-52 		382	111.26 	60.00	0	0
West Coast	2	1	0	1 	15-18	108	21-22 		148	72.97 	50.00	0	0
Brisbane Lions	3	1	0	2 	26-24	180	41-31 		277	64.98 	33.33	1	1
Essendon	4	1	0	3 	50-42	342	62-48 		420	81.43 	25.00	0	2
Richmond	1	0	0	1 	11-10	76	17-14 		116	65.52 	0.00	0	1
Geelong		1	0	0	1 	13-7	85	15-17 		107	79.44 	0.00	0	1
Fremantle	1	0	0	1 	14-8	92	19-13 		127	72.44 	0.00	0	1
Carlton		2	0	0	2 	20-21	141	35-28 		238	59.24 	0.00	0	1

Not a bad record there.

[dendol]

In the words of the great Peter Griffin.... "No, Freaking... way"

Not only is the stadium a sterile barn with no atmosphere, our game goes down about two levels.

Redevelopment or not, 32,000 screaming lunatics at SCG beats the crap out of 75,000 at telstra!

I'd take the 75000 at telstra. There was plenty of atmosphere at the Collingwood game where Tadhg kicked the winning goal a few years back (2004 i think),

[dazza]

What about the game at Telstra Stadium when Ricky Mott missed a sitter from directly in front of goals

Wasn't that against Essendon ?

Can someone please tell me when that was as I have forgotten ?

[reigning premier]

I'd take the 75000 at telstra. There was plenty of atmosphere at the Collingwood game where Tadhg kicked the winning goal a few years back (2004 i think),

If I have to wait 3 or more years for a great atmosphere AND an important win, I might give it up!!!

[reigning premier]

Where's the facts to back up this myth you are perpetuating?

Aside form the two losses this year, our record at Telstra is probably better than the SCG.

There was a key final last year that I thought we played OK in.

And there are more than a few SCG shockers that have been put in over the years.

OK.. prove it.... Let's have a look at this year for a start... Then we'll talk about perpetuating myths...

Care to dig out the results for us??? Let's analyse SCG win ratio Vs TS win ratio for a start... Get back to me when you have those details and we'll discuss further...

[573v30]

Comparing our win-loss record since 2002 since that was when Telstra Stadium was first used for AFL matches.

SCG - 54 games, 38 wins, 16 losses (70.37%)
Telstra Stadium - 20 games, 13 wins, 7 losses (65%)